If Remdesivir Really Fails...
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...There May Be No Treatment For Coronavirus
https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/04/24/why-failure-remderivir-deeply-disturbing-14743
But the strongest indicator of efficacy in humans was that it worked in monkey models, both prophylactically and therapeutically, something I wrote about in March. I have no explanation of why the monkey efficacy did not translate into human efficacy. None.
Here what troubles me most. I have just given you the profile of an experimental drug that should be an effective antiviral drug based on what we know about RNA and DNA polymerase inhibitors. Of course, it would have been nice if the drug was 100-times more potent in cell culture experiment. But keep in mind that this drug was "off the shelf" – not a molecule that had been fine-tuned for years for anti-SARS-2-CoV, yet it still looked good.
Why? I have no idea (I worked on HCV polymerase inhibitors for 5 years so I'm more than a little familiar with this topic). This tells me that it is probably going to be VERY hard to develop an antiviral drug for SARS-2-CoV. This is what troubles me the most. If remdesivir fails what in the world is going to succeed? The malaria drugs never had a chance from the get-go. The AIDS drugs were a stretch, but everything about remdesivir makes sense, except the outcome.
I suspect it will be a very long time (and I sure hope I'm wrong) before we see such a high-quality preclinical candidate and it could STILL meet the same fate unless someone comes up with an explanation of what went wrong. This is what will keep me awake tonight. The chances are (now) that we'll be waiting on a vaccine, which may or may not even be possible. If that draft we saw is indicative of the final data yesterday was a very bad day.
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And a fine morning to you too, George.
Only non-witches get due process.
- Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
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Convalescent plasma?
Hyperimmune globulin?
One thing that I find encouraging is we've never had so many scientists/companies etc working on one very specific condition. There are probably a lot of candidate molecules being studies hard right now.
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Convalescent plasma?
Hyperimmune globulin?
One thing that I find encouraging is we've never had so many scientists/companies etc working on one very specific condition. There are probably a lot of candidate molecules being studies hard right now.
@jon-nyc said in If Remdesivir Really Fails...:
Convalescent plasma?
I've read that the immunity it affords is short-term, though it might be helpful as a therapy.
One thing that I find encouraging is we've never had so many scientists/companies etc working on one very specific condition.
Indeed. It's amazing to see this.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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Is this an unintended "moon shot"?
And yes, this is very grim news.
I guess the new "normal" will not look much like the old "normal".
One of my best friends is heading out to golf with 3 people he doesn't even know later today.
I would golf solo, but none of the courses are permitting that. They are bundling people into foursomes. Pre-pay online only.
All the tee times are booked through mid-week. And all are full foursomes.
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I've played the last 5 days, Sunday is my day off.
Weekdays I've played alone or with 1 other guy. Yesterday was with the 20 man Saturday group.
Every round everyone is in a cart by himself or walking. Guys try to maintain 6+ feet. There are devices in the holes that stop the ball from going all the way in so it can be removed without touching anything, the pins remain in the hole. All the bunker rakes have been removed.
The clubhouse and restaurant are closed except for take-out. You can buy a beer and drink it outside, sitting at a table were, for the most part, 6+ feet is maintained.
For the first time yesterday I saw a guy wearing a mask. The parking lot was crowded yesterday.
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@jon-nyc said in If Remdesivir Really Fails...:
Convalescent plasma?
I've read that the immunity it affords is short-term, though it might be helpful as a therapy.
One thing that I find encouraging is we've never had so many scientists/companies etc working on one very specific condition.
Indeed. It's amazing to see this.
@George-K said in If Remdesivir Really Fails...:
@jon-nyc said in If Remdesivir Really Fails...:
One thing that I find encouraging is we've never had so many scientists/companies etc working on one very specific condition.
Indeed. It's amazing to see this.
Such a well defined problem which hasn't been extensively studied for years by the whole scientific community and with such a massive pot of glory for whomever cracks it, is a once in a lifetime opportunity.
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Also a great opportunity to throw caution to the wind and make a giant leap.
The opportunity reminds me of Apollo. It has driven the economy for 50 years since.
Apollo had a lot of screwball ideas in the beginning, there will be some here.
Cigarettes might even make a comeback.
From the Apollo era:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC444439/
@NIH said "
Abstract
A water-soluble nontumorigenic acidic fraction of tobacco smoke condensate of cigarettes has been found to have antiviral activity against encephalomyocarditis (EMC) virus infection in mice. -
Is this an unintended "moon shot"?
And yes, this is very grim news.
I guess the new "normal" will not look much like the old "normal".
One of my best friends is heading out to golf with 3 people he doesn't even know later today.
I would golf solo, but none of the courses are permitting that. They are bundling people into foursomes. Pre-pay online only.
All the tee times are booked through mid-week. And all are full foursomes.
@mark said in If Remdesivir Really Fails...:
Is this an unintended "moon shot"?
And yes, this is very grim news.
I guess the new "normal" will not look much like the old "normal".
One of my best friends is heading out to golf with 3 people he doesn't even know later today.
I would golf solo, but none of the courses are permitting that. They are bundling people into foursomes. Pre-pay online only.
All the tee times are booked through mid-week. And all are full foursomes.
Maybe Barry has a spot for you?
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@jon-nyc said in If Remdesivir Really Fails...:
And a fine morning to you too, George.
Another thing to cheer you up:
Chinese scientists say the novel coronavirus will not be eradicated, adding to a growing consensus around the world that the pathogen will likely return in waves like the flu.
It’s unlikely the new virus will disappear the way its close cousin SARS did 17 years ago, as it infects some people without causing obvious symptoms like fever. This group of so-called asymptomatic carriers makes it hard to fully contain transmission as they can spread the virus undetected, a group of Chinese viral and medical researchers told reporters in Beijing at a briefing Monday.
With SARS, those infected became seriously ill. Once they were quarantined from others, the virus stopped spreading. In contrast, China is still finding dozens of asymptomatic cases of the coronavirus every day despite bringing its epidemic under control.
“This is very likely to be an epidemic that co-exists with humans for a long time, becomes seasonal and is sustained within human bodies,” said Jin Qi, director of the Institute of Pathogen Biology at China’s top medial research institute, the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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@jon-nyc said in If Remdesivir Really Fails...:
And a fine morning to you too, George.
Another thing to cheer you up:
Chinese scientists say the novel coronavirus will not be eradicated, adding to a growing consensus around the world that the pathogen will likely return in waves like the flu.
It’s unlikely the new virus will disappear the way its close cousin SARS did 17 years ago, as it infects some people without causing obvious symptoms like fever. This group of so-called asymptomatic carriers makes it hard to fully contain transmission as they can spread the virus undetected, a group of Chinese viral and medical researchers told reporters in Beijing at a briefing Monday.
With SARS, those infected became seriously ill. Once they were quarantined from others, the virus stopped spreading. In contrast, China is still finding dozens of asymptomatic cases of the coronavirus every day despite bringing its epidemic under control.
“This is very likely to be an epidemic that co-exists with humans for a long time, becomes seasonal and is sustained within human bodies,” said Jin Qi, director of the Institute of Pathogen Biology at China’s top medial research institute, the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences.
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@George-K I wasn’t supposed to drink today. There goes that plan.
@LuFins-Dad said in If Remdesivir Really Fails...:
@George-K I wasn’t supposed to drink today. There goes that plan.
I should retitle this the "Debbie Downer" thread.
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@jon-nyc said in If Remdesivir Really Fails...:
And a fine morning to you too, George.
Another thing to cheer you up:
Chinese scientists say the novel coronavirus will not be eradicated, adding to a growing consensus around the world that the pathogen will likely return in waves like the flu.
It’s unlikely the new virus will disappear the way its close cousin SARS did 17 years ago, as it infects some people without causing obvious symptoms like fever. This group of so-called asymptomatic carriers makes it hard to fully contain transmission as they can spread the virus undetected, a group of Chinese viral and medical researchers told reporters in Beijing at a briefing Monday.
With SARS, those infected became seriously ill. Once they were quarantined from others, the virus stopped spreading. In contrast, China is still finding dozens of asymptomatic cases of the coronavirus every day despite bringing its epidemic under control.
“This is very likely to be an epidemic that co-exists with humans for a long time, becomes seasonal and is sustained within human bodies,” said Jin Qi, director of the Institute of Pathogen Biology at China’s top medial research institute, the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences.
@George-K wait a minute! I thought they were saying that seasonal temp changes don’t have an effect on this thing?
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A government-run study of Gilead’s remdesivir, perhaps the most closely watched experimental drug to treat the novel coronavirus, showed that the medicine is effective against Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus.
Gilead made the announcement in a statement Wednesday, stating: “We understand that the trial has met its primary endpoint.” The company said that the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which is conducting the study, will provide data at an upcoming briefing.
The finding — although difficult to fully characterize without any data for the study — would represent the first treatment shown to improve outcomes in patients infected with the virus that put the global economy in a standstill and killed at least 218,000 people worldwide.
Gilead's Futures:
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It is so surprising that the most expensive drug of all the possible treatments is the only option passing clinical trials.
Shocking!
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