Polling misses by state

[LuFins Dad]

First significant one was Florida. Trump and Scott by +12.

[Horace]

The recent Iowa poll from Selzer which showed Harris in the lead. IA just called for Trump.

[Jolly]

Iowa was an embarrassment...

[Horace]

I listened to an interview with Selzer yesterday and she was adamant and giddy that it was meaningful.

[LuFins Dad]

I think as a whole it’s going to be underpolling Trump 4.5-5%

[Horace]

I've never been polled, but I would be very inclined to lie, if I ever was.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc mentioned the poll showing Harris winning the Puerto Rican county in PA? Trump won by 20.

[Horace]

The culture has gone meta on polling. And with high status lefties stuck in their perpetual bubbles, they are absolutely blind to reality, with no way to see it.

[Jolly]

OTOH, it seemed like the exit polling was fairly accurate.

[LuFins Dad]

@Jolly said in Polling misses by state:

OTOH, it seemed like the exit polling was fairly accurate.

Not Fox’s

[George K]

@Horace said in Polling misses by state:

I listened to an interview with Selzer yesterday and she was adamant and giddy that it was meaningful.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2024/11/17/ann-selzer-conducts-iowa-poll-ending-election-polling-moving-to-other-opportunities/76334909007/

Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities.

Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite. I am proud of the work I’ve done for the Register, for the Detroit Free Press, for the Indianapolis Star, for Bloomberg News and for other public and private organizations interested in elections. They were great clients and were happy with my work.

More:An update from the editor: What a review of the pre-election Iowa Poll has found

There were shocking polls for each, to be sure. In the end, my findings looked good. Over 30 years of polling led to an A+ rating in Nate Silver’s analysis of pollsters’ track records of accuracy. I earned that rating in Silver’s first list, and my grade never dropped. Maybe that history of accuracy made the outlier position too comfortable.

Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I’m humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings.

My work will continue for current clients and for clients yet to come. In addition, I’m thinking about how to put other talents to work for the benefit of new clients.

[Jolly]

Well spoken, Curly Bill.