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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Wave two seems to have crested

Wave two seems to have crested

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  • jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nyc
    wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
    #1

    What happens next? The most 2020 thing would be a month of slow decline but to a higher plateau than May, followed by an even larger wave hitting in September/October.

    067FA675-5188-4EFC-8BF0-88E82CCBF99F.jpeg

    Only non-witches get due process.

    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
    1 Reply Last reply
    • George KG Offline
      George KG Offline
      George K
      wrote on last edited by
      #2

      Interesting that the number of new cases is almost triple the number that we saw in the first wave, the number of deaths (so far) is only about ⅓. Yeah, I know, two weeks, but it seems like we're getting a bit better treating the disease, at least in the acute phase.

      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

      LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
      • George KG George K

        Interesting that the number of new cases is almost triple the number that we saw in the first wave, the number of deaths (so far) is only about ⅓. Yeah, I know, two weeks, but it seems like we're getting a bit better treating the disease, at least in the acute phase.

        LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins Dad
        wrote on last edited by
        #3

        @George-K said in Wave two seems to have crested:

        Interesting that the number of new cases is almost triple the number that we saw in the first wave, the number of deaths (so far) is only about ⅓. Yeah, I know, two weeks, but it seems like we're getting a bit better treating the disease, at least in the acute phase.

        We’ve been saying “wait two weeks” for the last two months in regards to IFR and CFR. Sooner or later the lower death rate has to be acknowledged.

        The Brad

        jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
        • LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins Dad
          wrote on last edited by
          #4

          Treatment is one possible reason, but I think the biggest difference maker has been not putting confirmed COVID cases into frigging nursing homes.

          The Brad

          1 Reply Last reply
          • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

            @George-K said in Wave two seems to have crested:

            Interesting that the number of new cases is almost triple the number that we saw in the first wave, the number of deaths (so far) is only about ⅓. Yeah, I know, two weeks, but it seems like we're getting a bit better treating the disease, at least in the acute phase.

            We’ve been saying “wait two weeks” for the last two months in regards to IFR and CFR. Sooner or later the lower death rate has to be acknowledged.

            jon-nycJ Online
            jon-nycJ Online
            jon-nyc
            wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
            #5

            @LuFins-Dad said in Wave two seems to have crested:

            @George-K said in Wave two seems to have crested:

            Interesting that the number of new cases is almost triple the number that we saw in the first wave, the number of deaths (so far) is only about ⅓. Yeah, I know, two weeks, but it seems like we're getting a bit better treating the disease, at least in the acute phase.

            We’ve been saying “wait two weeks” for the last two months in regards to IFR and CFR. Sooner or later the lower death rate has to be acknowledged.

            No no no. When the death rate wasn't increasing with the case count we said wait 2-3 weeks. And lo and behold, it eventually started increasing.

            Nobody thought we hadn't learned anything since the first wave.

            Only non-witches get due process.

            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
            LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
            • 89th8 Offline
              89th8 Offline
              89th
              wrote on last edited by
              #6

              @jon-nyc per your first post, that is good to see. I share your “kidding but not kidding” thoughts about what the fall may hold. Insert seasonal flu false alarms...

              Really I think the masks and social distancing will generally keep the cases lower but not too low, and we’ll learn to live with it until it either naturally dies out or a vaccine starts making the rounds.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • KincaidK Offline
                KincaidK Offline
                Kincaid
                wrote on last edited by
                #7

                Seems to me the way the numbers are moving that there must be something to this "T-cell" immunity and that we are perhaps reaching herd immunity in places that were formerly hard hit. Where herd immunity is reached at a relatively low number like 40-60%.

                I heard Sweden the other day had 2 confirmed deaths. Total for that day.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                  @LuFins-Dad said in Wave two seems to have crested:

                  @George-K said in Wave two seems to have crested:

                  Interesting that the number of new cases is almost triple the number that we saw in the first wave, the number of deaths (so far) is only about ⅓. Yeah, I know, two weeks, but it seems like we're getting a bit better treating the disease, at least in the acute phase.

                  We’ve been saying “wait two weeks” for the last two months in regards to IFR and CFR. Sooner or later the lower death rate has to be acknowledged.

                  No no no. When the death rate wasn't increasing with the case count we said wait 2-3 weeks. And lo and behold, it eventually started increasing.

                  Nobody thought we hadn't learned anything since the first wave.

                  LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins Dad
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #8

                  @jon-nyc said in Wave two seems to have crested:

                  @LuFins-Dad said in Wave two seems to have crested:

                  @George-K said in Wave two seems to have crested:

                  Interesting that the number of new cases is almost triple the number that we saw in the first wave, the number of deaths (so far) is only about ⅓. Yeah, I know, two weeks, but it seems like we're getting a bit better treating the disease, at least in the acute phase.

                  We’ve been saying “wait two weeks” for the last two months in regards to IFR and CFR. Sooner or later the lower death rate has to be acknowledged.

                  No no no. When the death rate wasn't increasing with the case count we said wait 2-3 weeks. And lo and behold, it eventually started increasing.

                  Nobody thought we hadn't learned anything since the first wave.

                  No, the implications were give it another couple weeks and the death numbers would explode. I believe someone implied it will be as bad as or worse than NY. It isn’t. 500K cases, 8K deaths in Florida. 425K cases in NY, and 32K deaths in NY.

                  The Brad

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ Online
                    jon-nycJ Online
                    jon-nyc
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #9

                    Not on this board.

                    Only non-witches get due process.

                    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • jon-nycJ Online
                      jon-nycJ Online
                      jon-nyc
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #10

                      This is a thread where we discussed it.

                      https://nodebb.the-new-coffee-room.club/topic/2307/we-haven-t-beat-on-the-ihme-model-in-a-while?_=1596807020840

                      Only non-witches get due process.

                      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                      1 Reply Last reply
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