The Battleground Thread

LuFins Dad

The numbers are the current figures by RCP...

Texas - Trump up 1.2% - I figure that means Trump wins by 4%.

Florida - Biden up 1.0% - I figure Trump by 2%

PA - Biden up 4.2% - This is make or break for Trump and if he wins, he has to take PA. If that happens, the Pennsylvania polling will be studied for years.

Ohio - Trump up by .2% - Weird again, Trump’s had a consistent but small lead (.6%) for several weeks. Quinnipiac had an outlier poll come in on the 27th of Biden +5. This tightened everything down... I think Trump takes it.

Georgia - Biden up by .4% - This looks weird, too. Trump has been trending up since mid October and Biden has been trending down. Trump took the lead on Oct 26th on a really big jump over two polls on the 27th and 28th (Trump went up slightly, too, just not as much), but Biden’s average is dropping like a rock again and Trump’s is rising fast having been the leader in the last 3 polls... Trump should take this.

Michigan - Biden up by 5.1% - Trump’s moved 3 points in the past week. Could be a shootout... I think Biden wins, but this could get tight. Pennsylvania and Michigan are my two most likely states to go to the courts.

NC - Trump by .6% - This isn’t as close as it looks. Trump wins by 3%...

Arizona - Biden +1% - Trump’s been trending up since September 10th, when he was down by 5.7% and Biden’s support has dropped by nearly 2% since October 22nd. This isn’t due to a Trafalgar or Rasmussen outlier, either. NY times/Sienna and Emerson both show a 2% drop for Biden. The trend is there for Trump.

Wisconsin - Biden +6.6% - I don’t think Trump catches this one...

Minnesooota - Biden +4.3% - Trump’s gained 3% over the last 2 weeks but Biden’s held steady at 48%. It’s close enough to be in question, plus it’s the same state that voted in Jesse Ventura, so who the F knows what they will do? I’ll call it safe for Biden.

Iowa - Trump +1.4% - Lot’s of movement towards Trump over this week...

George K · "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

If you're right, that really differs from the Rasmussen predictions in North Carolina and Arizona - 26 electoral votes.

If he takes PA, that's another 20. Total of 46 added to the 230 that Rasmussen is predicting.

LuFins Dad

@George-K I don’t get where Rasmussen is predicting NC for Biden. Their last poll has Trump +2... and that’s not outlier for them... Do they not trust their own polling?

LuFins Dad

@LuFins-Dad said in The Battleground Thread:

@George-K I don’t get where Rasmussen is predicting NC for Biden. Their last poll has Trump +2... and that’s not outlier for them...

Their last AZ poll has Trump +4, a bit of an outlier but one that corresponds with the trends by other pollsters...

Do they not trust their own polling?

LuFins Dad

And RCP just updated PA to Biden +2.9, a 1.3% drop since this morning. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html

brenda

@LuFins-Dad

LOL
Yes, your assessment of Minnesooooota is very appropriate, and you spelled it correctly, too.

Loki

@LuFins-Dad said in The Battleground Thread:

@LuFins-Dad said in The Battleground Thread:

@George-K I don’t get where Rasmussen is predicting NC for Biden. Their last poll has Trump +2... and that’s not outlier for them...

Their last AZ poll has Trump +4, a bit of an outlier but one that corresponds with the trends by other pollsters...

Do they not trust their own polling?

Rasmussen today is building a narrative around continued tightening in the last two weeks and just published a poll agh shows Biden up by 1 nationally vs. Hillary up by 3 the day before election. They are also showing the battlegrounds tightening and the daily tracking polling for approval at its peak approval for Trump.

It’s kind of eerie what is going on here, the trending so similar to last time. But it already is what it is we will just have to see what the people really wanted. It’s never been so easy to vote and we have never flooded the zone like this so we will have a good assessment of what America truly wants.

Loki

NBC/Marist final poll has Arizona as a tie. The poll of polls in PA has the smallest gap of the season and less than 2016.

People could be just getting spooked but the data tightening trend is not arguable and in election theory momentum means a lot.

I am not changing my prediction but I am observing.

MSM is not picking up on what’s happening so I could have it wrong.

Mik

Mik

George K · "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

If Teh Donald wins Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, Nate Silver's model says his chances are 50/50 (more or less):

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/

LuFins Dad

@George-K said in The Battleground Thread:

If Teh Donald wins Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, Nate Silver's model says his chances are 50/50 (more or less):

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/

If he wins PA, Silver says 61%.

LuFins Dad

@LuFins-Dad said in The Battleground Thread:

And RCP just updated PA to Biden +2.9, a 1.3% drop since this morning. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html

And now the average has dropped to 2.5%.

kluurs

Over the last few days, Trump's ground game has seemed much stronger than Biden's and actually, I thought Clinton and Co. did a better job last go round in the final week leading up to the election as compared to Biden. Also, when things were trending downward for Trump it seemed like there was a big hit every week on him from a different source. If anything the only hit worth noticing has been the Hunter Biden business - and given the memory of the American public - that's the last thing they heard. It will be an interesting week. The trend is also favorable to Trump as people who think he's behind but close - more likely to stand in line to vote. People who think Biden has it - stay home.

George K · "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

Someone commented, "If that's what they're saying publicly, what do you think they're saying privately?"

89th

I think everyone is trying to get on the record thinking another 2016 surprise might happen. I’d be surprised if Trump even gets 200 electoral votes.

Catseye3

A Biden win might boil down very simply to Democrat voters hating Biden less than than they hated Clinton. IOW, if they're not crazy about Biden, they'll find it easier to hold their noses for Biden than they did for Clinton.

Doctor Phibes

@George-K said in The Battleground Thread:

Someone commented, "If that's what they're saying publicly, what do you think they're saying privately?"

That depends on their reason for saying it publicly. They could be trying to make sure that Biden voters don't stay home because they think he's got it in the bag. On the other hand, they could be panicking.

Larry

@89th said in The Battleground Thread:

I think everyone is trying to get on the record thinking another 2016 surprise might happen. I’d be surprised if Trump even gets 200 electoral votes

You're not just going to be surprised, you might actually piss yourself.

Mik

Biden's campaign message this week has been 'battle for the soul of the nation'. It's even on his podium. Politicians talking about souls smells like desparation to me.

The New Coffee Room

The Battleground Thread