Almost a Year Later, There’s Still No Evidence Showing Governments Can Control the Spread of Covid-19
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I have no knowledge of this author, or of the site.
tl;dr version: Everything the government did made no difference. He focuses a lot on Florida vs California, looking at mortality, cases, etc, pointing to seasonality as a factor in spread of the virus.
Florida has zero restrictions on bars, breweries, indoor dining, gyms, places of worship, gathering sizes, and almost all schools are offering in-person instruction. California, on the other hand, retains heavy restrictions in each of these areas. At the very least, Florida's hospitalizations and deaths per million should be substantially worse than California's. Those who predicted death and destruction as a consequence of Florida's September reopening simply cannot see these results as anything other than utterly remarkable. Even White House covid advisor Andy Slavitt, much to the establishment’s embarrassment, had no explanation for Florida’s success relative to California. Slavitt was reduced to parroting establishment talking points after admitting that Florida’s surprisingly great numbers were “just a little beyond our explanation.”
Lots of charts, including this one:
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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Climate? Is there a difference in Northern and Southern California?
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@jolly said in Almost a Year Later, There’s Still No Evidence Showing Governments Can Control the Spread of Covid-19:
Climate? Is there a difference in Northern and Southern California?
Possible, but the overall lack of correlation between government measures and incidence of disease in other states is interesting. A while ago, I posted a tweet about how South Dakota was a hotbed of disease because of its lack of strict measures, while North Dakota, with these measures, showed exactly the same pattern.
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Might as well drag Aqua into it...
So, what does that say about mask/no mask?
“Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”
Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton
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I don’t know how you come up with a single index as a state restriction metric when they vary so much over time and place (within state). And then try to compare that over a death/MM statistic that encompasses a large time frame.
Only non-witches get due process.
- Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
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I don’t know how you come up with a single index as a state restriction metric when they vary so much over time and place (within state). And then try to compare that over a death/MM statistic that encompasses a large time frame.
@jon-nyc said in Almost a Year Later, There’s Still No Evidence Showing Governments Can Control the Spread of Covid-19:
I don’t know how you come up with a single index as a state restriction metric when they vary so much over time and place (within state). And then try to compare that over a death/MM statistic that encompasses a large time frame.
That's sort of his point: all these varying measures seem to have made no difference. There's a chart that shows all states' data in one picture. It's the same pattern. Every state had the same peak in late 2020.
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As to your second point (Taiwan), I have no idea, other than, perhaps the population's compliance? The UK and US are pretty similar, and, iirc, the UK locked down much more than the US did.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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@jon-nyc said in Almost a Year Later, There’s Still No Evidence Showing Governments Can Control the Spread of Covid-19:
I don’t know how you come up with a single index as a state restriction metric when they vary so much over time and place (within state). And then try to compare that over a death/MM statistic that encompasses a large time frame.
That's sort of his point: all these varying measures seem to have made no difference. There's a chart that shows all states' data in one picture. It's the same pattern. Every state had the same peak in late 2020.
(
As to your second point (Taiwan), I have no idea, other than, perhaps the population's compliance? The UK and US are pretty similar, and, iirc, the UK locked down much more than the US did.
@george-k said in Almost a Year Later, There’s Still No Evidence Showing Governments Can Control the Spread of Covid-19:
As to your second point (Taiwan), I have no idea, other than, perhaps the population's compliance?
Doesn’t that totally undermine his thesis?
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@jon-nyc said in Almost a Year Later, There’s Still No Evidence Showing Governments Can Control the Spread of Covid-19:
I don’t know how you come up with a single index as a state restriction metric when they vary so much over time and place (within state). And then try to compare that over a death/MM statistic that encompasses a large time frame.
That's sort of his point: all these varying measures seem to have made no difference. There's a chart that shows all states' data in one picture. It's the same pattern. Every state had the same peak in late 2020.
(
As to your second point (Taiwan), I have no idea, other than, perhaps the population's compliance? The UK and US are pretty similar, and, iirc, the UK locked down much more than the US did.
@george-k said in Almost a Year Later, There’s Still No Evidence Showing Governments Can Control the Spread of Covid-19:
That's sort of his point: all these varying measures seem to have made no difference.
He can’t possibly show that with a single time-invariant metric for an entire state, many of which had huge variability across localities.
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I have no knowledge of this author, or of the site.
tl;dr version: Everything the government did made no difference. He focuses a lot on Florida vs California, looking at mortality, cases, etc, pointing to seasonality as a factor in spread of the virus.
Florida has zero restrictions on bars, breweries, indoor dining, gyms, places of worship, gathering sizes, and almost all schools are offering in-person instruction. California, on the other hand, retains heavy restrictions in each of these areas. At the very least, Florida's hospitalizations and deaths per million should be substantially worse than California's. Those who predicted death and destruction as a consequence of Florida's September reopening simply cannot see these results as anything other than utterly remarkable. Even White House covid advisor Andy Slavitt, much to the establishment’s embarrassment, had no explanation for Florida’s success relative to California. Slavitt was reduced to parroting establishment talking points after admitting that Florida’s surprisingly great numbers were “just a little beyond our explanation.”
Lots of charts, including this one:
@george-k said in Almost a Year Later, There’s Still No Evidence Showing Governments Can Control the Spread of Covid-19:
I have no knowledge of this author, or of the site.
Anthony graduated from Grove City College in 2018 with a B.A. in Economics. He has been a student of the Austrian School of Economics for over 8 years and a champion of Rothbardian libertarianism.
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That graphs says that no measures implemented to stop covid made any difference.
It also says that something made a difference.
But it wasn't the things included in the restriction index.
I wonder which component of the restriction index could be changed to make the restrictions look effective.
As the pressure grows to remove all restrictions and masks, this sort of graph will get more popular.
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Overall, perhaps. But it cannot account for individual instances where what you or I did made a difference. I choose to believe these results are skewed by compliance levels. Restrictions and compliance are two different things.
“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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If it's a choice between listening to Doctor Fauci, or a guy who describes himself as 'a champion of Rothbardian libertarianism' and who graduated 2 years ago, I'll take the guy who's actually qualified any time.
No, I don't mean the dickhead journalist.
I was only joking
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If it's a choice between listening to Doctor Fauci, or a guy who describes himself as 'a champion of Rothbardian libertarianism' and who graduated 2 years ago, I'll take the guy who's actually qualified any time.
No, I don't mean the dickhead journalist.
@doctor-phibes said in Almost a Year Later, There’s Still No Evidence Showing Governments Can Control the Spread of Covid-19:
If it's a choice between listening to Doctor Fauci, or a guy who describes himself as 'a champion of Rothbardian libertarianism' and who graduated 2 years ago, I'll take the guy who's actually qualified any time.
No, I don't mean the dickhead journalist.
Is Fauci more qualified than many other epidemiologists?
Or is he just more political?
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If it's a choice between listening to Doctor Fauci, or a guy who describes himself as 'a champion of Rothbardian libertarianism' and who graduated 2 years ago, I'll take the guy who's actually qualified any time.
No, I don't mean the dickhead journalist.
@doctor-phibes said in Almost a Year Later, There’s Still No Evidence Showing Governments Can Control the Spread of Covid-19:
If it's a choice between listening to Doctor Fauci, or a guy who describes himself as 'a champion of Rothbardian libertarianism' and who graduated 2 years ago, I'll take the guy who's actually qualified any time.
No, I don't mean the dickhead journalist.
I live in DC. I've learned to have multiple misgivings about anybody who's paycheck comes from The United States Government.
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I wasn't comparing him to other epidemiologists. I was comparing him to a guy who got a degree in economics two years ago.
What are the majority of experts saying?
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Overall, perhaps. But it cannot account for individual instances where what you or I did made a difference. I choose to believe these results are skewed by compliance levels. Restrictions and compliance are two different things.
@mik said in Almost a Year Later, There’s Still No Evidence Showing Governments Can Control the Spread of Covid-19:
Restrictions and compliance are two different things.
I think the point is somewhere near that
You can restrict whatever you want but it doesn't matter if citizens don't comply
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@jon-nyc said in Almost a Year Later, There’s Still No Evidence Showing Governments Can Control the Spread of Covid-19:
And how does he explain Taiwan vs UK?
Or Thailand or Singapore or New Zealand.
Of course, compliance by the people has a big big part of it.
Kind of a goofy article. For example, if no one follows stopping at a red light, and there many intersection accidents, he would probably say - "Government requirements for Red lights provide no safety for auto drivers"
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@mik said in Almost a Year Later, There’s Still No Evidence Showing Governments Can Control the Spread of Covid-19:
Restrictions and compliance are two different things.
I think the point is somewhere near that
You can restrict whatever you want but it doesn't matter if citizens don't comply
@copper said in Almost a Year Later, There’s Still No Evidence Showing Governments Can Control the Spread of Covid-19:
@mik said in Almost a Year Later, There’s Still No Evidence Showing Governments Can Control the Spread of Covid-19:
Restrictions and compliance are two different things.
I think the point is somewhere near that
You can restrict whatever you want but it doesn't matter if citizens don't comply
Bingo!
Guess who most non compliers are too? Yup! They follow the words of their master in all things.
I also think in my heart, not with evidence of course, that there are many more asymptomatics out there than they estimate. I think herd immunity is closer than estimated. It would be nice to have some test more readily available to see if one already had the dammed bug.
