Sanctions against Russia
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Russian President Vladimir Putin was emboldened to launch his full-scale invasion of Ukraine because he believed that President Biden was bluffing when he threatened serious consequences.
On Thursday, Biden proved him right.
Not only did the United States and its NATO allies fail to kick Moscow out of the SWIFT banking network used by almost all major financial institutions to wire money — which would effectively exclude Russia from the global economy — Biden failed to sanction Putin’s two most significant exports: oil and natural gas. To the contrary, Biden announced that he had specifically designed the sanctions “to allow energy payments to continue.”
Putin gambled that Biden was not willing to risk sanctioning his lucrative energy exports, and thus driving up energy prices for U.S. consumers just months before the midterm elections. The bet paid off.
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SWIFT:
https://www.foxnews.com/world/europe-close-to-approving-swift-germany-wary
European leaders have moved closer to cutting Russia off from the SWIFT banking system as Germany remains the sole holdout over implementing the extreme measure following the invasion of Ukraine.
Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine Thursday local time. World leaders and diplomats widely condemned the attack and promised strong sanctions in response.
Foreign ministers of the Baltic States and Poland wanted to cut Russia from SWIFT as part of the initial wave of sanctions, but Germany, Italy, Hungary and Cyprus resisted the move.
But after non-stop negotiations, Ukraine has managed to convince the leaders of Italy, Hungary and Cyprus to stand down and agree. Only Germany remains wary, as its leaders say they remain open to the possibility but must "calculate the cost" to its own citizens, Reuters reported.
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"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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@George-K said in Sanctions?:
Turkey:
If we (along with Europe) were to push a No-Fly Zone and enforce it, this thing would be over.
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There is no confirmation from Turkey that it will close the straits to Russian warships. If it were to do so it might be in contravention of the Montreux Convention which gives Russia the right for its navy it to return to or access its bases in the Black Sea. Not sure though.
Elbows up!
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Kazakhstan No help from us, Vlad:
Kazakhstan, one of Russia's closest allies and a southern neighbor, is denying a request for its troops to join the offensive in Ukraine, officials said Friday.
Additionally, the former Soviet republic said it is not recognizing the Russia-created breakaway republics upheld by Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, as a pretext for its aggression in Ukraine.
Despite ceasefire accords covering the disputed land, Putin on Monday declared Russia's recognition of Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) as independent states.
The surprising development from a traditional ally of Russia has the support of the United States.
“We welcome Kazakhstan’s announcement that they will not recognize the LPR and DPR," the National Security Council said in a statement. "We also welcome Kazakhstan’s refusal to send its forces to join Putin’s war in Ukraine."
Borat hardest hit.
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I seriously doubt Turkey would take this step unilaterally. It wouldn't be strategically important anyway. This is a ground assault and naval vessels would be of little importance, even for supplies.
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I seriously doubt Turkey would take this step unilaterally. It wouldn't be strategically important anyway. This is a ground assault and naval vessels would be of little importance, even for supplies.
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There is no confirmation from Turkey that it will close the straits to Russian warships. If it were to do so it might be in contravention of the Montreux Convention which gives Russia the right for its navy it to return to or access its bases in the Black Sea. Not sure though.
@Renauda said in Sanctions?:
There is no confirmation from Turkey that it will close the straits to Russian warships.
https://news.yahoo.com/turkey-cannot-stop-russian-warships-102841759.html
If it were to do so it might be in contravention of the Montreux Convention which gives Russia the right for its navy it to return to or access its bases in the Black Sea. Not sure though.
Because the Russians respect treaties agreements so much these days, the Turks should do the same.
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@Renauda said in Sanctions?:
There is no confirmation from Turkey that it will close the straits to Russian warships.
https://news.yahoo.com/turkey-cannot-stop-russian-warships-102841759.html
If it were to do so it might be in contravention of the Montreux Convention which gives Russia the right for its navy it to return to or access its bases in the Black Sea. Not sure though.
Because the Russians respect treaties agreements so much these days, the Turks should do the same.
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I know George but “whataboutism” isn’t going to help the situation. Russian propaganda is all “whataaboutism” and look where we are now.
@Renauda said in Sanctions?:
I know George but “whataboutism” isn’t going to help the situation.
I know, and I apologize for the simplistic look. But treaties exist for a reason, and when one party fails to abide, there's no reason other parties to abide.
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An interesting read on sanctions.
Frum: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-russian-sanctions-work/622940/?utm_source=feed
About $132 billion of Russia’s reserves takes the form of physical gold in vaults inside Russia. Russia could pledge that gold or sell it. But to whom? Most potential customers for Russian gold can be threatened with sanctions. Those who might defy the threat couldn’t afford to take very much: The entire GDP of Venezuela, for example, is only about $480 billion.
Only one customer is rich enough to take significant gold from a sanctioned nation like Russia: China.
Would China agree to take it? And if China did agree, would it not demand a big and painful discount for helping out a distressed seller like a sanctioned Russia? How exactly would the transaction occur? Would China be content merely to take legal ownership of the gold and leave the metal inside in a Russian vault? Doubtful. One ton of gold is worth about $61 million, so $139 billion would weigh about 2,290 metric tons. It’s certainly conceivable for a locomotive to pull a train of that weight from Moscow to Beijing. But it would constitute a considerable logistical and security undertaking to load, move, unload, and secure the gold for a train trip across Siberia.
Western banks do not need to freeze the Russian central bank’s accounts altogether. They could put the Russian central bank on an allowance, so many billions a month. That would keep Russia limping along, but under severe restraint—asphyxiation rather than sudden strangulation. The West could not prevent Putin from spending foreign currency on his war or favoring cronies in the distribution of foreign currency. But the restraint would rapidly make the terrible cost of Putin’s decisions much more rapidly visible to every power sector in Russian society. It’s not the full blow, but it might hurt enough—and of course, the full blow could be applied later.
The central-bank-sanctions tool will also deliver a humbling but indispensable lesson to Putin. Putin launched his war against Ukraine in part to assert Russia’s great-power status—a war to make Russia great again. Putin seemingly did not understand that violence is only one form of power, and not ultimately the most decisive. Even energy production takes a country only so far. The power Putin is about to feel is the power of producers against gangsters, of governments that inspire trust against governments that rule by fear. Russia depends on the dollar, the euro, the pound, and other currencies in ways that few around Putin could comprehend. The liberal democracies that created those trusted currencies are about to make Putin’s cronies feel what they never troubled to learn. Squeeze them.
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An interesting read on sanctions.
Frum: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-russian-sanctions-work/622940/?utm_source=feed
About $132 billion of Russia’s reserves takes the form of physical gold in vaults inside Russia. Russia could pledge that gold or sell it. But to whom? Most potential customers for Russian gold can be threatened with sanctions. Those who might defy the threat couldn’t afford to take very much: The entire GDP of Venezuela, for example, is only about $480 billion.
Only one customer is rich enough to take significant gold from a sanctioned nation like Russia: China.
Would China agree to take it? And if China did agree, would it not demand a big and painful discount for helping out a distressed seller like a sanctioned Russia? How exactly would the transaction occur? Would China be content merely to take legal ownership of the gold and leave the metal inside in a Russian vault? Doubtful. One ton of gold is worth about $61 million, so $139 billion would weigh about 2,290 metric tons. It’s certainly conceivable for a locomotive to pull a train of that weight from Moscow to Beijing. But it would constitute a considerable logistical and security undertaking to load, move, unload, and secure the gold for a train trip across Siberia.
Western banks do not need to freeze the Russian central bank’s accounts altogether. They could put the Russian central bank on an allowance, so many billions a month. That would keep Russia limping along, but under severe restraint—asphyxiation rather than sudden strangulation. The West could not prevent Putin from spending foreign currency on his war or favoring cronies in the distribution of foreign currency. But the restraint would rapidly make the terrible cost of Putin’s decisions much more rapidly visible to every power sector in Russian society. It’s not the full blow, but it might hurt enough—and of course, the full blow could be applied later.
The central-bank-sanctions tool will also deliver a humbling but indispensable lesson to Putin. Putin launched his war against Ukraine in part to assert Russia’s great-power status—a war to make Russia great again. Putin seemingly did not understand that violence is only one form of power, and not ultimately the most decisive. Even energy production takes a country only so far. The power Putin is about to feel is the power of producers against gangsters, of governments that inspire trust against governments that rule by fear. Russia depends on the dollar, the euro, the pound, and other currencies in ways that few around Putin could comprehend. The liberal democracies that created those trusted currencies are about to make Putin’s cronies feel what they never troubled to learn. Squeeze them.
