The GOP revolts against DeWine on reopening
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the "do more to contain it, just shut up and do more to contain it" side is perfectly content with condemning the other side as evil until they manage to think up something measurable by which we'll know we no longer have to do more, at which point each of us will finally be able to put a price on a single human life. That will be nice. I'm going to save up and buy one.
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This really isn't that hard to specify at least. The idea has been spelled out for ages now. Lock down until two things happen:
- we build testing and tracing capacity
- new case count diminishes to a manageable number
Those two are are each other's metrics. The definition of 'manageable number' is that which can be handled by our testing and contract tracing capacity.
Then you can open up gradually as long as you stay within the limits of contract tracing capacity.
This is how you get society going again while maintaining a reproductive rate below 1. But it isn't really 'back to normal' until we have a vaccine and/or a reliable treatment. It is a 'dance'.
Many countries will do this successfully.
We probably won't, because of a lack of political will.
Only non-witches get due process.
- Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
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@Mik said in The GOP revolts against DeWine on reopening:
@Copper said in The GOP revolts against DeWine on reopening:
Yes, whining
“We oppose any plan that disproportionately prioritizes the economy over people’s lives,”
That is whining.
There is absolutely no indication that either lives or the economy can be measured.
It is just making virtuous noise.
That's nice but it doesn't lead anywhere.
I like lives as much as anyone. Go ahead and suggest that it has to be completely eradicated. At least that is something that can be discussed.
Your argument doesn't wash. One could turn your same argument on the pro-life movement. All that whining about unborn lives is just virtue signaling.
No.
I want a reason to reopen anything. What is that reason?
For abortion, the reason is the mother's choice. When she chooses, the baby dies, end of story. It is private.
When do we reopen? When the governor says. That is not supposed to be private, there has to be some criteria.
Nobody seems to even be talking about it. What is the goal? How is it measured?
A bunch of virtue signals doesn't get the job done, I want concrete goals. I'll don't even care if they change, just be a leader and put a stake in the ground.
@Copper said in The GOP revolts against DeWine on reopening:
@Mik said in The GOP revolts against DeWine on reopening:
@Copper said in The GOP revolts against DeWine on reopening:
Yes, whining
“We oppose any plan that disproportionately prioritizes the economy over people’s lives,”
That is whining.
There is absolutely no indication that either lives or the economy can be measured.
It is just making virtuous noise.
That's nice but it doesn't lead anywhere.
I like lives as much as anyone. Go ahead and suggest that it has to be completely eradicated. At least that is something that can be discussed.
Your argument doesn't wash. One could turn your same argument on the pro-life movement. All that whining about unborn lives is just virtue signaling.
No.
I want a reason to reopen anything. What is that reason?
For abortion, the reason is the mother's choice. When she chooses, the baby dies, end of story. It is private.
When do we reopen? When the governor says. That is not supposed to be private, there has to be some criteria.
Nobody seems to even be talking about it. What is the goal? How is it measured?
A bunch of virtue signals doesn't get the job done, I want concrete goals. I'll don't even care if they change, just be a leader and put a stake in the ground.
And concrete goals are being assessed and rolled out as we speak. Oh, and trying to get out of it by saying private/non-private is a bunch of hooey.
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This really isn't that hard to specify at least. The idea has been spelled out for ages now. Lock down until two things happen:
- we build testing and tracing capacity
- new case count diminishes to a manageable number
Those two are are each other's metrics. The definition of 'manageable number' is that which can be handled by our testing and contract tracing capacity.
Then you can open up gradually as long as you stay within the limits of contract tracing capacity.
This is how you get society going again while maintaining a reproductive rate below 1. But it isn't really 'back to normal' until we have a vaccine and/or a reliable treatment. It is a 'dance'.
Many countries will do this successfully.
We probably won't, because of a lack of political will.
@jon-nyc said in The GOP revolts against DeWine on reopening:
This really isn't that hard to specify at least. The idea has been spelled out for ages now. Lock down until two things happen:
- we build testing and tracing capacity
- new case count diminishes to a manageable number
Those two are are each other's metrics. The definition of 'manageable number' is that which can be handled by our testing and contract tracing capacity.
Then you can open up gradually as long as you stay within the limits of contract tracing capacity.
This is how you get society going again while maintaining a reproductive rate below 1. But it isn't really 'back to normal' until we have a vaccine and/or a reliable treatment. It is a 'dance'.
Many countries will do this successfully.
We probably won't, because of a lack of political will.
Is that a prediction? I'll take the other side of that. I mean if you think America is going to be a coronavirus disaster after we loosen up restrictions.
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private/non-private was a reply to the abortion analogy, abortion is private, governance is public.
This isn't abortion, I should have just ignored that, my bad
What jon said is just fine, what you said is fine.
I still have no clue from our elected leaders what will cause the opening to happen.
If the answer is, new case count diminishes to a manageable number.
That is great. That is what I thought the deal was - flatten the curve. But, of course, the flattened curve is undefined.
There should be a countdown clock hanging in Times Square with the manageable number on it, updating every time the number changes.
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@Horace said in The GOP revolts against DeWine on reopening:
Agreement or not, I would be curious what your measurable predictions are.
I made several here that I stand by to this day.
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So specific measurable predictions from that thread two+ weeks ago:
- active cases won't peak in April, despite models
- Effective reproductive rate stays above one
- People will think it's beat and relax and it'll go even higher
- when we look back at the end of the year, April will not be the month with the most cases or the most deaths.
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Somebody somewhere said we're at the point where we've been taking antibiotics for 5 days, despite being told to take them for 10, and we're feeling much better, and we really want a few beers, so we say sod it.
And then the bloody infection comes back again.
I was only joking
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Somebody somewhere said we're at the point where we've been taking antibiotics for 5 days, despite being told to take them for 10, and we're feeling much better, and we really want a few beers, so we say sod it.
And then the bloody infection comes back again.
@Doctor-Phibes said in The GOP revolts against DeWine on reopening:
Somebody somewhere said we're at the point where we've been taking antibiotics for 5 days, despite being told to take them for 10, and we're feeling much better, and we really want a few beers, so we say sod it.
And then the bloody infection comes back again.
Alcohol kills bacteria. Have you thought of injecting it to finish the job for the antibiotics?
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@Doctor-Phibes said in The GOP revolts against DeWine on reopening:
Somebody somewhere said we're at the point where we've been taking antibiotics for 5 days, despite being told to take them for 10, and we're feeling much better, and we really want a few beers, so we say sod it.
And then the bloody infection comes back again.
Alcohol kills bacteria. Have you thought of injecting it to finish the job for the antibiotics?
@Axtremus said in The GOP revolts against DeWine on reopening:
Alcohol kills bacteria. Have you thought of injecting it to finish the job for the antibiotics?
Working on it now, but via the oral route.
(George, who has seen IV EtOH given to suppress early labor)
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Somebody somewhere said we're at the point where we've been taking antibiotics for 5 days, despite being told to take them for 10, and we're feeling much better, and we really want a few beers, so we say sod it.
And then the bloody infection comes back again.
@Doctor-Phibes said in The GOP revolts against DeWine on reopening:
Somebody somewhere said we're at the point where we've been taking antibiotics for 5 days, despite being told to take them for 10, and we're feeling much better, and we really want a few beers, so we say sod it.
And then the bloody infection comes back again.
Great analogy since common wisdom knows that consuming alcohol effectively negates antibiotics...
Of course, alcohol doesn’t negate antibiotics, and only a few antibiotics carry warnings regarding alcohol, but for potential side effects, not because they stop the antibiotics from working...
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@Doctor-Phibes said in The GOP revolts against DeWine on reopening:
Somebody somewhere said we're at the point where we've been taking antibiotics for 5 days, despite being told to take them for 10, and we're feeling much better, and we really want a few beers, so we say sod it.
And then the bloody infection comes back again.
Great analogy since common wisdom knows that consuming alcohol effectively negates antibiotics...
Of course, alcohol doesn’t negate antibiotics, and only a few antibiotics carry warnings regarding alcohol, but for potential side effects, not because they stop the antibiotics from working...
@LuFins-Dad The “common wisdom” is that you don’t stop antibiotics mid-course unless you develop an allergic response or the doctor stops the antibiotics for you. Phibes’ analogy has other problems for sure, but the “beer” in Phibes’ analogy is incidental. The key point in Phibes’ analogy is stopping antibiotics 5 days into a 10 day course.
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This is great - first LD goes full-on Ax, then Ax pulls him up on it
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Well, to be fair, it is very important to understand that a patient who has been prescribed antibiotics is not to stop taking it on his own unless he develops allergic reaction and/or gets instructions from his physician to stop taking the antibiotics. This is important not only for the patient's own health, but also important in the fight to keep existing antibiotics viable longer.
It is important for the patient's own health because stopping antibiotics too early gives the bacteria a chance to grow again and make the patient sick again. It is important for the rest of the world because the bacteria that are not completely killed off by the antibiotics may mutate as they grow and many develop resistance to that antibiotics, thus making the antibiotic ineffective going forward. If the mutated, now resistant bacteria get passed on to another patient, that other patient would also no longer be able to use the same antibiotics to fight the bacteria. So this has consequences beyond the first patient who stopped taking antibiotics prematurely.
For those two reasons, it's worth the time to type that all that out and risk being ridiculed for being a pedant.
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I was going to make a comment about that 'whooshing noise high above you' being the point being missed, but I was worried somebody would note that points don't actually make a whooshing noise since they are merely representations of a concept, and I was concerned that in this time of heightened emotions I might then tell them to fuck off.
