Will TikTok Survive?

[jon-nyc]

One interesting thing is the law bans updates and distribution of the app. It doesn’t ban your having it if you already do.

It’s kind of brilliant as it will reduce the immediate backlash as current users continue for now but the app withers and dies slowly.

There is speculation that the CCP will shut it down entirely on its own, in the US anyway, to maximize blowback so that Trump will figure out how to save the CCP’s control of the main source of news for Americans 30 and under and Ken.

[kluurs]

I think that our Meta, Google and other interested parties wanted to pressure Tik Tok to sell. The pressure would result in fire sale pricing, a desirable end. Many value Tik Tok at a multiple of the value of Twitter - so getting it a discount would be desireable.

As as a secondary concern, Tik Tok has been a bit more pro-Palestine (less under the influence of Mossad) than other social media - with videos of Israeli soldiers sharing things that aren't meant for wide viewing. With the pincers of AIPAC and big tech, Tik Tok will likely fall beneath the waves on the 20th. OTOH, Bytedance's saying they will shut the app down on the 19th, one will have a firestorm of invective directed at congress. There are hundreds of thousands of people whose income is either partially or fully derived from Tik Tok. There are people who are crippled whose sole outside income comes from views and/or sales on Tik Tok.

While AIPAC and big tech typically would be unbeatable, this is where Trump can make some friends. I expect him to undo the ban on day one. He might be the one politician more interested in the adulation of the 100 million plus - as opposed to the affection of AIPAC and big tech.

[jon-nyc]

Is that how the CCP is spinning it to you? Mossad vs the people?

By the way Trump can’t just undo it. It’s a law passed by both houses of congress. Maybe he could refuse to enforce it but that would be pretty risky for Apple and Google to play along. The eventual fine when we someday get a president less friendly to the CCP influencing our kids would be in the hundreds of billions of dollars. ($5,000 per user per download or upgrade).

[89th]

The purpose of TikTok isn’t unique and another app will come along in the next year or two and replace it. That’s my guess. It’s just infinite-scrolling with algorithms and live feeds.

[jon-nyc]

YouTube shorts is the same thing minus CCP control. Inane video after inane video.

[Doctor Phibes]

@jon-nyc said in Will Tik-Tok Survive?:

YouTube shorts is the same thing minus CCP control. Inane video after inane video.

She's not inane, she's my future wife!

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in Will Tik-Tok Survive?:

YouTube shorts is the same thing minus CCP control. Inane video after inane video.

So to be clear, YouTube shorts will still entertain and make you stupid, but you’d still realize the TikTok issue is one of national security, not the people vs the JOOS.

[jon-nyc]

By the way, the fact that China would close a business they could sell for many billions is a very clear indication that this is a psyop first and foremost and a business only secondarily.

[George K]

I spent the afternoon napping listening to a couple of lawyers discuss, in real time, the arguments before SCOTUS. These lawyers' opinion is that TikTok is dead as of Jan 19.

Link to video

The TikTok discussion starts at 2:21

[jon-nyc]

Yeah the idea that this implicates the first amendment seems really really weak. Chinese psyops don’t really have free speech rights in the US.

[George K]

@jon-nyc said in Will Tik-Tok Survive?:

Yeah the idea that this implicates the first amendment seems really really weak. Chinese psyops don’t really have free speech rights in the US.

They went round and round with hypotheticals, like "If Jeff Bezos were owned (or blackmailed) by the Chinese, it that an infringement of free speech?"

Bottom line - if you're not in the country, or a US citizen (the implication being that non-citizens have a right) the 1st Amendment is irrelevant.

The fact that TIkTok won't be divested from Bytedance tells you a lot.

They predict it'll go dark on the 19th.

ETA: There was some speculation since the law has already passed, that Trump could choose to not enforce the law.

POTUS not enforcing laws.

[jon-nyc]

I talked about that earlier. If you’re the general counsel of Apple or Google you’re not going to recommend that.

What if someday we get a president who is against CCP psyops targeting virtually every American under 30? Seems strange I know, but it could happen.

[Jolly]

It's all psyops and algorithms if you have a cellphone or go online.

You think Elon Musk makes money selling Tesla vehicles? Silly boy, that's not what Tesla is for...

[jon-nyc]

Personally I’d make a distinction between Elon trying to make money and the CCP trying to destabilize our country and collect material to blackmail future leaders.

But I’m funny that like.

[Jolly]

The future is going to be different. Unless something changes, in the next couple of decades we are going to have a group of leaders who cut their teeth on YouTube, Facebook, Instagram and Tik-Tok. I think by that time, we'll be thoroughly immunized to potential blackmail arising from videos...Even most porn videos.

Can the CCP destabilize the country though algorithms? Maybe. It's a good point.

Can the CCP sweep in a lot of everyday intelligence on the average American? Sure. We're a very open society. So far, I'm more worried about them stealing top secret files, stealing government funded research and industrial espionage.

[kluurs]

If anyone is going to destabilize our social media, we want it to be the people who spend the most on lobbying in the US. They have our their interests at heart.

[jon-nyc]

So maybe we should have let the Soviet Union set up a television network throughout the United States in the 50s. Walter Cronkite, Joe Stalin - they were both self interested. What’s the difference?

[Jolly]

People actually believed Uncle Walter.

[jon-nyc]

The CCP seems to have a lot of converts too. Even highly intelligent lawyers have been known to succumb to the algorithm.

[Jolly]

Tariffs. It's the only answer.