Flooding in Texas - 81 dead, ten little girls from a summer camp still missing…
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Aged well
Link to video@kluurs said in Flooding in Texas - 81 dead, ten little girls from a summer camp still missing…:
Aged well
Link to videoWhile this and @jon-nyc s posts are interesting and worth consideration, it’s also worth remembering that warnings were being sent to sheriffs, county/town commissioners, fire departments WELL in advance, the NWS had issued various level of alerts including that cellphone override system. I doubt that sirens would have been heeded any more than the other warnings.
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A siren just alerts you that something, God knows what, might be happening. There's no information to make a decision on. I remember in the 80's they installed these things. One was very close to my house and would go off at 3 AM if there was going to be a thunderstorm. Thanks for waking me from a sound sleep to tell me it's going to rain. I only want it to sound for Armageddon.
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@jon-nyc said in Flooding in Texas - 81 dead, ten little girls from a summer camp still missing…:
Those little girls and their camp counselors would have woken up to the sirens.
Those camp counselors were woken up by NWS alerts likely 3-4 times a summer. The failure to react this time, and not having a responsible party monitoring NWS alerts is criminal. Not having a siren system is questionable, but the lack of preparedness and responsibility on the part of the camp is simply mind boggling. Bitch all you want, but the camp has weathered and survivedmany of these flash floods over its 100 year history with no need of a siren. Small ones every year, and large ones every decade. The failure to react this time is simply gross negligence. They ignored alerts. I’m sure that after having those sirens go off a dozen times every summer they would probably ignore those as well.
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How common are false alarms with modern flood sirens
False alarms with modern flood sirens are relatively rare but not unheard of—typically less than 1–2% of activations in well-maintained systems. Their frequency depends on several factors:
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Estimated Frequency
• Well-managed systems (e.g. in the U.S., Germany, Japan):
• False alarms are estimated at 1 in 50 to 1 in 100 siren activations.
• Many systems haven’t had any false alarms in years due to improved automation, oversight, and redundancy.
• Older or poorly maintained systems:
• Rates may be higher, especially where sensor calibration or human procedures are inconsistent.
• Dam warning sirens (often the most robust):
• Have some of the lowest false alarm rates, as many require manual confirmation before sounding.⸻
️ What Makes Them Less Common NowModern systems reduce false positives through:
• Sensor fusion: Multiple data points (e.g. rainfall + stream gauges) must agree before triggering.
• Threshold tuning: Alert thresholds are based on years of hydrological modeling, reducing “overreaction” to minor fluctuations.
• Fail-safes: Systems include manual review or multi-step confirmations.
• Smart algorithms: Some systems use AI or predictive modeling to rule out spurious triggers.⸻
Why They Still Occasionally HappenEven advanced systems can produce false alarms due to:
• Sudden, localized sensor spikes (e.g. a heavy storm cell over one sensor)
• Equipment failure (e.g. power surges, wildlife damage)
• Miscommunication during drills
• Data latency causing the system to misread the progression of an event⸻
🧩 Real-World Perspective
• A 2020 study of European flood warning systems found that less than 5% of alerts were false positives, and most of those were localized and non-disruptive (i.e. people were cautious but not evacuated).
• In the U.S., FEMA and Army Corps of Engineers document very low false alarm rates for dam-related sirens—often near zero.⸻
Summary
• False alarms with modern flood sirens are uncommon.
• Where they do happen, it’s usually due to technical issues or human error, not fundamental flaws in design.
• Continuous upgrades, oversight, and public education help ensure the public doesn’t become “numb” to warnings.Would you like a comparison to false alarm rates in other systems (e.g., tornado sirens or tsunami alerts)?
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How in the name of hell does that address the responsibility of the camp to monitor NWS reports and respond accordingly? Complacency was the killer here, not MAGATRY, though it seems like you and a large number of people are obsessed with trying to pin this natural disaster to political causes. First it was cuts to the NWS, and the NWS failed to appropriately warn the public because MAGA. Turns out that was wrong, they were adequately warned. So now the argument is they should have had a second warning system yo say “Hey! We really mean it?”
I lived in a flood valley. Nothing as active as Flood Alley, but we had our share of minor floods. The alarms went off 3-4 times a year. Not false alarms, legitimate small flooding that impacted specific areas. You learn to ignore it.
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Sorry man I never jumped on the funding cut bandwagon and only blamed magatry when 89 posted the video of actual magats saying out loud that they didn’t want satan’s money for flood sirens.
And of course there were other ways disaster could have been avoided besides flood sirens.
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We really don't have a lot of details about the situation. I can imagine the idea of taking scores of young girls out in a blinding rain storm in the middle of the night doesn't sound like such a great idea - and we don't know what it would have taken to get them to higher ground. I did read that the head of the camp was in favor of a better warning system - but lacking that one would have thought of a plan B as LuFin has suggested.
