Busy US Hurricane Season - Be Careful!!!
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https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2024-04-17-weather-company-hurricane-season-outlook-april
The 2024 hurricane season will likely be one of the most active on record.
24 named storms and 11 hurricanes are forecast.
Warm water and lower wind shear are expected.The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could be one of the most active on record, according to a new outlook issued Thursday from The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.
It’s the most aggressive hurricane prediction since outlooks began in 2006.
Big numbers likely this year: The outlook issued on Thursday calls for 24 named storms, 11 of which will become hurricanes and six of which will reach Category 3 status or stronger.
That is well above the 30-year average tally for both hurricanes and storms, and also markedly above the tally of 20 storms, seven hurricanes and three Cat 3-plus hurricanes in 2023.
“Most of the evidence is lined up to suggest a very active and very impactful hurricane season in 2024,” say the forecasters at Atmospheric G2.
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Wildfires have already started. Several areas north of where I live are under evacuation alert. As of the today there is a province wide ban on open fires. Smoke was bad all last summer this year will probably be worse.
To compound things they are anticipating water shortages in all regions but especially in the south.
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Wildfires are at a low, iirc.
https://ourworldindata.org/wildfires
f you look at statistics from the Global Wildfire Information System shown in the chart here, since the early 2000s, there has been a noticeable decline in the annual extent of land affected by wildfires.4
To understand what’s going on, it’s useful to look at how areas burnt have changed across different landscapes. In the chart below, we see the amount of area burned by land cover. You can see that most of this decline has come from shrublands, grasslands, and croplands (with small declines in savannas). Forest fires have been relatively stable.
Much of this decline has occurred in Africa and, to a lesser extent, in Oceania. The data suggests small declines in Europe, too.
In a paper published in Science, researchers note this same trend: “Unexpectedly, global burned area declined by ∼25% over the past 18 years, despite the influence of climate.”5 They, too, point out that this is largely driven by a decline in burn rates in grasslands and savannas as a result of the expansion and intensification of agriculture.
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Really now? I doubt it, at least around these parts, I not only doubt it, I don’t fucking believe it at all.
@Renauda said in Busy US Hurricane Season - Be Careful!!!:
Really now? I doubt it, at least around these parts, I not onlyndoubt it, I don’t fucking believe it at all..
Those were worldwide numbers.
Here's Canadian wildfires:
ETA: These data do not include 2023.
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Last summer from mid May through to the latter half of August we couldn’t leave our windows open. The smell of smoke was that intense. There were days on end that the sun was nothing but a reddish yellow orb in the sky that resembled a dimmed 25 W light bulb.
2024 not looking at all promising. Since the beginnng of March we have only trace amounts of precipitation. When we drove through the Rockies the end of March, the mountain snow pack compared to the last four years was negligible, and West of the continental divide in BC the snow had already disappeared.
The only cause for optimism is that the El Niño current in the Pacific is weakening and the colder El Nina current will strengthen and take over. That usually means cooler temperatures and more precipitation. Usually….but not always.
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https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html
Probability of a hurricane landing on various counties in the US.
