It’s not a tax, it’s a schmax. Totally different.

[jon-nyc]

Roberts: "Who pays the tariff?"

Sauer: <inserts pile of gibberish with no coherent basis in economics>

[jon-nyc]

Assuming Gorsuch follows his prior jurisprudence and these comments are indicative, we're looking at at least a 6-3 ruling against Trump with the 3 liberals + Barrett, Roberts, and Gorsuch going against Trump.

[Horace]

I expect this will be yet another case of reality interfering with histrionic narratives about the supreme court being in Trump's pocket.

[Doctor Phibes]

@Horace said in It’s not a tax, it’s a schmax. Totally different.:

I expect this will be yet another case of reality interfering with histrionic narratives about the supreme court being in Trump's pocket.

Based on Jon's prediction, only 3 of them are.

[jon-nyc]

To be clear that’s a quote. Not my prediction. Though I’ve seen enough of the transcript to comfortably bet that they’ll lose.

The administration seems to be expecting a loss also and has some plans to keep some tariffs just using different justifications. Or try to at least.

[Horace]

@Doctor-Phibes said in It’s not a tax, it’s a schmax. Totally different.:

@Horace said in It’s not a tax, it’s a schmax. Totally different.:

I expect this will be yet another case of reality interfering with histrionic narratives about the supreme court being in Trump's pocket.

Based on Jon's prediction, only 3 of them are.

That prediction is less about affinity for a political tribe, and more about affinity for certain legal principles. If it were based on purported tribalism, Gorsuch would replace Kavanaugh in the tribal set. Regardless of how you slice it, the notion that SCOTSU is in the pocket of Trump remains absurd.

[Mik]

A lot of what Trump has done is based on the "make me quit it" doctrine. He's bound lose a few, if not many.

The market seems to be encouraged.

[jon-nyc]

Ever the optimist.

[89th]

"You're hearing it from me: Even if he loses, we'll just say he won over and over like we've done before, we'll probably even have Stephen Miller do an Oval Office rant about it while his arms are crossed and using big words."

[Renauda]

Lutnick has to be the most coyote butt ugly cheerleader that has ever “Raa-Raa’d” and marched for the team ever.

[xenon]

I don’t understand how it’s acceptable to be this loose with policy that goes to the heart of American capitalism.

[jon-nyc]

“We can’t undo the dumb thing I did because it was dumber than you think.”

[Horace]

Assumes facts not in evidence. Don't think we'd have to pay anything back. It may even be ambiguous whether the current tariffs would have to be repealed.

[Doctor Phibes]

@Horace said in It’s not a tax, it’s a schmax. Totally different.:

Assumes facts not in evidence.

I believe those are now called 'alternative facts'. When Donald Trump says something, it becomes true simply because he said it.

It's a bit like the anthropic principle, except applied to bullshit. If we hear it, it becomes true.

[jon-nyc]

@Horace said in It’s not a tax, it’s a schmax. Totally different.:

Assumes facts not in evidence. Don't think we'd have to pay anything back. It may even be ambiguous whether the current tariffs would have to be repealed.

I read somewhere that we would have to pay them back, even if some of them could be reissued using a different (but also fragile) legal justification. We’ve only taken in about 200B in tariffs as of 9/30. I think when he talks trillions he’s thinking of the phantom non existent trillions that these countries have ‘promised’ to invest. Any tiny subset of that investment that actually materialized would not have to be paid back.

[Renauda]

@Horace said in It’s not a tax, it’s a schmax. Totally different.:

Assumes facts not in evidence. Don't think we'd have to pay anything back.

In past when the US has lost arbitration suits over countervailing tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber imports, the US government had to issue refunds to the affected importers. I believe, although not certain, the same occurred in 2019/20 over national security tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium into the US.

[89th]

Can we pause for a second and listen to what he said in that clip? Wish I had the transcript, what an odd rambling and nearly incoherent response.

[jon-nyc]

After his poor solicitor general went to great pains to tell the court that the tariffs aren’t for revenue, here’s Mr Message Discipline cutting his legs out from under him while the court is yet to decide.

Secondly, really cool that we have a budget surplus and they’ll be paying down the debt soon! Time to sell my gold and buy dollars.

And that’s on top of my $2,000 government payment which should be in the mail soon.

[89th]

I wonder does he actually press the shift key before capitalizing the first letter in random sentences? Seems like a lot of effort to make grammatical mistakes.

[jon-nyc]

This reminds me of when our last decrepit president would talk confidently about how he was leading in all the polls when literally everyone else knew better.