It’s starting

[LuFins Dad]

Silver’s pissing a lot of people off…

[Jolly]

That surprises me.

[bachophile]

Another silver polll, just sayin….

[LuFins Dad]

@bachophile said in It’s starting:

Another silver polll, just sayin….

Not a poll, a model based on all the polls and statistical data. And that model and statistician was the only one that gave Trump anything over 5%, Silver was the lone voice that started going on TV and warning that the pundits were wrong, and that Trump was starting to gain momentum and posed a significant chance of winning. He got laughed at and insulted by The NY Times and WaPo.

That model you point to doesn’t diminish my point or confidence, but actually reinforces it.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2017/03/nate-silver-says-conventional-wisdom-not-data-killed-2016-election-forecasts/

[LuFins Dad]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/09/27/your-critique-that-fivethirtyeight-misfired-on-the-2016-race-is-wrong/

[Doctor Phibes]

I think the heavy interest with opinion polls is quite interesting psychologically. What does it matter who is "winning" in a two-party system where there is no real justification for tactical voting? Do people really change their preferred candidate based on the fact that they don't want to be on the losing team?

[LuFins Dad]

@Doctor-Phibes said in It’s starting:

I think the heavy interest with opinion polls is quite interesting psychologically. What does it matter who is "winning" in a two-party system where there is no real justification for tactical voting? Do people really change their preferred candidate based on the fact that they don't want to be on the losing team?

No, but they change their donation intentions… If it’s a close race, donors might go a little higher. If it’s trending downwards, they might either substantially increase or substantially decrease their donations.

[LuFins Dad]

Plus, I live with the belief that people are idiots. Individuals can be quite intelligent, but put them in groups and they immediately become less intelligent. The bigger the group, the dumber they get.

[Doctor Phibes]

@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

Plus, I live with the belief that people are idiots. Individuals can be quite intelligent, but put them in groups and they immediately become less intelligent. The bigger the group, the dumber they get.

That would certainly explain the quality of the two candidates.

[LuFins Dad]

@Doctor-Phibes said in It’s starting:

@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

Plus, I live with the belief that people are idiots. Individuals can be quite intelligent, but put them in groups and they immediately become less intelligent. The bigger the group, the dumber they get.

That would certainly explain the quality of the two candidates.

For many, many elections….

I’m probably a believer in anti-democracy. The more people support a policy, the worse it probably is…

[Horace]

@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

Plus, I live with the belief that people are idiots. Individuals can be quite intelligent, but put them in groups and they immediately become less intelligent. The bigger the group, the dumber they get.

That's because fitting in socially is an existential priority for humans. And we're not wired to be aware of that motivation to our beliefs.

[LuFins Dad]

[George K]

"voters are unsure they know enough about where Kamala Harris stands"

Yeah, how about that.

[Copper]

Has cnn published the debate highlights or will they wait until after the debate?

[Jolly]

Trump needs to stick to the issues and make his case on the border, energy and the economy. Let her talk. In fact, encourage her to talk and explain what her policies are.

The only problem it's going to be three against one during the debate.

[Mik]

@George-K said in It’s starting:

"voters are unsure they know enough about where Kamala Harris stands"

Yeah, how about that.

Does it matter where she stands if she is unable to deliver on any of it?

[Copper]

We have had our share of embarrassing presidential behavior over the last 50 years.

But Ms. Harris could take us places we haven't yet imagined.

On the other hand, she could be wonderful. It's hard to say while she is hiding.

[George K]

@Mik said in It’s starting:

Does it matter where she stands if she is unable to deliver on any of it?

Bernie Sanders said the quiet part out loud this AM.

"She's saying doing what she needs to say do to get elected."

[Jolly]

@Copper said in It’s starting:

But Ms. Harris could take us places we haven't yet imagined.

Ask Willie Brown about that one...

[George K]

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

Ask Willie Brown about that one...