We should get our betting pools going…
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- Since it depends on PA, and PA has absurd laws that prevent vote counting until Election Day, we won’t know for several days.
Here’s one thing we do know - since it is the largest (ie most democratic) districts that take the longest to count, Trump will be ahead on Tuesday night and Harris will catch up over subsequent days. This is 100% knowable in advance, right up there with death and taxes in its certainty.
But that won’t stop magats from getting all maggety about it. In fact it’s part of their strategy.
@jon-nyc said in We should get our betting pools going…:
- Since it depends on PA, and PA has absurd laws that prevent vote counting until Election Day, we won’t know for several days.
Here’s one thing we do know - since it is the largest (ie most democratic) districts that take the longest to count, Trump will be ahead on Tuesday night and Harris will catch up over subsequent days. This is 100% knowable in advance, right up there with death and taxes in its certainty.
But that won’t stop magats from getting all maggety about it. In fact it’s part of their strategy.
In all fairness, Republicans have put a VERY strong effort into early voting this year, including mail in and early in-person. As those votes get voted last, it’s going to be far more confusing. It looks like 24 early votes are going to surpass half of the total votes cast in 2020, and we don’t really know what that means. Did Republicans simply cannibalize their normal Election Day turnout? Did early voting help get out some more of the low propensity voters that normally break for Trump? We simply don’t know.
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Fair point but there’s still a relationship between density, partisanship, and the amount of time it takes to finish counting so the pattern will hold all the same. It’s still going to take longer to count Philadelphia than it will Cameron County, even if the latter has lots more mail in ballots.
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Fair point but there’s still a relationship between density, partisanship, and the amount of time it takes to finish counting so the pattern will hold all the same. It’s still going to take longer to count Philadelphia than it will Cameron County, even if the latter has lots more mail in ballots.
@jon-nyc said in We should get our betting pools going…:
Fair point but there’s still a relationship between density, partisanship, and the amount of time it takes to finish counting so the pattern will hold all the same. It’s still going to take longer to count Philadelphia than it will Cameron County, even if the latter has lots more mail in ballots.
Correct, but even Philadelphia doesn’t break 100% to Harris. It was 80-20. In 2020 a lot of Trump’s supporters in Philly were Election Day voters. This year we can expect three changes: 1) Trump is performing better with blacks and Hispanics, so we can count on Kamala’s numbers to be lower but we can’t tell how low. 2) We can tell that there will be a greater number lower propensity voters that will have taken advantage of the early voting now that Trump has endorsed it that didn’t vote in 2020, but we don’t know the numbers. We don’t know how many of Trump’s base 20% of Philadelphia voters from 2020 voted early this year.
Kamala will still be getting the vast majority of late night vote counts… But it shouldn’t be 95% - 5% like it was in 2020. Is it 80-20? I doubt that as well, but projecting based on mail in and early votes that haven’t been tallied yet will be difficult.
But well before Pennsylvania is official, we should be able to have a firm grasp of which way the polling errors went. States that are far more efficient at vote tabulation will be giving us a fair estimate of what to expect. If Harris outperforms in Michigan and Ohio, it’s fair to assume she will in PA as well. Ditto Trump if he outperforms. And if he outperforms in Michigan, the whole point might be moot anyway.
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https://www.wtae.com/article/final-preparations-allegheny-county-election-day-1730740349/62805081
Allegheny County will have counted their results Tuesday night. If Kamala is below 60%, it’s gonna be a very hard uphill climb for her.
The Brad
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Election Day. I’m willing to make a prediction. I know all the polls are even. My gut tells me Harris.
But my gut is certainly no prophet. Just a sewage tube full of gram negative bacteria.
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Okay, I’ll go Trump wins convincingly enough that we know before 2AM. I think there will be at least 1 surprise state going for him, such as NH or maybe even Virginia. I think the total electorate is lower than 2020, and I’ll take the over on the Senate at 51.5.
The Brad
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I don't have a clue about President.
GOP keeps the Senate and the House. 52/48 and 224/211.
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https://www.wtae.com/article/final-preparations-allegheny-county-election-day-1730740349/62805081
Allegheny County will have counted their results Tuesday night. If Kamala is below 60%, it’s gonna be a very hard uphill climb for her.
@LuFins-Dad said in We should get our betting pools going…:
https://www.wtae.com/article/final-preparations-allegheny-county-election-day-1730740349/62805081
Allegheny County will have counted their results Tuesday night. If Kamala is below 60%, it’s gonna be a very hard uphill climb for her.
She’s at 59 and it’s dropping.
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Damn, I wish somebody would have taken me up on some of these bets!
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If anybody thinks Harris still has a shot, they can get great odds in the betting markets. Bets are still open as far as I know.
@Horace said in We should get our betting pools going…:
If anybody thinks Harris still has a shot, they can get great odds in the betting markets. Bets are still open as far as I know.
I’m still confused, isn’t betting on elections in the US by US citizens illegal?
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Okay, I’ll go Trump wins convincingly enough that we know before 2AM. I think there will be at least 1 surprise state going for him, such as NH or maybe even Virginia. I think the total electorate is lower than 2020, and I’ll take the over on the Senate at 51.5.
@LuFins-Dad said in We should get our betting pools going…:
Okay, I’ll go Trump wins convincingly enough that we know before 2AM. I think there will be at least 1 surprise state going for him, such as NH or maybe even Virginia. I think the total electorate is lower than 2020, and I’ll take the over on the Senate at 51.5.
Damn, Virginia almost gave me the surprise. As far as the rest, maybe I should go into political consulting…
