We should get our betting pools going…

[LuFins Dad]

1. When do you think we will have a Media Declared Winner? By day…

2. Will Trump win all of the sunbelt?

3. Will Kamala win all of the blue wall?

4. over/under Republican Senate Seats 51.5

5. total turnout greater or less than 2020

6. control of the house?

7. Florida constitutional amendments re: abortion, weed. Yea or Nea?

8. will the loser concede within 24 hours of the media declaring the winner?

Any other bets you can think of?

[Copper]

Will the winner still be president 4 years from now?

[LuFins Dad]

@Copper said in We should get our betting pools going…:

Will the winner still be president 4 years from now?

Apparently, Vance will be President at age 39, and still be President 30 years later. And Elon will be some soulless AI borg or something.

[jon-nyc]

1. Since it depends on PA, and PA has absurd laws that prevent vote counting until Election Day, we won’t know for several days.

Here’s one thing we do know - since it is the largest (ie most democratic) districts that take the longest to count, Trump will be ahead on Tuesday night and Harris will catch up over subsequent days. This is 100% knowable in advance, right up there with death and taxes in its certainty.

But that won’t stop magats from getting all maggety about it. In fact it’s part of their strategy.

[jon-nyc]

8. This question seems to be a roundabout way of asking who is going to win the presidential election. Everyone here knows Trump won’t ever concede a loss. I personally think Harris would within 24 hours.

[Copper]

Which side has the most molotov cocktails?

I assume the riot is outsourced. I wonder if the DNC & RNC would use the same guys.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in We should get our betting pools going…:

1. Since it depends on PA, and PA has absurd laws that prevent vote counting until Election Day, we won’t know for several days.

Here’s one thing we do know - since it is the largest (ie most democratic) districts that take the longest to count, Trump will be ahead on Tuesday night and Harris will catch up over subsequent days. This is 100% knowable in advance, right up there with death and taxes in its certainty.

But that won’t stop magats from getting all maggety about it. In fact it’s part of their strategy.

In all fairness, Republicans have put a VERY strong effort into early voting this year, including mail in and early in-person. As those votes get voted last, it’s going to be far more confusing. It looks like 24 early votes are going to surpass half of the total votes cast in 2020, and we don’t really know what that means. Did Republicans simply cannibalize their normal Election Day turnout? Did early voting help get out some more of the low propensity voters that normally break for Trump? We simply don’t know.

[jon-nyc]

Fair point but there’s still a relationship between density, partisanship, and the amount of time it takes to finish counting so the pattern will hold all the same. It’s still going to take longer to count Philadelphia than it will Cameron County, even if the latter has lots more mail in ballots.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in We should get our betting pools going…:

Fair point but there’s still a relationship between density, partisanship, and the amount of time it takes to finish counting so the pattern will hold all the same. It’s still going to take longer to count Philadelphia than it will Cameron County, even if the latter has lots more mail in ballots.

Correct, but even Philadelphia doesn’t break 100% to Harris. It was 80-20. In 2020 a lot of Trump’s supporters in Philly were Election Day voters. This year we can expect three changes: 1) Trump is performing better with blacks and Hispanics, so we can count on Kamala’s numbers to be lower but we can’t tell how low. 2) We can tell that there will be a greater number lower propensity voters that will have taken advantage of the early voting now that Trump has endorsed it that didn’t vote in 2020, but we don’t know the numbers. We don’t know how many of Trump’s base 20% of Philadelphia voters from 2020 voted early this year.

Kamala will still be getting the vast majority of late night vote counts… But it shouldn’t be 95% - 5% like it was in 2020. Is it 80-20? I doubt that as well, but projecting based on mail in and early votes that haven’t been tallied yet will be difficult.

But well before Pennsylvania is official, we should be able to have a firm grasp of which way the polling errors went. States that are far more efficient at vote tabulation will be giving us a fair estimate of what to expect. If Harris outperforms in Michigan and Ohio, it’s fair to assume she will in PA as well. Ditto Trump if he outperforms. And if he outperforms in Michigan, the whole point might be moot anyway.

[LuFins Dad]

https://www.wtae.com/article/final-preparations-allegheny-county-election-day-1730740349/62805081

Allegheny County will have counted their results Tuesday night. If Kamala is below 60%, it’s gonna be a very hard uphill climb for her.

[bachophile]

Election Day. I’m willing to make a prediction. I know all the polls are even. My gut tells me Harris.

But my gut is certainly no prophet. Just a sewage tube full of gram negative bacteria.

[LuFins Dad]

Okay, I’ll go Trump wins convincingly enough that we know before 2AM. I think there will be at least 1 surprise state going for him, such as NH or maybe even Virginia. I think the total electorate is lower than 2020, and I’ll take the over on the Senate at 51.5.

[Horace]

I've had a feeling Harris will win, but I'm sure it's not based on anything substantial.

[Copper]

@Horace said in We should get our betting pools going…:

I've had a feeling Harris will win

I had that feeling about Hillary.

And when she didn't it was wonderful.

Very, very wonderful

That's when I committed to Mr. Trump, he earned it.

[Jolly]

I don't have a clue about President.

GOP keeps the Senate and the House. 52/48 and 224/211.

[George K]

@Jolly said in We should get our betting pools going…:

I don't have a clue about President.

GOP keeps the Senate and the House. 52/48 and 224/211.

Does Harris get a pen and a phone?

[LuFins Dad]

@LuFins-Dad said in We should get our betting pools going…:

https://www.wtae.com/article/final-preparations-allegheny-county-election-day-1730740349/62805081

Allegheny County will have counted their results Tuesday night. If Kamala is below 60%, it’s gonna be a very hard uphill climb for her.

She’s at 59 and it’s dropping.

[LuFins Dad]

Damn, I wish somebody would have taken me up on some of these bets!

[Horace]

If anybody thinks Harris still has a shot, they can get great odds in the betting markets. Bets are still open as far as I know.

[LuFins Dad]

@Horace said in We should get our betting pools going…:

If anybody thinks Harris still has a shot, they can get great odds in the betting markets. Bets are still open as far as I know.

I’m still confused, isn’t betting on elections in the US by US citizens illegal?