Kozyrev on Putin
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@Aqua-Letifer said in Kozyrev on Putin:
@Mik said in Kozyrev on Putin:
I would have to agree. With him. Putin sees something to gain and annihalation is not it.
Sure, but what does a losing Russia look like in this context? What's he willing to live with?
During the Cuban missile crisis, it was alleged that Kennedy sought a way for Khrushchev to be able to back down without losing face. I don't see a way that Putin can back down. And appeasement isn't nearly as popular as it once was. In an ideal world, Ukraine should keep sovereignty and retake lost territory including Crimea. But then I'd like to believe in unicorns and the tooth fairy.
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@Aqua-Letifer said in Kozyrev on Putin:
@kluurs @jon-nyc What odds do you give nukes? I don't see how we don't get there from here.
Anybody who wants a nice comfy high status life wouldn't deploy nukes. We can hope that includes Putin and his circle.
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@Horace said in Kozyrev on Putin:
@Aqua-Letifer said in Kozyrev on Putin:
@kluurs @jon-nyc What odds do you give nukes? I don't see how we don't get there from here.
Anybody who wants a nice comfy high status life wouldn't deploy nukes.
How do you figure?
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@Aqua-Letifer said in Kozyrev on Putin:
@kluurs @jon-nyc What odds do you give nukes? I don't see how we don't get there from here.
I don't see any way where Ukraine goes back to pre-2014 borders while Putin lives. I don't think Russia will use nukes. I believe Russia will by the end of the summer control Ukraine after a fierce cost to both sides.
I am guessing a higher probability that Russia will launch some limited but significant cyber attacks against the West to discourage greater support of Ukraine - probably hitting Europe harder than the US. Hit infrastructure and economic targets in Europe - and attack a few key financial enterprises in the US. What Biden is threatening Putin with if this happens is anyone's guess as we've already hit Russia with nearly everything we have in the cupboard.
In the past, it was always felt that tactical nukes would be used if Russia planned a blitz across eastern Europe - but looking at the ineptness of the current campaign, "blitz" seems off the table. I don't see nukes coming into play - even if the tide turns in Ukraine and miraculously, Russian troops are repelled out of the country - unless Crimea was attacked. He then might feel he needs to save face.
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@Aqua-Letifer said in Kozyrev on Putin:
@Horace said in Kozyrev on Putin:
@Aqua-Letifer said in Kozyrev on Putin:
@kluurs @jon-nyc What odds do you give nukes? I don't see how we don't get there from here.
Anybody who wants a nice comfy high status life wouldn't deploy nukes.
How do you figure?
I figure a post-nuclear war world will no longer be comfy for anybody, even those at the top of hierarchies, as long as they remember what it used to be.
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@kluurs said in Kozyrev on Putin:
@Aqua-Letifer said in Kozyrev on Putin:
@kluurs @jon-nyc What odds do you give nukes? I don't see how we don't get there from here.
I don't see any way where Ukraine goes back to pre-2014 borders while Putin lives. I don't think Russia will use nukes. I believe Russia will by the end of the summer control Ukraine after a fierce cost to both sides.
I am guessing a higher probability that Russia will launch some limited but significant cyber attacks against the West to discourage greater support of Ukraine - probably hitting Europe harder than the US. Hit infrastructure and economic targets in Europe - and attack a few key financial enterprises in the US. What Biden is threatening Putin with if this happens is anyone's guess as we've already hit Russia with nearly everything we have in the cupboard.
In the past, it was always felt that tactical nukes would be used if Russia planned a blitz across eastern Europe - but looking at the ineptness of the current campaign, "blitz" seems off the table. I don't see nukes coming into play - even if the tide turns in Ukraine and miraculously, Russian troops are repelled out of the country - unless Crimea was attacked. He then might feel he needs to save face.
What about a No-Fly Zone in Ukraine?
Or maybe a modern day version of the AVG, featuring an international group of pilots?
“Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”
Warning: I post things that interest me. Read and comment at your own discretion.
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@Horace said in Kozyrev on Putin:
@Aqua-Letifer said in Kozyrev on Putin:
@Horace said in Kozyrev on Putin:
@Aqua-Letifer said in Kozyrev on Putin:
@kluurs @jon-nyc What odds do you give nukes? I don't see how we don't get there from here.
Anybody who wants a nice comfy high status life wouldn't deploy nukes.
How do you figure?
I figure a post-nuclear war world will no longer be comfy for anybody, even those at the top of hierarchies, as long as they remember what it used to be.
Anybody who thinks that a nuclear war would improve the world in any way whatsoever needs to be given a set of crayons and one of those lab-coats that fastens at the back.
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What about a No-Fly Zone in Ukraine?
Or maybe a modern day version of the AVG, featuring an international group of pilots?
I could imagine pilots being contracted to provide air support and other Soldier of Fortune types showing up to "beat those commies" into submission. The US and allies could covertly support them.
Of course, Putin would see that as license for indiscretions to sabotage NATO capabilities. Again, I think Putin feels he has a great advantage over his adversaries once this moves further into asymmetric warfare as he's already been hit pretty hard and may feel he has less to lose moving forward.
