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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Superforecasters

Superforecasters

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved General Discussion
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  • J Offline
    J Offline
    jon-nyc
    wrote on 17 Sept 2024, 19:46 last edited by jon-nyc
    #1

    I mean that’s some crystal ball shit right there.

    Thank you for your attention to this matter.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • G Offline
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      George K
      wrote on 17 Sept 2024, 23:37 last edited by
      #2

      The other day, Hillary called for civil and criminal penalties for spreading misinformation.

      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • J Offline
        J Offline
        jon-nyc
        wrote on 17 Sept 2024, 23:55 last edited by jon-nyc
        #3

        Maybe he meant to say ‘If Hilary gets crowned absolute sovereign….’ rather than ‘If Harris/Walz get elected…’

        Common mistake. I can see how Elon would miss that.

        Thank you for your attention to this matter.

        H 1 Reply Last reply 18 Sept 2024, 00:23
        • J jon-nyc
          17 Sept 2024, 23:55

          Maybe he meant to say ‘If Hilary gets crowned absolute sovereign….’ rather than ‘If Harris/Walz get elected…’

          Common mistake. I can see how Elon would miss that.

          H Offline
          H Offline
          Horace
          wrote on 18 Sept 2024, 00:23 last edited by
          #4

          @jon-nyc said in Superforecasters:

          Maybe he meant to say ‘If Hilary gets crowned absolute sovereign….’ rather than ‘If Harris/Walz get elected…’

          Common mistake. I can see how Elon would miss that.

          Harris would never answer a direct question about whether she would be for or against such legislation. We're left to our own guesses and predictions about her stance on that any many other issues. So Elon made a guess.

          Education is extremely important.

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          • T Offline
            T Offline
            taiwan_girl
            wrote on 18 Sept 2024, 00:46 last edited by
            #5

            Presidents cant make laws, so it is always kind of funny to hear president campaigners say, "If elected, I will do this........."

            G 1 Reply Last reply 18 Sept 2024, 00:59
            • J Offline
              J Offline
              jon-nyc
              wrote on 18 Sept 2024, 00:51 last edited by
              #6

              Elon had to learn about scotus to become a citizen, didn’t he?

              Thank you for your attention to this matter.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • T taiwan_girl
                18 Sept 2024, 00:46

                Presidents cant make laws, so it is always kind of funny to hear president campaigners say, "If elected, I will do this........."

                G Offline
                G Offline
                George K
                wrote on 18 Sept 2024, 00:59 last edited by
                #7

                @taiwan_girl said in Superforecasters:

                Presidents cant make laws

                Tell that to Trump, Biden, Clinton, Obama....

                "Pen and a phone," after all.

                Congress needs to grow a spine.

                "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • J Offline
                  J Offline
                  jon-nyc
                  wrote on 18 Sept 2024, 14:19 last edited by
                  #8

                  Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                  L T 2 Replies Last reply 18 Sept 2024, 14:34
                  • J jon-nyc
                    18 Sept 2024, 14:19

                    L Offline
                    L Offline
                    LuFins Dad
                    wrote on 18 Sept 2024, 14:34 last edited by
                    #9

                    @jon-nyc said in Superforecasters:

                    1. As you noted yourself, the unrealized capital gains tax will never fly.

                    2. Kamala is on the record as proposing a mandatory gun buyback on those ill defined assault rifles, proposing censorship on “misinformation (quite a lot of which has proven to be accurate)

                    3. and has already been part of an administration that has increased and created several government agencies (not that I have any hope Trump will be any better)

                    The Brad

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                    • H Offline
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                      Horace
                      wrote on 18 Sept 2024, 14:34 last edited by
                      #10

                      I wonder what Matt's theory of mind is for Musk, given all these glitches in his matrix. Russian operative? Indoctrinated Magat? Purely self-interested in lower taxes and busting unions?

                      Education is extremely important.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • J Offline
                        J Offline
                        jon-nyc
                        wrote on 18 Sept 2024, 15:22 last edited by
                        #11

                        Wow even Paul Graham.

                        Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • H Offline
                          H Offline
                          Horace
                          wrote on 18 Sept 2024, 16:02 last edited by
                          #12

                          Or the opposite side, "If Kamala is going to fix everything, why doesn't she do it now?". I believe that was a talking point from Trump in the debate. Glad to see the rhetoric resonates.

                          Education is extremely important.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • J jon-nyc
                            18 Sept 2024, 14:19

                            T Offline
                            T Offline
                            taiwan_girl
                            wrote on 18 Sept 2024, 17:28 last edited by
                            #13

                            @jon-nyc said in Superforecasters:

                            IMG_1869.jpg

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • H Offline
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                              Horace
                              wrote on 18 Sept 2024, 17:32 last edited by
                              #14

                              By some of Jon's logic in other contexts (see his opinion about whether Trump contributes to wokeness), one might conclude that one should vote for pro-gun candidates if one wants to control gun ownership. I mean, one could conclude that, if one was an uncareful thinker with a motivated conclusion.

                              Education is extremely important.

                              C 1 Reply Last reply 18 Sept 2024, 18:33
                              • H Horace
                                18 Sept 2024, 17:32

                                By some of Jon's logic in other contexts (see his opinion about whether Trump contributes to wokeness), one might conclude that one should vote for pro-gun candidates if one wants to control gun ownership. I mean, one could conclude that, if one was an uncareful thinker with a motivated conclusion.

                                C Offline
                                C Offline
                                Copper
                                wrote on 18 Sept 2024, 18:33 last edited by
                                #15

                                @Horace said in Superforecasters:

                                one should vote for pro-gun candidates if one wants to control gun ownership

                                Since guns are not allowed on commercial flights, you have to keep an extra gun in every city you visit.

                                If you could take the gun on the flight you wouldn't need all those extras. And total gun ownership would come way down.

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                                17 Sept 2024, 23:55

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