Picking a Quarterback in the top 10 of the 1st round of the NFL Draft
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So moving up to draft a QB has been the hot topic on Steelers boards I frequent. I’ve been arguing vehemently against it, but it’s a small voice against a tidal wave… So I pulled some info to bolster my arguments. This is what I discovered (for the sake of brevity, I shortened this to just QBs taken in the top 10, not just the entire 1st round.
Here are the QBs drafted top 10 since 2008 (I skipped last year’s because it’s too soon to make judgements, though the Houston guy looks good and the Carolina guy looks bad)
Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen, Mitchell Trubiskey, Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, Andrew Luck, RG3, Ryan Tannehill, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Matt Ryan.
27 total. If you’re investing a top 10 pick, the pick is expected be an all time great QB. Somebody that will be a top 5-6 guy for their era that can put a team on their back and lead them to championships.
If they aren’t an all time great, you can also be happy with somebody that is very good. A top 10 QB that with a good team can win a championship, and will always contend for playoffs unless it’s a really bad team.
After very good comes serviceable starter. This is the last level before I get to what I would consider a wasted pick…They will have good years/bad years and be just good enough to still be starting in the league 10 years later, but probably not for the team they started with.
Career backups are QB’s that are good enough to stick in the league for 10 years or so, but most will be riding the pine or warming the starter spot for a rookie that’s developing. A worthy role, but not for a 1st round pick.
Flash in the pans are guys that showed something but faded away very quickly.
All Time Great: Burrow, Luck… 7.4%
Very Good: Herbert, Stafford, Ryan, Tua, Cam Newton 18.6%
Serviceable Starter: Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Ryan Tannehill, Lawrence, 14.9%
Career Backup: Bradford, Mariota, Winston, Jones 14.9%
Flash in the Pan: Watson, RG3, Murray 11.2%
Garbage - Total Dumpster Fire: Lance, Rosen, Trubiskey, Gabbert, Locker, Wentz, Bortles, Sanchez, Wilson. 33%
Nearly 60% of those picks are wasted and another 15% don’t really achieve your expectations. Seems like a bad deal to me…
The Brad
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You have two serviceable QBs if you keep Rudolph. To expend a top pick there would be foolish. You knew my opinion on Trubisky from day 1.
"The intelligent man who is proud of his intelligence is like the condemned man who is proud of his large cell." Simone Weil
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So moving up to draft a QB has been the hot topic on Steelers boards I frequent. I’ve been arguing vehemently against it, but it’s a small voice against a tidal wave… So I pulled some info to bolster my arguments. This is what I discovered (for the sake of brevity, I shortened this to just QBs taken in the top 10, not just the entire 1st round.
Here are the QBs drafted top 10 since 2008 (I skipped last year’s because it’s too soon to make judgements, though the Houston guy looks good and the Carolina guy looks bad)
Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen, Mitchell Trubiskey, Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, Andrew Luck, RG3, Ryan Tannehill, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Matt Ryan.
27 total. If you’re investing a top 10 pick, the pick is expected be an all time great QB. Somebody that will be a top 5-6 guy for their era that can put a team on their back and lead them to championships.
If they aren’t an all time great, you can also be happy with somebody that is very good. A top 10 QB that with a good team can win a championship, and will always contend for playoffs unless it’s a really bad team.
After very good comes serviceable starter. This is the last level before I get to what I would consider a wasted pick…They will have good years/bad years and be just good enough to still be starting in the league 10 years later, but probably not for the team they started with.
Career backups are QB’s that are good enough to stick in the league for 10 years or so, but most will be riding the pine or warming the starter spot for a rookie that’s developing. A worthy role, but not for a 1st round pick.
Flash in the pans are guys that showed something but faded away very quickly.
All Time Great: Burrow, Luck… 7.4%
Very Good: Herbert, Stafford, Ryan, Tua, Cam Newton 18.6%
Serviceable Starter: Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Ryan Tannehill, Lawrence, 14.9%
Career Backup: Bradford, Mariota, Winston, Jones 14.9%
Flash in the Pan: Watson, RG3, Murray 11.2%
Garbage - Total Dumpster Fire: Lance, Rosen, Trubiskey, Gabbert, Locker, Wentz, Bortles, Sanchez, Wilson. 33%
Nearly 60% of those picks are wasted and another 15% don’t really achieve your expectations. Seems like a bad deal to me…
@LuFins-Dad said in Picking a Quarterback in the top 10 of the 1st round of the NFL Draft:
Flash in the pans are guys that showed something but faded away very quickly.
All Time Great: Burrow, Luck… 7.4%
Very Good: Herbert, Stafford, Ryan, Tua, Cam Newton 18.6%
Serviceable Starter: Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Ryan Tannehill, Lawrence, 14.9%
Career Backup: Bradford, Mariota, Winston, Jones 14.9%
Flash in the Pan: Watson, RG3, Murray 11.2%
Garbage - Total Dumpster Fire: Lance, Rosen, Trubiskey, Gabbert, Locker, Wentz, Bortles, Sanchez, Wilson. 33%
Just a couple of small quibbles...
Famous Jameis...If you get him out of the F#ck it and Chuk it mentality, I think he can start for the right coach and the right team. Before Winston went down with a knee a couple of years ago, Payton had him playing some pretty decent ball. Not a great short throw guy, he can throw a nice 15 yard out or a good long ball.
Stafford...I would have loved to have seen Stafford with a better team and organization than the Lions. He's a gunslinger and would gamble, but he has a lot of arm strength and touch. I think he's a good starting QB that could have been a HOF.
Lastly, I agree with your other rankings. The one guy I'm most disappointed in is Lawrence. Guy has all the tools to be really good. Went to a very, very bad franchise.
“Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”
Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton
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You have two serviceable QBs if you keep Rudolph. To expend a top pick there would be foolish. You knew my opinion on Trubisky from day 1.
@Mik said in Picking a Quarterback in the top 10 of the 1st round of the NFL Draft:
You have two serviceable QBs if you keep Rudolph. To expend a top pick there would be foolish. You knew my opinion on Trubisky from day 1.
Oh definitely. I’m a Rudolph guy. Not that I think the guy will be the next Peyton Manning, but I think he could match an early Andy Dalton or Matt Ryan type. Pocket passer, good decision making, put the ball in the hands of the playmakers with enough room to make the plays. With a strong defense and a decent line you can go far…
And even Pickett can still develop. Maybe Rudolph is the anvil needed to shape Pickett the same way Joe Gilliam helped shape Bradshaw…
I’m just rethinking the whole race to trade up to the top 10… It’s just not worth it, IMO. If you are in the top 10, spend the pick on the most physical freak at the spot. The WR that is 6’7” but still runs a 4.3. The 350lb DT that just moves people… The 350lb guard that does the same… At that level I want the best physical specimen at a position that the brain doesn’t get in the way…
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@LuFins-Dad said in Picking a Quarterback in the top 10 of the 1st round of the NFL Draft:
Flash in the pans are guys that showed something but faded away very quickly.
All Time Great: Burrow, Luck… 7.4%
Very Good: Herbert, Stafford, Ryan, Tua, Cam Newton 18.6%
Serviceable Starter: Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Ryan Tannehill, Lawrence, 14.9%
Career Backup: Bradford, Mariota, Winston, Jones 14.9%
Flash in the Pan: Watson, RG3, Murray 11.2%
Garbage - Total Dumpster Fire: Lance, Rosen, Trubiskey, Gabbert, Locker, Wentz, Bortles, Sanchez, Wilson. 33%
Just a couple of small quibbles...
Famous Jameis...If you get him out of the F#ck it and Chuk it mentality, I think he can start for the right coach and the right team. Before Winston went down with a knee a couple of years ago, Payton had him playing some pretty decent ball. Not a great short throw guy, he can throw a nice 15 yard out or a good long ball.
Stafford...I would have loved to have seen Stafford with a better team and organization than the Lions. He's a gunslinger and would gamble, but he has a lot of arm strength and touch. I think he's a good starting QB that could have been a HOF.
Lastly, I agree with your other rankings. The one guy I'm most disappointed in is Lawrence. Guy has all the tools to be really good. Went to a very, very bad franchise.
@Jolly said in Picking a Quarterback in the top 10 of the 1st round of the NFL Draft:
@LuFins-Dad said in Picking a Quarterback in the top 10 of the 1st round of the NFL Draft:
Flash in the pans are guys that showed something but faded away very quickly.
All Time Great: Burrow, Luck… 7.4%
Very Good: Herbert, Stafford, Ryan, Tua, Cam Newton 18.6%
Serviceable Starter: Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Ryan Tannehill, Lawrence, 14.9%
Career Backup: Bradford, Mariota, Winston, Jones 14.9%
Flash in the Pan: Watson, RG3, Murray 11.2%
Garbage - Total Dumpster Fire: Lance, Rosen, Trubiskey, Gabbert, Locker, Wentz, Bortles, Sanchez, Wilson. 33%
Just a couple of small quibbles...
Famous Jameis...If you get him out of the F#ck it and Chuk it mentality, I think he can start for the right coach and the right team. Before Winston went down with a knee a couple of years ago, Payton had him playing some pretty decent ball. Not a great short throw guy, he can throw a nice 15 yard out or a good long ball.
Stafford...I would have loved to have seen Stafford with a better team and organization than the Lions. He's a gunslinger and would gamble, but he has a lot of arm strength and touch. I think he's a good starting QB that could have been a HOF.
Lastly, I agree with your other rankings. The one guy I'm most disappointed in is Lawrence. Guy has all the tools to be really good. Went to a very, very bad franchise.
What really hurts Stafford in a way was having “MEGATRON”… Calvin was an incredible WR, but a lot of people kinda assumed that Stafford succeeded only because of of him. I was glad to see him get a ring with LA, just wish it hadn’t come at the Bengals expense.
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Good analysis man. All I know is the Steelers have (in my amateur opinion) had a really great draft picking record compared to other teams. I really only followed their draft picks between about 2003-2015 but man they crushed it. Troy, Big Ben, many others… check these first round picks out:
