Previous Pandemics

[Improviso]

@George-K said in Previous Pandemics:

1968 Pandemic

Funny, how we talked about the effect on us for the 1968 Pandemic and those of us that lived it, hardly remember it.

And yet, it killed 1 million people worldwide and 100,000 in the US. I don't recall the USA, let alone the entire world shutting down.

So, why this time?

Well... back in '68, we didn't have millions of people flying globally like we do today, which I believe aided in the global transmission of this one.

[Horace]

I think it's safe to say that our life expectations are much higher these days than for folk 100 years ago.

[jon-nyc]

If this one was only on track to kill 100k without a shutdown we wouldn’t have had it.

[George K]

@jon-nyc exactly.

There is no timeline shown for the previous ones. This has be just over 4 months.

[jon-nyc]

Right and with a pretty large scale shutdown.

[Copper]

So the assumption is that the shutdown has had some effect.

[taiwan_girl]

@Copper said in Previous Pandemics:

So the assumption is that the shutdown has had some effect.

I think it has. I think without the shutdown and other "social" things in place worldwide, the dead toll would be much higher.

What do you think Copper?

[Loki]

@taiwan_girl said in Previous Pandemics:

@Copper said in Previous Pandemics:

So the assumption is that the shutdown has had some effect.

I think it has. I think without the shutdown and other "social" things in place worldwide, the dead toll would be much higher.

What do you think Copper?

The open question is did we inflect overall deaths or are we spreading them out?

[LuFins Dad]

@George-K said in Previous Pandemics:

@jon-nyc exactly.

There is no timeline shown for the previous ones. This has be just over 4 months.

Equivalency would be about 160,000 over 8 months. Nothing to sneeze at. I think the bigger issue is the number of people being hospitalized.

[LuFins Dad]

@Loki said in Previous Pandemics:

@taiwan_girl said in Previous Pandemics:

@Copper said in Previous Pandemics:

So the assumption is that the shutdown has had some effect.

I think it has. I think without the shutdown and other "social" things in place worldwide, the dead toll would be much higher.

What do you think Copper?

The open question is did we inflect overall deaths or are we spreading them out?

And that’s the other question. I haven’t been following, but has the theory that there would be just as many cases but spread out been disproven yet?

[LuFins Dad]

And let’s not pretend that current generations aren’t more risk averse than prior.

[jon-nyc]

@LuFins-Dad said in Previous Pandemics:

And that’s the other question. I haven’t been following, but has the theory that there would be just as many cases but spread out been disproven yet?

Sovereign is he who sets the null hypothesis.

[Copper]

@taiwan_girl said in Previous Pandemics:

@Copper said in Previous Pandemics:

So the assumption is that the shutdown has had some effect.

I think it has. I think without the shutdown and other "social" things in place worldwide, the dead toll would be much higher.

What do you think Copper?

I have no basis for that kind of speculation.

I know just about everyone is an expert on this, but I think that at some point just about everyone is speculating. Which is, of course, to be expected.

It would be nice if we knew for sure. If we did we could take the appropriate action.

We shut everything down with only slightly less information than we have now opening up.

I think it is reasonable to assume the lock-down hurt a lot of people financially. Maybe it will help in the long run.