Sports Betting vs. Predicting Market

[jon-nyc]

Prediction markets are federally regulated so states can’t outlaw them. They are open to 18 year olds, most sports books require 21. Betting is common among young men so they get used to using prediction markets long before they’re eligible for sports book apps.

I don’t know if they’ve caught up to betting apps but they have innate advantages.

[89th]

Wow those are some big numbers.

I started a thread about prediction markets a few days ago. https://nodebb.the-new-coffee-room.club/topic/39163/prediction-markets

They are really taking off, and I think will be very commonplace soon since they democratize (or whatever the word would be) public sentiment. Almost like real-time polls everywhere for everything.

I dabbled with a sports betting app last year but found it too addicting so I deleted it. I don't think I net won anything.

After listening to a podcast I did download Kalshi and made a few bets (like $100 that Vance will be the nominee) and they do make sports betting much simpler. "Yes or no" about whether something will happen along with the % chance (based on what everyone is picking) to determine how much you win. For example, during the superbowl I had the seahawks in a few small bets that paid out early so at half time the score was I think 9-0 or 12-0 and it asked if I thought the "over" (total points) for the game would be 31.5 so I said yes and made like 4x on that money. So I'm sitting with a nice balance in Kalshi now but don't plan to use it unless there are current events where we (like here in TNCR) like to predict what will happen and I'll do that from time to time.

There is a bet that SpaceX will dock two rockets together in space before 2028 which I very much doubt but the markets say it's more likely yes than no, so maybe there's information there I'm not aware of.

It is very easy to insider game this thing right now btw... if you're at SpaceX for example and know of specific plans, you could make a lot of money betting on rocket timing predictions.

[jon-nyc]

Robin Hanson, an academic pioneer of prediction markets, considered the insider trading to be a feature not a bug. But from his perspective the point of the markets were to make accurate predictions, not to have a fair betting platform.

[bachophile]

Polymarket has $2,400,000 bet on will Jesus Christ return before 2027. Who has the insider trading on this one? Someone in the Vatican?

[jon-nyc]

Maybe it’s the guys who sell post-rapture pet care hedging their liabilities.

[xenon]

I sometimes have pretty libertarian views, but sports betting is insidious. I know a fair bit of 20/30 year old men through my extended family and their friends. I know it's been a devastating addiction for many of them. And that's just the ones I know about.

[89th]

Agreed. It’s obvious but if my kids can avoid drugs, alcohol abuse, and gambling, they’ll be set.

[jon-nyc]

Wow. Trump puts together a new CFTC advisory committee that includes traditional exchanges and depositories, brokers, crypto platforms, prediction markets, and even sports books. And one well connected VC firm. No IRL casinos, seems to be an oversight.

[LuFins Dad]

[taiwan_girl]

https://azmirror.com/briefs/in-unprecedented-move-arizona-files-criminal-charges-against-prediction-market-company-kalshi/

Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes filed criminal charges against the online prediction market company Kalshi, accusing it of operating an illegal gambling business in the state and flagrantly violating a state law barring wagering on elections.

“Kalshi may brand itself as a ‘prediction market,’ but what it’s actually doing is running an illegal gambling operation and taking bets on Arizona elections, both of which violate Arizona law,” Mayes said in a press release announcing the charges. “No company gets to decide for itself which laws to follow.”

Mayes’ case marks the first time a state has pursued criminal charges against the company. The 20-count criminal information filed in Maricopa County Superior Court claims Kalshi broke Arizona law prohibiting the operation of an unlicensed wagering business and similarly broke the law by allowing bets on Arizona elections. All of the alleged crimes are misdemeanors, and all are being leveled against the company, not its executives.