The Big Beautiful Bill needs its own thread.
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Yeah most of the debt increase comes from the TCJA extension and he’d vote for that standalone.
@jon-nyc said in The Big Beautiful Bill needs its own thread.:
Yeah most of the debt increase comes from the TCJA extension and he’d vote for that standalone.
Considering how poorly the CBO projected the 2017 TCJA, why should we trust their numbers this time?
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I’m changing my over/under on the Trump rebuke to tomorrow with a twist - 10% chance Trump comes out on his side.
@jon-nyc said in The Big Beautiful Bill needs its own thread.:
I’m changing my over/under on the Trump rebuke to tomorrow …
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I’ve helped Elon a lot,” Trump said.
How so?
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https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/22/senate-tax-bill-jct-score-00417131
Senate GOP slashes megabill's tax costs with new accounting method
The "new accounting method" basically do not account for extensions of the 2017 tax cuts as a "cost."
So instead of $3.8 Trillion, using the "new accounting method," the Senate GOP's version of the bill is now said to cost only $440 Billion.
They would still need to raise the debt ceiling by $5 Trillion (or suspend it altogether), but with this new accounting method they say the bill will cost only $440 Billion.
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Extending the Trump Tax Cuts from 2017 may or may not promote more growth than the CBO projects, but expiring the tax cuts kills any possibility for growth, and frankly renders the $5 fucking Trillion debt limit extension irrelevant.
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Extending the Trump Tax Cuts from 2017 may or may not promote more growth than the CBO projects, but expiring the tax cuts kills any possibility for growth, and frankly renders the $5 fucking Trillion debt limit extension irrelevant.
@LuFins-Dad said in The Big Beautiful Bill needs its own thread.:
Extending the Trump Tax Cuts from 2017 may or may not promote more growth than the CBO projects, but expiring the tax cuts kills any possibility for growth, and frankly renders the $5 fucking Trillion debt limit extension irrelevant.
It seems you have given up on the argument that says reducing the national deficit/debt can itself be pro growth.
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Several provisions in the Senate GOP’s version of President Donald Trump’s "big, beautiful bill" have run afoul of Senate rules and must be stripped if Republicans want to pass the package without the help of Democrats.
The bill is undergoing what’s called a "Byrd Bath," when the parliamentarian meticulously combs through each section of the mammoth bill to determine whether policies comport with the Senate’s Byrd Rule.
The point of the budget reconciliation process is to skirt the Senate filibuster and pass a massive, partisan legislative package. But if provisions are left in that fail the test, Senate Republicans will have to meet the typical 60-vote threshold. Provisions that don’t pass muster can still be appealed, however.
and
Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough scrutinized three chunks of the megabill from the Senate Banking, Environment and Public Works and Armed Services committees and found numerous policies that failed to meet the Byrd Rule’s requirements.
Among those was a provision that would have eliminated funding for a target of the GOP’s since its inception in 2008, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which would have effectively eliminated the agency. Doing so also would have slashed $6.4 billion in spending.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/several-provisions-fail-pass-muster-senate-rules-big-beautiful-bill
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I have no idea either way. But it seems pretty clear that whether China or the US ‘wins’ AI matters a lot, and electricity figures large in that.
We should be ‘all of the above’ x 100 rather than taxing modern “gay” energy while subsidizing 19th century “manly” energy.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
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As budget gimmicks go, I don’t think this has ever been topped.
Senate Republicans are simultaneously using current policy scoring to pretend $3.8 trillion in tax cuts are free - and using current law scoring to get away with having temporary tax cuts appear $1.5 trillion cheaper.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
