Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years
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@jolly said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:
Inflation.
Really? Is this just your expectation or do you have data to back this up?
@axtremus said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:
@jolly said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:
Inflation.
Really? Is this just your expectation or do you have data to back this up?
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Thanks, @LuFins-Dad. If you are at liberty to talk about it ... are piano prices, digital and acoustic alike, undergoing inflation too?
The acoustic ones sure use a lot of lumber and metal, and the digital ones use microchips, something that’s reported to be in short supply.
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This from Goldman Sachs, on the subject of real tangible effects a presidential election can have:
The megacaps, Apple, Alphabet, Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) accounted for 18% of total cash spending in 2020.
The potential for a new tax code is the biggest risk for spending in 2022 and beyond, Goldman says.
"From a corporate cash spending perspective, three proposals are key: (1) Raising the statutory federal corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%; (2) raising the minimum tax rate on foreign income from 11% to 21%; and (3) raising the personal tax rate on long-term capital gains and qualified dividends from 23.8% to 43.4% for people with annual incomes above $1 million," the strategists write.
"Our political economists believe that Democrats will pass a scaled-down version of tax reform later this year," they said. "Assuming this view is correct, we expect less S&P 500 cash spending will occur than would have otherwise been the case without tax reform."
"We also expect higher taxes will weigh on buybacks more than dividends, capex, and R&D. Repurchases have exhibited greater variability than nearly ever other use of cash."
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I love the way when the market does well under a conservative, all the liberals say it's because of other things, and when the market does well under a liberal, all the conservatives say it's because of other things.
It goes down, it goes up, it goes down, it goes up again.
Yeah, yeah, I know, we're on the verge of catastrophe, we're always on the verge of freaking catastrophe. There comes a point when you need to stop listening to this bullshit.
Personally, as long as my 401K is good in the medium to long term , I'm not going to worry about it.
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I love the way when the market does well under a conservative, all the liberals say it's because of other things, and when the market does well under a liberal, all the conservatives say it's because of other things.
It goes down, it goes up, it goes down, it goes up again.
Yeah, yeah, I know, we're on the verge of catastrophe, we're always on the verge of freaking catastrophe. There comes a point when you need to stop listening to this bullshit.
Personally, as long as my 401K is good in the medium to long term , I'm not going to worry about it.
@doctor-phibes said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:
I love the way when the market does well under a conservative, all the liberals say it's because of other things, and when the market does well under a liberal, all the conservatives say it's because of other things.
It goes down, it goes up, it goes down, it goes up again.
Yeah, yeah, I know, we're on the verge of catastrophe, we're always on the verge of freaking catastrophe. There comes a point when you need to stop listening to this bullshit.
Personally, as long as my 401K is good in the medium to long term , I'm not going to worry about it.
It would be nice to at least arrive at a point in the discussion where there is acknowledgment that policy affects the stock market, and that elections affect policy. But we can't even get that far here.
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@doctor-phibes said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:
I love the way when the market does well under a conservative, all the liberals say it's because of other things, and when the market does well under a liberal, all the conservatives say it's because of other things.
It goes down, it goes up, it goes down, it goes up again.
Yeah, yeah, I know, we're on the verge of catastrophe, we're always on the verge of freaking catastrophe. There comes a point when you need to stop listening to this bullshit.
Personally, as long as my 401K is good in the medium to long term , I'm not going to worry about it.
It would be nice to at least arrive at a point in the discussion where there is acknowledgment that policy affects the stock market, and that elections affect policy. But we can't even get that far here.
@horace said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:
@doctor-phibes said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:
I love the way when the market does well under a conservative, all the liberals say it's because of other things, and when the market does well under a liberal, all the conservatives say it's because of other things.
It goes down, it goes up, it goes down, it goes up again.
Yeah, yeah, I know, we're on the verge of catastrophe, we're always on the verge of freaking catastrophe. There comes a point when you need to stop listening to this bullshit.
Personally, as long as my 401K is good in the medium to long term , I'm not going to worry about it.
It would be nice to at least arrive at a point in the discussion where there is acknowledgment that policy affects the stock market, and that elections affect policy. But we can't even get that far here.
So you get "liberal" Bill Clinton and his IT bubble, and you get "conservative" George W Bush, and his housing crisis-related crash, and then you get Obama's slow recovery, and then you get Trump's boom and then Covid-bust, and apparently Joe Biden's boom, and then you get a load of people coming out with all kinds of partisan stuff to try and explain away the difference between what should have happened in their perfect world, and what actually happened.
I'm not entirely convinced that the stock market is the thing we should be focusing on when figuring out whether a president is successful or not.
I was only joking
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I call BS. The market was smoking hot before the election and continued that way. Biden inherited this market. He did not cause it.
This is not to say that Trump caused it necessarily, but for damn sure Biden did not. The market drops every time he opens his mouth about higher taxes and even more profligate spending.
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I call BS. The market was smoking hot before the election and continued that way. Biden inherited this market. He did not cause it.
This is not to say that Trump caused it necessarily, but for damn sure Biden did not. The market drops every time he opens his mouth about higher taxes and even more profligate spending.
@mik said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:
I call BS. The market was smoking hot before the election and continued that way. Biden inherited this market. He did not cause it.
The same was said of Obama's crash. But only by his supporters.
I think the market's mostly going up because there's light at the end of the Covid tunnel.
People look at everything through political glasses, when there's no real need.
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@horace said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:
@doctor-phibes said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:
I love the way when the market does well under a conservative, all the liberals say it's because of other things, and when the market does well under a liberal, all the conservatives say it's because of other things.
It goes down, it goes up, it goes down, it goes up again.
Yeah, yeah, I know, we're on the verge of catastrophe, we're always on the verge of freaking catastrophe. There comes a point when you need to stop listening to this bullshit.
Personally, as long as my 401K is good in the medium to long term , I'm not going to worry about it.
It would be nice to at least arrive at a point in the discussion where there is acknowledgment that policy affects the stock market, and that elections affect policy. But we can't even get that far here.
So you get "liberal" Bill Clinton and his IT bubble, and you get "conservative" George W Bush, and his housing crisis-related crash, and then you get Obama's slow recovery, and then you get Trump's boom and then Covid-bust, and apparently Joe Biden's boom, and then you get a load of people coming out with all kinds of partisan stuff to try and explain away the difference between what should have happened in their perfect world, and what actually happened.
I'm not entirely convinced that the stock market is the thing we should be focusing on when figuring out whether a president is successful or not.
@doctor-phibes said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:
@horace said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:
@doctor-phibes said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:
I love the way when the market does well under a conservative, all the liberals say it's because of other things, and when the market does well under a liberal, all the conservatives say it's because of other things.
It goes down, it goes up, it goes down, it goes up again.
Yeah, yeah, I know, we're on the verge of catastrophe, we're always on the verge of freaking catastrophe. There comes a point when you need to stop listening to this bullshit.
Personally, as long as my 401K is good in the medium to long term , I'm not going to worry about it.
It would be nice to at least arrive at a point in the discussion where there is acknowledgment that policy affects the stock market, and that elections affect policy. But we can't even get that far here.
So you get "liberal" Bill Clinton and his IT bubble, and you get "conservative" George W Bush, and his housing crisis-related crash, and then you get Obama's slow recovery, and then you get Trump's boom and then Covid-bust, and apparently Joe Biden's boom, and then you get a load of people coming out with all kinds of partisan stuff to try and explain away the difference between what should have happened in their perfect world, and what actually happened.
I'm not entirely convinced that the stock market is the thing we should be focusing on when figuring out whether a president is successful or not.
Yes there are a lot of variables. One of which, an important one, is policy, especially tax policy. No amount of digging one's heels into the notion that elections don't matter for the stock market, will change that.
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@doctor-phibes said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:
@horace said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:
@doctor-phibes said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:
I love the way when the market does well under a conservative, all the liberals say it's because of other things, and when the market does well under a liberal, all the conservatives say it's because of other things.
It goes down, it goes up, it goes down, it goes up again.
Yeah, yeah, I know, we're on the verge of catastrophe, we're always on the verge of freaking catastrophe. There comes a point when you need to stop listening to this bullshit.
Personally, as long as my 401K is good in the medium to long term , I'm not going to worry about it.
It would be nice to at least arrive at a point in the discussion where there is acknowledgment that policy affects the stock market, and that elections affect policy. But we can't even get that far here.
So you get "liberal" Bill Clinton and his IT bubble, and you get "conservative" George W Bush, and his housing crisis-related crash, and then you get Obama's slow recovery, and then you get Trump's boom and then Covid-bust, and apparently Joe Biden's boom, and then you get a load of people coming out with all kinds of partisan stuff to try and explain away the difference between what should have happened in their perfect world, and what actually happened.
I'm not entirely convinced that the stock market is the thing we should be focusing on when figuring out whether a president is successful or not.
Yes there are a lot of variables. One of which, an important one, is policy, especially tax policy. No amount of digging one's heels into the notion that elections don't matter for the stock market, will change that.
@horace said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:
Yes there are a lot of variables. One of which, an important one, is policy, especially tax policy. No amount of digging one's heels into the notion that elections don't matter for the stock market, will change that.
It's not that it doesn't matter. As you said though - it's one variable among many.
It'd be like talking about putting together a championship football team, and we keep talking about the kicker (The President).
Sure - it matters to have a good kicker. But it's one small aspect.
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As far as the definition of a successful president goes, that isn't the discussion. Heck, buried deep beneath the surface of many on the left, is the desire to see the stock market burn. That would be deemed a success by them. I'm not interested in anybody's value judgement of the stock market.
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@horace said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:
Yes there are a lot of variables. One of which, an important one, is policy, especially tax policy. No amount of digging one's heels into the notion that elections don't matter for the stock market, will change that.
It's not that it doesn't matter. As you said though - it's one variable among many.
It'd be like talking about putting together a championship football team, and we keep talking about the kicker (The President).
Sure - it matters to have a good kicker. But it's one small aspect.
@xenon said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:
@horace said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:
Yes there are a lot of variables. One of which, an important one, is policy, especially tax policy. No amount of digging one's heels into the notion that elections don't matter for the stock market, will change that.
It's not that it doesn't matter. As you said though - it's one variable among many.
It'd be like talking about putting together a championship football team, and we keep talking about the kicker (The President).
Sure - it matters to have a good kicker. But it's one small aspect.
Ok. That's an attempt to quantify the importance of a president to the stock market. Duly noted. I certainly agree that free market capitalism is a much more important player. Tax policy is like a weight of some size, be it small or large, tied to the ankles of every player on the field.
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Thanks, @LuFins-Dad. If you are at liberty to talk about it ... are piano prices, digital and acoustic alike, undergoing inflation too?
The acoustic ones sure use a lot of lumber and metal, and the digital ones use microchips, something that’s reported to be in short supply.
@axtremus said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:
Thanks, @LuFins-Dad. If you are at liberty to talk about it ... are piano prices, digital and acoustic alike, undergoing inflation too?
The acoustic ones sure use a lot of lumber and metal, and the digital ones use microchips, something that’s reported to be in short supply.
Let's just say that if you are considering buying a piano in the next few years, you may want to speed up the process.
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You can’t find people to paint, build, renovate etc these days. There are not enough drivers for gas trucks.
Inflation is here, big time. Look at the lack of “sale” prices on items and in your grocery store.
We are in a bubble, costs are going way up. What it means for this year and when on the financial markets is anyone’s guess. It will all be obvious in retrospect.
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Inflation hurts bonds and savings more than anything else. Retirees are stuck with a pretty shitty choice right now.
