Understanding US election polls
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wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 16:18 last edited by
I noticed that different polls show very different predictions for the election. For instance, YouGov has Biden at +11, whereas Rasmussen has Trump at +1.
Are polls just as partisan as media these days?
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wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 16:35 last edited by
Both of those are outliers. Rasmussen is Trump’s favorite pollster, if that tells you anything.
Bit there is a range. Some are quite partisan.
Nate Silver of 538.com has metrics about the polling orgs’ typical error (e.g. lean D+0.7, or R+1) which he develops over many cycles.
He also grades them A-F, Yougov he rates a B and Rasmussen a C+.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
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wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 16:36 last edited by
I saw the Rasmussen poll the other day and was surprised it wasn’t posted here triumphantly.
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wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 16:54 last edited by
The other thing to consider is that if you tell a pollster that you intend to vote for Mr. Trump, BLM will probably come to your house and try to kill you.
There are many Trump voters unwilling to take this risk.
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wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 16:57 last edited by
Frightened little snowflakes, the lot of ‘em.
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wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 17:08 last edited by
Remind me again...What pollster had on 10/28/16, an almost 80% chance of Hillary winning in the election?
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wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 17:33 last edited by
Most people here seem to determine who's winning by asking their friends who they've voted for.
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wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 17:35 last edited by
Another poll question:
Why do the election polls show "popular vote" percentage points? They are irrelevant for the election. Shouldn't they predict electoral college numbers?
Related question: Trump could win if he gets X percent less than Biden. What is a realistic maximum X? (I read elsewhere recently that theoretically a candidate could win the election with just 25% of the votes).
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Remind me again...What pollster had on 10/28/16, an almost 80% chance of Hillary winning in the election?
wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 17:36 last edited by@Jolly said in Understanding US election polls:
Remind me again...What pollster had on 10/28/16, an almost 80% chance of Hillary winning in the election?
I'll answer my own question...
Nate Silver, 538.
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Another poll question:
Why do the election polls show "popular vote" percentage points? They are irrelevant for the election. Shouldn't they predict electoral college numbers?
Related question: Trump could win if he gets X percent less than Biden. What is a realistic maximum X? (I read elsewhere recently that theoretically a candidate could win the election with just 25% of the votes).
wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 17:39 last edited by@Klaus said in Understanding US election polls:
Another poll question:
Why do the election polls show "popular vote" percentage points? They are irrelevant for the election. Shouldn't they predict electoral college numbers?
Related question: Trump could win if he gets X percent less than Biden. What is a realistic maximum X? (I read elsewhere recently that theoretically a candidate could win the election with just 25% of the votes).
Very astute.
The popular vote polls for the entire country are meaningless. State polls are more meaningful, and then a lot depends on the sample size and the questions.
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Another poll question:
Why do the election polls show "popular vote" percentage points? They are irrelevant for the election. Shouldn't they predict electoral college numbers?
Related question: Trump could win if he gets X percent less than Biden. What is a realistic maximum X? (I read elsewhere recently that theoretically a candidate could win the election with just 25% of the votes).
wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 17:40 last edited by@Klaus said in Understanding US election polls:
Why do the election polls show "popular vote" percentage points?
To help create a narrative?
I'm sorry. Somebody put a "cynic" cap on my head today.
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wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 17:41 last edited by Klaus
Maybe it is simply because it is much easier/cheaper to do polls for popular vote. Much more data (i.e., money) would be needed for semi-accurate electoral college predictions, I guess.
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wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 18:52 last edited by
No question Trump bounced off his low from his first debate performance and Covid but he lost any opportunity to have a closing strategy.
The only hope left for Trump supporters is the silent voter who won’t admit it.
He definitely lost the female vote and some of the non college, doubtful he can make up for it with black, Latino and new registration of GOP voters.
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No question Trump bounced off his low from his first debate performance and Covid but he lost any opportunity to have a closing strategy.
The only hope left for Trump supporters is the silent voter who won’t admit it.
He definitely lost the female vote and some of the non college, doubtful he can make up for it with black, Latino and new registration of GOP voters.
wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 20:09 last edited by@Loki said in Understanding US election polls:
No question Trump bounced off his low from his first debate performance and Covid but he lost any opportunity to have a closing strategy.
The only hope left for Trump supporters is the silent voter who won’t admit it.
He definitely lost the female vote and some of the non college, doubtful he can make up for it with black, Latino and new registration of GOP voters.
Trump is trending, though.
A lot depends on those early votes and who shows up at the polls.
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@Klaus said in Understanding US election polls:
Why do the election polls show "popular vote" percentage points?
To help create a narrative?
I'm sorry. Somebody put a "cynic" cap on my head today.
wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 20:29 last edited by@George-K said in Understanding US election polls:
@Klaus said in Understanding US election polls:
Why do the election polls show "popular vote" percentage points?
To help create a narrative?
I'm sorry. Somebody put a "cynic" cap on my head today.
Yes, but I think that is true.
It sells the story that Mr. Biden is supposed to win, because of the popular vote.
Should he lose the electoral and win the popular the outrage has already been fueled.
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Another poll question:
Why do the election polls show "popular vote" percentage points? They are irrelevant for the election. Shouldn't they predict electoral college numbers?
Related question: Trump could win if he gets X percent less than Biden. What is a realistic maximum X? (I read elsewhere recently that theoretically a candidate could win the election with just 25% of the votes).
wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 20:42 last edited by jon-nyc@Klaus said in Understanding US election polls:
Related question: Trump could win if he gets X percent less than Biden. What is a realistic maximum X? (I read elsewhere recently that theoretically a candidate could win the election with just 25% of the votes).
Nate's take, as good as any you'll see.
As for the other question, both national polls and state level polls are done. Obviously national polls are cheaper to do and they're correlated with the overall outcome.
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wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 20:56 last edited by
Anecdotally speaking, I don’t now a single person that voted for Trump in 16 that won’t be voting for him this time. I know a very few that voted Clinton in 16 that won’t be voting Biden, and I know a fair number like myself that voted 3rd party or just abstained in 16 because they couldn’t stand either that are strongly considering or already have pulled the lever for Trump. Hell, Aqua’s considering it...
There have been record numbers of new voter registrations and while the Dems have gotten more numbers, it appears that Trump’s teams have won some of the important battleground states. I am not going to make any predictions at all except that I will be a little drunk on election night...
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wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 21:00 last edited by
The MSM is helping the democrat party push the "popular vote" narrative because they know they can't win nationally. They are fully aware that they are a regional party. They also know that of the rank and file Democrats who haven't left the party altogether, the vast majority of them have no principles and will swallow and perpetuate anything the party tells them to.
And the party, along with their propaganda arm the MSM, know that the high population in California and the New York region will give them the "popular vote". Neither the democrats nor the media give a rat's ass about the Constitution, your rights, or anything else that stands in their way. They can't convince you, so they want to for e you. After all, in their minds they are superior to you in every way and the only reason you disagree with them is because you're too dumb to know what's best for you.
The smartest thing Americans could do is to stop voting for ANY democrat at any level until there are no more democrats in political office. But that won't happen, because 1. Our education system has been corrupted and is turning out ignorant graduates and 2 the number of stupid people has been growing.
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wrote on 28 Oct 2020, 22:09 last edited by
No question Rasmussen was one of the very few that called Trump close to accurate in 2016. So the C+ rating requires some explanation.
In the last few weeks Rasmussen has shown a real deliberate uptrend with Trump on top now.
Weigh that against corrections by other polling outfits, the question of Rasmussen picking up a good sample this time and the fact that others who called Trump last time say Biden this time.
I already gave my prediction but Rasmussen gives the hopefuls something reasonable to hold on to.
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wrote on 29 Oct 2020, 00:19 last edited by
I predict that either President Trump will be reelected or Vice President Biden will win the president. 555
