The Rebound
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I don't think that the rebound can be anything but that V shape, and of course the percentage changes relative to say May 1 will be dramatic. I just think he is making too much of it. I also think Trump voters will realize that he was dealing with exactly the same scenario the rest of the developed world was and handed it much the same. This is not something he precipitated.
The biggest problem with Biden aside from his questionable fitness for the job is that he will likely pick a VP that is NOT the moderate he is. Then there is a very good chance that within his first term we would see President Harris or Klobuchar or, God forbid, Abrams.
“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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They seem to be wishing away the very real chance of a second wave of Covid.
They're also ignoring the fact that this election might not be about the economy, particularly if there's a second wave of Covid.
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I don't think that the rebound can be anything but that V shape, and of course the percentage changes relative to say May 1 will be dramatic. I just think he is making too much of it. I also think Trump voters will realize that he was dealing with exactly the same scenario the rest of the developed world was and handed it much the same. This is not something he precipitated.
The biggest problem with Biden aside from his questionable fitness for the job is that he will likely pick a VP that is NOT the moderate he is. Then there is a very good chance that within his first term we would see President Harris or Klobuchar or, God forbid, Abrams.
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@Mik said in The Rebound:
God forbid, Abrams.
She could take some of the morbidly obese vote away from Mr. Trump.
There are a lot of morbidly obese voters.
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This is a distinct possibility.
Memories are short. If things are on the by Nov upswing - the sentiment "see we shoulda re-opened way before we did" will be pretty mainstream.
People will link to articles that say "pandemic could last until 2021" - and claim that the MSM were in on it. Just how the MSM were in on covid denialism in Jan and Feb.
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I think the economy will be better than now. And it will be easy to spread statistics that back that up.
"President Trump has created XXXXXXXX jobs in the last 5 months."
"Quarter to quarter growth in the economy is up XX%, an unprecident gain!!"Regards to a second wave of the virus, it may not come until after the election, so it may not be a factor.
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I think it will look more like a silhouette of a key...
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@jon-nyc said in The Rebound:
We won’t see a V recovery.
Even if there’s a treatment breakthrough.
I don't think we can avoid it if jobs start back up. The unemployment drop was so very precipitous, it will go up pretty sharply but not as high as it was. Overall GDP will not recover nearly as fast.
“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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@jon-nyc said in The Rebound:
We won’t see a V recovery.
Even if there’s a treatment breakthrough.
I don't think we can avoid it if jobs start back up. The unemployment drop was so very precipitous, it will go up pretty sharply but not as high as it was. Overall GDP will not recover nearly as fast.
@Mik said in The Rebound:
@jon-nyc said in The Rebound:
We won’t see a V recovery.
Even if there’s a treatment breakthrough.
I don't think we can avoid it if jobs start back up. The unemployment drop was so very precipitous, it will go up pretty sharply but not as high as it was. Overall GDP will not recover nearly as fast.
I don’t see how consumer confidence returns until the virus is beaten.
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If we rush the re-opening too much, the risk for a "2nd wave" goes up, then the economic recovery will not be V-shaped.
@Axtremus said in The Rebound:
If we rush the re-opening too much, the risk for a "2nd wave" goes up, then the economic recovery will not be V-shaped.
What does too much mean?
What does risk goes up mean, up to what?
How will the recovery be shaped?
The recovery for the whole world or just select locations? -
Could we pin this topic, so we can look back on it to see who was right? I'm having a good laugh as I read all this.
My prediction: it will go away faster than anyone thought possible, the vaccine will be developed earlier than anyone thought possible, and the economic recovery will be rapid and astounding, as people are chafing at the bit to get back to work and pursue the American dream. Those that were laid off will have enthusiasm for working again, and will start buying again like crazy. And, they will try to buy USA stuff, not Chinese.
Along the way, no fingers will be broken, although there will be many tired fingers, given all the finger pointing over the next year.
