Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years

[taiwan_girl]

Other than President Franklin Roosevelt, the US stock market has done better under President Biden since election day than any other President in the last 100 years.

Good thing that @Horace and I doesn't think that the president has much to do with the economy and stock market as many people think - otherwise he may have to say that President Biden is doing pretty good so far. (Just teasing you Horace. :couple_with_heart: )

(https://www.macrotrends.net/2613/stock-market-performance-by-president-from-election-date)

(PS Before someone here claims that the current stock market is due to President Trump, I have been told by many people here that the stock market is future look, not past look. If not, then President Trumps success must be part due to President Obama, right?)

[Jolly]

@taiwan_girl said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:

Other than President Franklin Roosevelt, the US stock market has done better under President Biden since election day than any other President in the last 100 years.

Good thing that @Horace and I doesn't think that the president has much to do with the economy and stock market as many people think - otherwise he may have to say that President Biden is doing pretty good so far. (Just teasing you Horace. :couple_with_heart: )

(https://www.macrotrends.net/2613/stock-market-performance-by-president-from-election-date)

(PS Before someone here claims that the current stock market is due to President Trump, I have been told by many people here that the stock market is future look, not past look. If not, then President Trumps success must be part due to President Obama, right?)

Inflation.

[Axtremus]

@jolly said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:

Inflation.

Really? Is this just your expectation or do you have data to back this up?

[LuFins Dad]

@axtremus said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:

@jolly said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:

Inflation.

Really? Is this just your expectation or do you have data to back this up?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-we-are-seeing-substantial-inflation-and-are-raising-prices-220539307.html

[LuFins Dad]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/these-companies-that-are-jacking-up-prices-because-of-surging-inflation-194542023.html

[Axtremus]

Thanks, @LuFins-Dad. If you are at liberty to talk about it ... are piano prices, digital and acoustic alike, undergoing inflation too?

The acoustic ones sure use a lot of lumber and metal, and the digital ones use microchips, something that’s reported to be in short supply.

[Horace]

This from Goldman Sachs, on the subject of real tangible effects a presidential election can have:

The megacaps, Apple, Alphabet, Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) accounted for 18% of total cash spending in 2020.

The potential for a new tax code is the biggest risk for spending in 2022 and beyond, Goldman says.

"From a corporate cash spending perspective, three proposals are key: (1) Raising the statutory federal corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%; (2) raising the minimum tax rate on foreign income from 11% to 21%; and (3) raising the personal tax rate on long-term capital gains and qualified dividends from 23.8% to 43.4% for people with annual incomes above $1 million," the strategists write.

"Our political economists believe that Democrats will pass a scaled-down version of tax reform later this year," they said. "Assuming this view is correct, we expect less S&P 500 cash spending will occur than would have otherwise been the case without tax reform."

"We also expect higher taxes will weigh on buybacks more than dividends, capex, and R&D. Repurchases have exhibited greater variability than nearly ever other use of cash."

[Doctor Phibes]

I love the way when the market does well under a conservative, all the liberals say it's because of other things, and when the market does well under a liberal, all the conservatives say it's because of other things.

It goes down, it goes up, it goes down, it goes up again.

Yeah, yeah, I know, we're on the verge of catastrophe, we're always on the verge of freaking catastrophe. There comes a point when you need to stop listening to this bullshit.

Personally, as long as my 401K is good in the medium to long term , I'm not going to worry about it.

[Horace]

@doctor-phibes said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:

I love the way when the market does well under a conservative, all the liberals say it's because of other things, and when the market does well under a liberal, all the conservatives say it's because of other things.

It goes down, it goes up, it goes down, it goes up again.

Yeah, yeah, I know, we're on the verge of catastrophe, we're always on the verge of freaking catastrophe. There comes a point when you need to stop listening to this bullshit.

Personally, as long as my 401K is good in the medium to long term , I'm not going to worry about it.

It would be nice to at least arrive at a point in the discussion where there is acknowledgment that policy affects the stock market, and that elections affect policy. But we can't even get that far here.

[Doctor Phibes]

@horace said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:

@doctor-phibes said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:

I love the way when the market does well under a conservative, all the liberals say it's because of other things, and when the market does well under a liberal, all the conservatives say it's because of other things.

It goes down, it goes up, it goes down, it goes up again.

Yeah, yeah, I know, we're on the verge of catastrophe, we're always on the verge of freaking catastrophe. There comes a point when you need to stop listening to this bullshit.

Personally, as long as my 401K is good in the medium to long term , I'm not going to worry about it.

It would be nice to at least arrive at a point in the discussion where there is acknowledgment that policy affects the stock market, and that elections affect policy. But we can't even get that far here.

So you get "liberal" Bill Clinton and his IT bubble, and you get "conservative" George W Bush, and his housing crisis-related crash, and then you get Obama's slow recovery, and then you get Trump's boom and then Covid-bust, and apparently Joe Biden's boom, and then you get a load of people coming out with all kinds of partisan stuff to try and explain away the difference between what should have happened in their perfect world, and what actually happened.

I'm not entirely convinced that the stock market is the thing we should be focusing on when figuring out whether a president is successful or not.

[Mik]

I call BS. The market was smoking hot before the election and continued that way. Biden inherited this market. He did not cause it.

This is not to say that Trump caused it necessarily, but for damn sure Biden did not. The market drops every time he opens his mouth about higher taxes and even more profligate spending.

[Doctor Phibes]

@mik said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:

I call BS. The market was smoking hot before the election and continued that way. Biden inherited this market. He did not cause it.

The same was said of Obama's crash. But only by his supporters.

I think the market's mostly going up because there's light at the end of the Covid tunnel.

People look at everything through political glasses, when there's no real need.

[Horace]

@doctor-phibes said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:

@horace said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:

@doctor-phibes said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:

I love the way when the market does well under a conservative, all the liberals say it's because of other things, and when the market does well under a liberal, all the conservatives say it's because of other things.

It goes down, it goes up, it goes down, it goes up again.

Yeah, yeah, I know, we're on the verge of catastrophe, we're always on the verge of freaking catastrophe. There comes a point when you need to stop listening to this bullshit.

Personally, as long as my 401K is good in the medium to long term , I'm not going to worry about it.

It would be nice to at least arrive at a point in the discussion where there is acknowledgment that policy affects the stock market, and that elections affect policy. But we can't even get that far here.

So you get "liberal" Bill Clinton and his IT bubble, and you get "conservative" George W Bush, and his housing crisis-related crash, and then you get Obama's slow recovery, and then you get Trump's boom and then Covid-bust, and apparently Joe Biden's boom, and then you get a load of people coming out with all kinds of partisan stuff to try and explain away the difference between what should have happened in their perfect world, and what actually happened.

I'm not entirely convinced that the stock market is the thing we should be focusing on when figuring out whether a president is successful or not.

Yes there are a lot of variables. One of which, an important one, is policy, especially tax policy. No amount of digging one's heels into the notion that elections don't matter for the stock market, will change that.

[Mik]

No sane individual could possibly deny that Obama inherited his economic disaster.

The market has been going up since the end of the first wave. Even with the massive second wave it continued up.

[xenon]

@horace said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:

Yes there are a lot of variables. One of which, an important one, is policy, especially tax policy. No amount of digging one's heels into the notion that elections don't matter for the stock market, will change that.

It's not that it doesn't matter. As you said though - it's one variable among many.

It'd be like talking about putting together a championship football team, and we keep talking about the kicker (The President).

Sure - it matters to have a good kicker. But it's one small aspect.

[Horace]

As far as the definition of a successful president goes, that isn't the discussion. Heck, buried deep beneath the surface of many on the left, is the desire to see the stock market burn. That would be deemed a success by them. I'm not interested in anybody's value judgement of the stock market.

[Horace]

@xenon said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:

@horace said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:

Yes there are a lot of variables. One of which, an important one, is policy, especially tax policy. No amount of digging one's heels into the notion that elections don't matter for the stock market, will change that.

It's not that it doesn't matter. As you said though - it's one variable among many.

It'd be like talking about putting together a championship football team, and we keep talking about the kicker (The President).

Sure - it matters to have a good kicker. But it's one small aspect.

Ok. That's an attempt to quantify the importance of a president to the stock market. Duly noted. I certainly agree that free market capitalism is a much more important player. Tax policy is like a weight of some size, be it small or large, tied to the ankles of every player on the field.

[LuFins Dad]

@axtremus said in Best Stock Market Since Election in 75 Years:

Thanks, @LuFins-Dad. If you are at liberty to talk about it ... are piano prices, digital and acoustic alike, undergoing inflation too?

The acoustic ones sure use a lot of lumber and metal, and the digital ones use microchips, something that’s reported to be in short supply.

Let's just say that if you are considering buying a piano in the next few years, you may want to speed up the process.

[Loki]

Let’s say the stock market corrects by 30%? I’d say it’s enough of a risk based on Biden’s spending ask that folks here better keep some of their powder dry because they may be inadvertently proving the opposite of what is written here.

[Mik]

We need to let the economy cool down from all the funny money before dumping a bunch more in.