Interesting visual from 538.com
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Trump people don't like to reveal their intentions.
Because they might get their heads bashed in
@Copper said in Interesting visual from 538.com:
Trump people don't like to reveal their intentions.
Because they might get their heads bashed in
To win however you need Trump people plus what are affectionally known as RHINOs. The latter group will have had to accept a lot in terms of their view of the Presidency in order to flip the same lever again. I don’t see it and place greater odds on a clear Biden win pretty close to election night.
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The thread was more about the visual display of quantitative information rather than the current state of polling.
The ribbon segments are proportional to electoral votes, and are placed in order of safe R to lean R to lean D to safe D. In the middle is the line to care about. Kind of cool.
As for the polling I think we’re all more cautious this year than 2016, but it’s hard to imagine the polling companies learned and changed nothing. 2018 polling was quite good.
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Trump people don't like to reveal their intentions.
Because they might get their heads bashed in
@Copper said in Interesting visual from 538.com:
Trump people don't like to reveal their intentions.
I agree with this. I think that the actual vote will be closer than the polls are saying right now.
Even so, I do think that VP Biden has the edge.
But, yes, it is a cool way to graph it.
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What's "NE3"?
I wonder why DC is the most liberal state (well, it's not a state - but what's the word for states + DC?). Is there a particular explanation for that?
@Klaus I think because Eashington DC just a city. And cities are usually democrat very strongly.
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It's funny - the idea that the City of Westminster would be the most staunchly Labour constituency in the UK is hilarious.
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Klaus, DC is the most heavily african American of any voting district. It’s heavy african American population dates back to the founding when 25% of the city were enslaved people. After the civil war many freedmen flocked there too. By 1900 it had the highest percentage of blacks of any city in the US.
As for Nebraska and Maine, unlike all the other states, they don’t vote all of their electoral votes for a single candidate. They give two votes to the popular vote winner statewide, and give each congressional district a single vote. (Note that that formula 2 senators + x congressmen is how the number of electoral votes per state are decided to begin with)
One of the NE regions, Omaha and suburbs, is in play for Biden. Obama won it at least once. In Maine, one is more rural and will go for Trump, while the coastal region will go Biden.
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Klaus, DC is the most heavily african American of any voting district. It’s heavy african American population dates back to the founding when 25% of the city were enslaved people. After the civil war many freedmen flocked there too. By 1900 it had the highest percentage of blacks of any city in the US.
As for Nebraska and Maine, unlike all the other states, they don’t vote all of their electoral votes for a single candidate. They give two votes to the popular vote winner statewide, and give each congressional district a single vote. (Note that that formula 2 senators + x congressmen is how the number of electoral votes per state are decided to begin with)
One of the NE regions, Omaha and suburbs, is in play for Biden. Obama won it at least once. In Maine, one is more rural and will go for Trump, while the coastal region will go Biden.
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NE1, NE2, and NE3 refer to the three "congressional districts" in the state of Nebraska.
Nebraska is a state that allows the "splitting" of electoral college votes, hence it's broken down into "districts" in the graphics @jon-nyc posted.
See https://www.270towin.com/content/split-electoral-votes-maine-and-nebraska/(Otherwise, "NE" as an acronym in the context of North American geography usually refers to the New England region.)
