Polling misses by state
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I think as a whole it’s going to be underpolling Trump 4.5-5%
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@jon-nyc mentioned the poll showing Harris winning the Puerto Rican county in PA? Trump won by 20.
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OTOH, it seemed like the exit polling was fairly accurate.
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@Jolly said in Polling misses by state:
OTOH, it seemed like the exit polling was fairly accurate.
Not Fox’s
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I listened to an interview with Selzer yesterday and she was adamant and giddy that it was meaningful.
@Horace said in Polling misses by state:
I listened to an interview with Selzer yesterday and she was adamant and giddy that it was meaningful.
Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities.
Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite. I am proud of the work I’ve done for the Register, for the Detroit Free Press, for the Indianapolis Star, for Bloomberg News and for other public and private organizations interested in elections. They were great clients and were happy with my work.
More:An update from the editor: What a review of the pre-election Iowa Poll has found
There were shocking polls for each, to be sure. In the end, my findings looked good. Over 30 years of polling led to an A+ rating in Nate Silver’s analysis of pollsters’ track records of accuracy. I earned that rating in Silver’s first list, and my grade never dropped. Maybe that history of accuracy made the outlier position too comfortable.
Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I’m humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings.
My work will continue for current clients and for clients yet to come. In addition, I’m thinking about how to put other talents to work for the benefit of new clients.
