"You're damn right I'm taking hydroxychloroquine."
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If the United States had begun imposing social distancing measures one week earlier than it did in March, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the coronavirus outbreak, according to new estimates from Columbia University disease modelers. And 54,000 had it started two weeks earlier.
I wasn’t sure if I should post this here or in the “US has shitloads” thread.
So 36,000 to 54,000 lives could’ve been saved, and that is only as of May 3rd.
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@89th
"If theUnited StatesCCP hadbegun imposing social distancing measureswarned the world even one week earlier than it didin March, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the coronavirus outbreak, according to new estimates from Columbia University disease modelers. And 54,000 had it started two weeks earlier."Not sure I was able to FIFY to make my point. Have you been able to find, or come across, the effect that would have occured if China had closed down international commercial flights when they closed down their domestic flights from Wuhan?
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@89th said in "You're damn right I'm taking hydroxychloroquine.":
If the United States had begun imposing social distancing measures one week earlier than it did in March, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the coronavirus outbreak, according to new estimates from Columbia University disease modelers. And 54,000 had it started two weeks earlier.
I wasn’t sure if I should post this here or in the “US has shitloads” thread.
So 36,000 to 54,000 lives could’ve been saved, and that is only as of May 3rd.
If this chart was not politically biased it would tell us how many more would have died if social distancing started a week later
And 2 weeks later
And the title would include "how early action saved lives"
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Xenon, your knowledge about the economy comes from what you read. Your knowledge of presidents consists of Obama and Bush. I've watched how presidents affect the economy going all the way back to John F. Kennedy. I sat in line at gas stations. I saw the 21 plus % home loans. I saw the mortgage collapse created by the democrats. I saw the economy take off like a rocket under Reagan. I saw Bill Clinton take credit for the economic improvements created by a Republican Congress. So don't tell me about what you read in a book.
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89th, if seat belt laws had been passed prior to the first sale of cars capable of speeds over 25 mph it would have saved more lives. That has just as much truth, and is just as stupid and just as much a piece of worthless information as your chart and your argument.
Hell, lets go back even further... if someone has cut down that apple tree before Eve found it NOBODY would have died...
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89th and xenon remind me of an old joke:
Two guys are in a hot air balloon and are lost. So they decide to follow a small river. As they are floating through the air following the little river, they spot a man sitting on the bank, fishing.
One of them yells down to the man fishing "where am i?" The man fishing yells up his answer.. "you're up there!"
The continue to float through the air following the river. The guy who had yelled down to the man fishing said "I hope that accountant has a good day fishing." The other guy asks "how do you know he's an accountant?" The first guy says "by the answer he gave to my question.. it was 100% accurate, and 100% useless."
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@Larry said in "You're damn right I'm taking hydroxychloroquine.":
Xenon, your knowledge about the economy comes from what you read. Your knowledge of presidents consists of Obama and Bush. I've watched how presidents affect the economy going all the way back to John at. Kennedy. I sat in line at gas stations. I saw the 21 plus % home loans. I saw the mortgage collapse created by the democrats. I saw the economy take off like a rocket under Reagan. I saw Bill Clinton take credit for the economic improvements created by a Republican Congress. So don't tell me about what you read in a book.
That's a read of it. You can attribute those things to the President.
But let's take the Reagan example - because I'm more familiar with it.
The guy who defeated the malaise was Volcker. He started his rate raising during Carter, and the "fever" didn't break until after Reagan became President. Reagan actually put tremendous pressure on him to lower rates during his re-election bid. As I said - during emergencies, the President does come more into focus - so you're not wrong.
But that's the exception and not the rule.
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@xenon said in "You're damn right I'm taking hydroxychloroquine.":
@Larry said in "You're damn right I'm taking hydroxychloroquine.":
Xenon, your knowledge about the economy comes from what you read. Your knowledge of presidents consists of Obama and Bush. I've watched how presidents affect the economy going all the way back to John at. Kennedy. I sat in line at gas stations. I saw the 21 plus % home loans. I saw the mortgage collapse created by the democrats. I saw the economy take off like a rocket under Reagan. I saw Bill Clinton take credit for the economic improvements created by a Republican Congress. So don't tell me about what you read in a book.
That's a read of it. You can attribute those things to the President.
But let's take the Reagan example - because I'm more familiar with it.
The guy who defeated the malaise was Volcker. He started his rate raising during Carter, and the "fever" didn't break until after Reagan became President. Reagan actually put tremendous pressure on him to lower rates during his re-election bid. As I said - during emergencies, the President does come more into focus - so you're not wrong.
But that's the exception and not the rule.
Know what is wrong with your reasoning? Perception.
In a consumer driven economy, which our economy is, perception is reality. If people believe the economy is humming or is about to really take off, they have enough confidence to spend money. As the dollars turn over multiple times, the prophesy of a good economy fulfills itself.
I remember Carter well. Shucks, I met Carter. Nice man. Lousy President. Don't agree with all of his theology, but that didn't stop him from begging votes from Louisiana Baptists. But I digress...People had no confidence in Carter and the economy did not take off until the country bought into Morning in America.
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@Larry said in "You're damn right I'm taking hydroxychloroquine.":
89th and xenon remind me of an old joke:
Two guys are in a hot air balloon and are lost. So they decide to follow a small river. As they are floating through the air following the little river, they spot a man sitting on the bank, fishing.
One of them yells down to the man fishing "where am i?" The man fishing yells up his answer.. "you're up there!"
The continue to float through the air following the river. The guy who had yelled down to the man fishing said "I hope that accountant has a good day fishing." The other guy asks "how do you know he's an accountant?" The first guy says "by the answer he gave to my question.. it was 100% accurate, and 100% useless."
The second half of the joke is even better, and strangely appropriate:
The man below responded, “You must be in politics.”
“I am,” replied the balloonist, “but how did you know?”
“Well,” said the man, “you don’t know where you are or where you are going. You have risen to where you are due to a large quantity of hot air. You made a promise which you have no idea how to keep, and you expect people beneath you to solve your problems. The fact is you are in exactly the same position you were in before we met, but now, somehow, it’s my fault!”
(It's actually supposed to be management rather than politics, but let's not quibble
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@Mik said in "You're damn right I'm taking hydroxychloroquine.":
The fallacy in 89th's assertion is that the federal government does not impose shutdowns. The states do. Can you imagine if Trump had done that unilaterally? He'd not be just Hitler, but Hitler squared!
Had he encouraged states to, or even taken the deadliness off the virus seriously, some states may have shut down earlier than they did. Most waited until the last week of March.
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@Copper said in "You're damn right I'm taking hydroxychloroquine.":
If this chart was not politically biased it would tell us how many more would have died if social distancing started a week later
First, if it were President Hillary Clinton I’d be saying the same thing. This isn’t political.
Second, the analysis is relevant as you had a president downplaying the virus in mid March.
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@89th said in "You're damn right I'm taking hydroxychloroquine.":
Here’s a good test. If it wasn’t President Trump but President Hillary Clinton in the office and the EXACT same everything happened, would you be saying the same thing about her handling of the pandemic? I know I would.
@Larry I’m waiting for your answer.
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@89th said in "You're damn right I'm taking hydroxychloroquine.":
@Copper said in "You're damn right I'm taking hydroxychloroquine.":
If this chart was not politically biased it would tell us how many more would have died if social distancing started a week later
First, if it were President Hillary Clinton I’d be saying the same thing. This isn’t political.
Second, the analysis is relevant as you had a president downplaying the virus in mid March.
He wasn't alone.
How many lives did he save by not waiting another week?
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@89th said in "You're damn right I'm taking hydroxychloroquine.":
@Mik said in "You're damn right I'm taking hydroxychloroquine.":
The fallacy in 89th's assertion is that the federal government does not impose shutdowns. The states do. Can you imagine if Trump had done that unilaterally? He'd not be just Hitler, but Hitler squared!
Had he encouraged states to, or even taken the deadliness off the virus seriously, some states may have shut down earlier than they did. Most waited until the last week of March.
I guess he could have sent in the Army and closed them at bayonet point.
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I don't think the criticism of the timing of the lockdown is really fair. There's a lot of retrospective wisdom being applied, here.
I do think that quite a bit of Trump's communication has been poor, and some of his Tweets are unbelievable - that Free Minnesota etc. Tweet was very poorly timed, based on the official policy they were trying to implement.
Trump's strength, and his weakness, is that he's such a loose cannon. He needs to learn to shut up over serious stuff. Playing to the peanut gallery, which he frequently does with his tweets, might be OK when you're talking about day-to-day politics, but it's really dumb in a major crisis.
Proud supporter of Plan 2525. Everything you think, do and say will be in the pill you took today.
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@Doctor-Phibes said in "You're damn right I'm taking hydroxychloroquine.":
I don't think the criticism of the timing of the lockdown is really fair. There's a lot of retrospective wisdom being applied, here.
I do think that quite a bit of Trump's communication has been poor, and some of his Tweets are unbelievable - that Free Minnesota etc. Tweet was very poorly timed, based on the official policy they were trying to implement.
Trump's strength, and his weakness, is that he's such a loose cannon. He needs to learn to shut up over serious stuff. Playing to the peanut gallery, which he frequently does with his tweets, might be OK when you're talking about day-to-day politics, but it's really dumb in a major crisis.
I'll be damned...A fair criticism.
