Negative GDP for Q1

[jon-nyc]

Consensus was 0.5, which took into account the predicted import surge.

Actual number was -0.3.

[jon-nyc]

Q2 estimate -0.2.

That would mark the official start of the Trump Recession(tm).

[Horace]

[89th]

I always said Trump was like a bully at recess(ion)!

[Horace]

U.S. GDP contracts in Q1, price index jumps

The advance estimate of U.S. real GDP indicated a 0.3% Q/Q decrease in Q1, on an annual rate, weaker than the +0.2% consensus and reversing from the 2.4% growth logged in Q4 2024, according to data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Wednesday.

The PCE price index increased 3.6% Q/Q, up from 2.4% in Q4. Excluding food and energy prices, the core PCE price index jumped 3.5% vs. 2.6% in the prior quarter.

The drop in real GDP in Q1 reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decline in government spending. Those were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports, the BEA said.

Wednesday's GDP report followed the March trade in goods report on Wednesday that showed the goods trade deficit swelled, as businesses and consumers stocked up on things as tariffs were expected to climb.

Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, pointed out that the Q/Q decline in real GDP was the result of the trade deficit, but real final sales to domestic private purchases, known as core GDP, rose 2.3% Q/Q. "The takeaway: the trade shock caused a large change in behavior that resulted in that large drag due to a larger trade deficit. However, the economy did NOT slide into recession in Q1’25," he wrote on X.

Markets weren't assuaged. Nasdaq futures slid 1.5%, S&P futures dipped 1.0%, and Dow futures slipped 0.6%. The US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) jumped 3 basis points to 4.21%.

[LuFins Dad]

Worst economy ever!

[taiwan_girl]

[Horace]

As daily dips go, this one does seem like an obvious buy.

[jon-nyc]

Today's Q1 GDP data:
+0.6% Spain
+0.4% Eurozone
+0.3% Italy
+0.2% Germany
+0.2% Austria
+0.1% France
+0.2% Mexico
-0.3% U.S

[Renauda]

Trump’s new theme song will be, I Fought the Market (and the Market Won).

[jon-nyc]

My fear is he’ll start ordering the numbers to be cooked like his heroes do.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in Negative GDP for Q1:

Today's Q1 GDP data:
+0.6% Spain
+0.4% Eurozone
+0.3% Italy
+0.2% Germany
+0.2% Austria
+0.1% France
+0.2% Mexico
-0.3% U.S

Just realized the European numbers aren’t annualized so multiply them by 4 for an approximate comparison.

[jon-nyc]

I wondered where this would be on FauxNews.

Scrolling and scrolling and scrolling I went down to headline #36:

Trump urges 'be patient' on the economy, predicts 'boom...like no other'

3rd paragraph had this:
Stocks fell on Wednesday morning after new data showed the economy contracted for the first time in three years.

[jon-nyc]

Headline 34 was:

Test yourself on equestrian events, flag facts and famous food

Headline 35 was

Walmart+ week is live: Here are 15 deals you can't miss

[89th]

Heard a good line on a podcast today... it was something like people can be afraid of Trump... CEOs, journalists, legal firms... but the bond market, and the stock market, are not afraid of telling the truth.

[Horace]

@Horace said in Negative GDP for Q1:

As daily dips go, this one does seem like an obvious buy.

[taiwan_girl]

@Horace Hopefully you bought low!!

[Horace]

@taiwan_girl said in Negative GDP for Q1:

@Horace Hopefully you bought low!!

I just hope all my followers did.

[89th]

That's cute you used the plural