The Strait of Hormuz

[jon-nyc]

Trump’s priority is calm markets at least until November. Iran knows that and has milked it for all it’s worth and will probably continue to do so.

[AndyD]

Ah, good point.

[Axtremus]

@jon-nyc said:

Trump’s priority is calm markets at least until November.

Ah, so be prepared to go back to the “Iran War” thread after November.

[jon-nyc]

I don’t know that he’ll ever go back to Mar-Apr style fighting. We were running out of expensive defensive weapons and were getting to the point that we couldn’t protect our allies in the region. That is to say, we were actually losing the war militarily given (important caveat) our distaste for casualties as well as economic disruption that results from destroying our gulf allies. I don’t think Trump will want to return to that.

There’s a reason Trump wants to up the defense budget by $500B.

[Axtremus]

@jon-nyc said:

There’s a reason Trump wants to up the defense budget by $500B.

Will there be “war bonds”?
May be a lot of room for grift genius financial engineering there.

[Mik]

I think there may be more going on than we are informed on. Like the various factions inside the country and who is really in charge. That would seem to me to be the best reason for the current restraint - don't hand it over to the hard liners but let the more moderate factions save face or some permutation thereof. I don't think it's American domestic politics.

[jon-nyc]

We’ll see how the shippers react. So far in this war they’ve not shown themselves to be willing to just trust what the US says regarding the status of the strait.

[Renauda]

@jon-nyc said:

Trump’s priority is calm markets at least until November. Iran knows that and has milked it for all it’s worth and will probably continue to do so.

️

[jon-nyc]

Oman delivers Iranian-Omani joint plan for transit fees to Washington.

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/artc-iran-and-oman-push-ahead-with-strait-of-hormuz-fees-despite-us-objections-report

[jon-nyc]