1 in 50,000
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With my 2 year old I just played “guess which hand I’m hiding the toy” and I varied which hand I used randomly… she got it wrong 20 times in a row. Google tells me that’s a 0.002% chance of happening! After 10 incorrect guesses, I started to be interested how long it would last.
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What sort of feedback did you give after each guess?
Did you give the kids the sense of "wrong guess = bad"?