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The New Coffee Room

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  3. Sanctions against Russia

Sanctions against Russia

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  • G George K
    26 Feb 2022, 17:01

    Turkey:

    R Offline
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    Renauda
    wrote on 26 Feb 2022, 17:23 last edited by
    #20

    @George-K

    There is no confirmation from Turkey that it will close the straits to Russian warships. If it were to do so it might be in contravention of the Montreux Convention which gives Russia the right for its navy it to return to or access its bases in the Black Sea. Not sure though.

    Elbows up!

    G 1 Reply Last reply 26 Feb 2022, 17:39
    • G Offline
      G Offline
      George K
      wrote on 26 Feb 2022, 17:24 last edited by
      #21

      Kazakhstan No help from us, Vlad:

      Kazakhstan, one of Russia's closest allies and a southern neighbor, is denying a request for its troops to join the offensive in Ukraine, officials said Friday.

      Additionally, the former Soviet republic said it is not recognizing the Russia-created breakaway republics upheld by Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, as a pretext for its aggression in Ukraine.

      Despite ceasefire accords covering the disputed land, Putin on Monday declared Russia's recognition of Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) as independent states.

      The surprising development from a traditional ally of Russia has the support of the United States.

      “We welcome Kazakhstan’s announcement that they will not recognize the LPR and DPR," the National Security Council said in a statement. "We also welcome Kazakhstan’s refusal to send its forces to join Putin’s war in Ukraine."

      Borat hardest hit.

      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

      1 Reply Last reply
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        Mik
        wrote on 26 Feb 2022, 17:30 last edited by
        #22

        I seriously doubt Turkey would take this step unilaterally. It wouldn't be strategically important anyway. This is a ground assault and naval vessels would be of little importance, even for supplies.

        “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

        R 1 Reply Last reply 26 Feb 2022, 17:34
        • M Mik
          26 Feb 2022, 17:30

          I seriously doubt Turkey would take this step unilaterally. It wouldn't be strategically important anyway. This is a ground assault and naval vessels would be of little importance, even for supplies.

          R Offline
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          Renauda
          wrote on 26 Feb 2022, 17:34 last edited by
          #23

          @Mik

          I agree Mik. It would considerably up the ante and pit a founding member of NATO against Russia.

          Elbows up!

          1 Reply Last reply
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            Axtremus
            wrote on 26 Feb 2022, 17:34 last edited by
            #24

            I wouldn’t mind another Borat video right about now.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • R Renauda
              26 Feb 2022, 17:23

              @George-K

              There is no confirmation from Turkey that it will close the straits to Russian warships. If it were to do so it might be in contravention of the Montreux Convention which gives Russia the right for its navy it to return to or access its bases in the Black Sea. Not sure though.

              G Offline
              G Offline
              George K
              wrote on 26 Feb 2022, 17:39 last edited by
              #25

              @Renauda said in Sanctions?:

              @George-K

              There is no confirmation from Turkey that it will close the straits to Russian warships.

              https://news.yahoo.com/turkey-cannot-stop-russian-warships-102841759.html

              If it were to do so it might be in contravention of the Montreux Convention which gives Russia the right for its navy it to return to or access its bases in the Black Sea. Not sure though.

              Because the Russians respect treaties agreements so much these days, the Turks should do the same.

              "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

              The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

              R 1 Reply Last reply 26 Feb 2022, 17:44
              • G George K
                26 Feb 2022, 17:39

                @Renauda said in Sanctions?:

                @George-K

                There is no confirmation from Turkey that it will close the straits to Russian warships.

                https://news.yahoo.com/turkey-cannot-stop-russian-warships-102841759.html

                If it were to do so it might be in contravention of the Montreux Convention which gives Russia the right for its navy it to return to or access its bases in the Black Sea. Not sure though.

                Because the Russians respect treaties agreements so much these days, the Turks should do the same.

                R Offline
                R Offline
                Renauda
                wrote on 26 Feb 2022, 17:44 last edited by
                #26

                @George-K

                I know George but “whataboutism” isn’t going to help the situation. Russian propaganda is all “whataaboutism” and look where we are now.

                Elbows up!

                G 1 Reply Last reply 26 Feb 2022, 17:56
                • M Offline
                  M Offline
                  Mik
                  wrote on 26 Feb 2022, 17:49 last edited by
                  #27

                  Just saw on Twitter that Germany will move on SWIFT.

                  What we need is a Marshall Plan scale effort to get energy supplies to Europe and to utterly halt the purchase of Russian energy. I really don't care if my costs go up.

                  “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                  1 Reply Last reply
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                    Jolly
                    wrote on 26 Feb 2022, 17:54 last edited by
                    #28

                    If Germany is the lone holdout on Swift, I think they would cave if we could help provide the lost gas.

                    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • R Renauda
                      26 Feb 2022, 17:44

                      @George-K

                      I know George but “whataboutism” isn’t going to help the situation. Russian propaganda is all “whataaboutism” and look where we are now.

                      G Offline
                      G Offline
                      George K
                      wrote on 26 Feb 2022, 17:56 last edited by
                      #29

                      @Renauda said in Sanctions?:

                      @George-K

                      I know George but “whataboutism” isn’t going to help the situation.

                      I know, and I apologize for the simplistic look. But treaties exist for a reason, and when one party fails to abide, there's no reason other parties to abide.

                      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • G Offline
                        G Offline
                        George K
                        wrote on 26 Feb 2022, 21:05 last edited by
                        #30

                        "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                        The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • G Offline
                          G Offline
                          George K
                          wrote on 26 Feb 2022, 22:52 last edited by
                          #31

                          "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                          The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • G Offline
                            G Offline
                            George K
                            wrote on 26 Feb 2022, 23:59 last edited by
                            #32

                            "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                            The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • G Offline
                              G Offline
                              George K
                              wrote on 27 Feb 2022, 15:14 last edited by
                              #33

                              "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                              The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • G Offline
                                G Offline
                                George K
                                wrote on 27 Feb 2022, 18:18 last edited by
                                #34

                                An interesting read on sanctions.

                                Frum: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-russian-sanctions-work/622940/?utm_source=feed

                                About $132 billion of Russia’s reserves takes the form of physical gold in vaults inside Russia. Russia could pledge that gold or sell it. But to whom? Most potential customers for Russian gold can be threatened with sanctions. Those who might defy the threat couldn’t afford to take very much: The entire GDP of Venezuela, for example, is only about $480 billion.

                                Only one customer is rich enough to take significant gold from a sanctioned nation like Russia: China.

                                Would China agree to take it? And if China did agree, would it not demand a big and painful discount for helping out a distressed seller like a sanctioned Russia? How exactly would the transaction occur? Would China be content merely to take legal ownership of the gold and leave the metal inside in a Russian vault? Doubtful. One ton of gold is worth about $61 million, so $139 billion would weigh about 2,290 metric tons. It’s certainly conceivable for a locomotive to pull a train of that weight from Moscow to Beijing. But it would constitute a considerable logistical and security undertaking to load, move, unload, and secure the gold for a train trip across Siberia.

                                Western banks do not need to freeze the Russian central bank’s accounts altogether. They could put the Russian central bank on an allowance, so many billions a month. That would keep Russia limping along, but under severe restraint—asphyxiation rather than sudden strangulation. The West could not prevent Putin from spending foreign currency on his war or favoring cronies in the distribution of foreign currency. But the restraint would rapidly make the terrible cost of Putin’s decisions much more rapidly visible to every power sector in Russian society. It’s not the full blow, but it might hurt enough—and of course, the full blow could be applied later.

                                The central-bank-sanctions tool will also deliver a humbling but indispensable lesson to Putin. Putin launched his war against Ukraine in part to assert Russia’s great-power status—a war to make Russia great again. Putin seemingly did not understand that violence is only one form of power, and not ultimately the most decisive. Even energy production takes a country only so far. The power Putin is about to feel is the power of producers against gangsters, of governments that inspire trust against governments that rule by fear. Russia depends on the dollar, the euro, the pound, and other currencies in ways that few around Putin could comprehend. The liberal democracies that created those trusted currencies are about to make Putin’s cronies feel what they never troubled to learn. Squeeze them.

                                "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                A 1 Reply Last reply 27 Feb 2022, 18:26
                                • G George K
                                  27 Feb 2022, 18:18

                                  An interesting read on sanctions.

                                  Frum: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-russian-sanctions-work/622940/?utm_source=feed

                                  About $132 billion of Russia’s reserves takes the form of physical gold in vaults inside Russia. Russia could pledge that gold or sell it. But to whom? Most potential customers for Russian gold can be threatened with sanctions. Those who might defy the threat couldn’t afford to take very much: The entire GDP of Venezuela, for example, is only about $480 billion.

                                  Only one customer is rich enough to take significant gold from a sanctioned nation like Russia: China.

                                  Would China agree to take it? And if China did agree, would it not demand a big and painful discount for helping out a distressed seller like a sanctioned Russia? How exactly would the transaction occur? Would China be content merely to take legal ownership of the gold and leave the metal inside in a Russian vault? Doubtful. One ton of gold is worth about $61 million, so $139 billion would weigh about 2,290 metric tons. It’s certainly conceivable for a locomotive to pull a train of that weight from Moscow to Beijing. But it would constitute a considerable logistical and security undertaking to load, move, unload, and secure the gold for a train trip across Siberia.

                                  Western banks do not need to freeze the Russian central bank’s accounts altogether. They could put the Russian central bank on an allowance, so many billions a month. That would keep Russia limping along, but under severe restraint—asphyxiation rather than sudden strangulation. The West could not prevent Putin from spending foreign currency on his war or favoring cronies in the distribution of foreign currency. But the restraint would rapidly make the terrible cost of Putin’s decisions much more rapidly visible to every power sector in Russian society. It’s not the full blow, but it might hurt enough—and of course, the full blow could be applied later.

                                  The central-bank-sanctions tool will also deliver a humbling but indispensable lesson to Putin. Putin launched his war against Ukraine in part to assert Russia’s great-power status—a war to make Russia great again. Putin seemingly did not understand that violence is only one form of power, and not ultimately the most decisive. Even energy production takes a country only so far. The power Putin is about to feel is the power of producers against gangsters, of governments that inspire trust against governments that rule by fear. Russia depends on the dollar, the euro, the pound, and other currencies in ways that few around Putin could comprehend. The liberal democracies that created those trusted currencies are about to make Putin’s cronies feel what they never troubled to learn. Squeeze them.

                                  A Offline
                                  A Offline
                                  Axtremus
                                  wrote on 27 Feb 2022, 18:26 last edited by
                                  #35

                                  @George-K

                                  One ton of gold is worth about $61 million, so $139 billion would weigh about 2,290 metric tons. It’s certainly conceivable for a locomotive to pull a train of that weight from Moscow to Beijing.

                                  Good backdrop for a heist/action flick.

                                  G 1 Reply Last reply 27 Feb 2022, 18:34
                                  • A Axtremus
                                    27 Feb 2022, 18:26

                                    @George-K

                                    One ton of gold is worth about $61 million, so $139 billion would weigh about 2,290 metric tons. It’s certainly conceivable for a locomotive to pull a train of that weight from Moscow to Beijing.

                                    Good backdrop for a heist/action flick.

                                    G Offline
                                    G Offline
                                    George K
                                    wrote on 27 Feb 2022, 18:34 last edited by
                                    #36

                                    @Axtremus Yes, isn’t it?

                                    But, you have to fence it!

                                    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • G Offline
                                      G Offline
                                      George K
                                      wrote on 28 Feb 2022, 00:52 last edited by
                                      #37

                                      "Vasily? That package you were expecting? There will be a delay.

                                      FedEx Corp. and United Parcel Service Inc. have suspended shipments into Russia amid the country's invasion of Ukraine.

                                      The U.S.-based shipping giants had earlier cut off shipments to and from Ukraine and were preparing contingency plans for their Russian operations. Now, both have temporarily stopped delivering shipments bound for Russia.

                                      UPS said that packages en route to Russia and Ukraine will be returned free of charge to the sender if possible.

                                      "Our focus is on the safety of our people, providing continued service and minimizing disruption to our customers," UPS said in a service alert on its website. "UPS continues to closely monitor the situation and will re-establish service as soon as it is practical and safe to do so."

                                      FedEx issued a similar service alert on its website. “We are closely monitoring the situation and have contingency plans in place,” FedEx said.

                                      (where's my "wink" emoji?)

                                      Interesting. On a different, but perhaps related, level, how does this differ from Twitter, et al, banning postings on their platforms? Are they suspending deliveries because they "focus on the safety of our people," or is is because of an ideological difference.

                                      IOW, Russia (in this case) is an asshole. We know that China is, amirite? Will UPS and FedEx do the same?

                                      Something tells me they won't.

                                      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • G Offline
                                        G Offline
                                        George K
                                        wrote on 28 Feb 2022, 13:00 last edited by
                                        #38

                                        Well....

                                        "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                        The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • G Offline
                                          G Offline
                                          George K
                                          wrote on 28 Feb 2022, 13:40 last edited by
                                          #39

                                          "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                          The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

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