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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Coming China collapse?

Coming China collapse?

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved General Discussion
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  • JollyJ Offline
    JollyJ Offline
    Jolly
    wrote on last edited by
    #9

    Still, high rise housing sits empty, because investors will not lower the rent.

    Perhaps some cash flow is better than none?

    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

    taiwan_girlT 1 Reply Last reply
    • JollyJ Jolly

      Still, high rise housing sits empty, because investors will not lower the rent.

      Perhaps some cash flow is better than none?

      taiwan_girlT Offline
      taiwan_girlT Offline
      taiwan_girl
      wrote on last edited by
      #10

      @Jolly One of the problems is that a lot of the developments are only half finished.

      Or, if they are finished, no money for maintenance, management, etc.

      Kind of like the US housing "bubble" people in China bought not because they wanted a place to live, but as an investment. Now, those people are seeing that their investment is not so good any more. Demographic changes (population getting older and older) make the future outlook not so good anymore either.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • X Offline
        X Offline
        xenon
        wrote on last edited by
        #11

        Right - if they're not occupied now, will they ever be? The population decline is projected to be dramatic.

        1 Reply Last reply
        • 89th8 Offline
          89th8 Offline
          89th
          wrote on last edited by
          #12

          Seen on Reddit, so you know it's true. Still...

          China's birth rate has collapsed completely. 19.7m births were registered in 2012, compared to 7.8m births in 2023, which marks a 60% decline in just 11 years. Unprecedented for any country in peacetime.

          image.png

          1 Reply Last reply
          • X Offline
            X Offline
            xenon
            wrote on last edited by
            #13

            To add on to that, South Korea’s population is plummeting fast now. I think I saw a stat that the average age is projected to be 63 30 years from now.

            What kind of culture does a country have where the average age is retired?

            1 Reply Last reply
            • 89th8 Offline
              89th8 Offline
              89th
              wrote on last edited by
              #14

              One that thrives on healthcare?

              1 Reply Last reply
              • CopperC Offline
                CopperC Offline
                Copper
                wrote on last edited by
                #15

                Housing prices should be coming down.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • CopperC Offline
                  CopperC Offline
                  Copper
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #16

                  And lucky for us Mr. Biden saw this coming and invited millions of people to come here from other countries.

                  W 1 Reply Last reply
                  • CopperC Copper

                    And lucky for us Mr. Biden saw this coming and invited millions of people to come here from other countries.

                    W Offline
                    W Offline
                    Wim
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #17

                    @Copper In fact this could be a good thing, provided they sustain social welfare/pensions/etc by paying taxes.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • CopperC Offline
                      CopperC Offline
                      Copper
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #18

                      I say we should bring them all in - legally. Give them a voter ID and a tax bill.

                      W 1 Reply Last reply
                      • CopperC Copper

                        I say we should bring them all in - legally. Give them a voter ID and a tax bill.

                        W Offline
                        W Offline
                        Wim
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #19

                        @Copper Agreed.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • taiwan_girlT Offline
                          taiwan_girlT Offline
                          taiwan_girl
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #20

                          I am a big fan of legal immigration. The only reason the US is not like some other industrial countries (falling population, rapid aging population) is because of immigration. As mentioned above, it is a big problem in North Asia (China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan).

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • X Offline
                            X Offline
                            xenon
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #21

                            Immigrants tend to be more enterprising than the average person too. Takes a lot to uproot and go to a new place. It's not a guarantee, but it's not nothing either.

                            But agreed with TG - I think this is underappreciated right now. When the global population starts falling and we see the economic effects of depopulation, we'll start competing harder for immigrants.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • MikM Offline
                              MikM Offline
                              Mik
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #22

                              The question becomes what immigrants do we want?

                              "The intelligent man who is proud of his intelligence is like the condemned man who is proud of his large cell." Simone Weil

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • X Offline
                                X Offline
                                xenon
                                wrote on last edited by xenon
                                #23

                                Oh I completely agree. We're stuck in stupid land in this country though. We can't even agree on basics (whether borders should be enforced, what the right number of immgrants are, etc.)

                                Designing immigration policy is deceptively hard. In Canada they recently did skill based immigration - basically Mitt Romney's idea of stapling green cards to diplomas.

                                Always sounded like a great idea to me. BUT I've seen the downsides in Canada:

                                • A bunch of diploma mill colleges pop up that provide a shit educational product, but satisfy the legal requirements

                                • Migrants take on massive loans from their home countries to get here, then massive educational loans, then face massive housing costs on top of that - not a bright future

                                • Lots of young people come here without any family - which makes it really hard to assimilate. At least with family migration you have people to show you the ropes, these young immigrants just stick to each other and their old culture

                                Anyways - I'm rambling now. But immigration policy is hard enough without being stuck on stupid.

                                CopperC 1 Reply Last reply
                                • MikM Offline
                                  MikM Offline
                                  Mik
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #24

                                  Yes, and we've been stuck on it for decades now.

                                  "The intelligent man who is proud of his intelligence is like the condemned man who is proud of his large cell." Simone Weil

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • JollyJ Offline
                                    JollyJ Offline
                                    Jolly
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #25

                                    It's not hard. We had a braceros program for years. It worked. Temporary green card, go back home when the farm season is over. Keep a clean record and renewal is automatic.

                                    For more permanent immigrants, vet them and issue green cards by lottery, with exceptions for close family of U.S. citizens or areas of high need, such as physicians.

                                    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • X xenon

                                      Oh I completely agree. We're stuck in stupid land in this country though. We can't even agree on basics (whether borders should be enforced, what the right number of immgrants are, etc.)

                                      Designing immigration policy is deceptively hard. In Canada they recently did skill based immigration - basically Mitt Romney's idea of stapling green cards to diplomas.

                                      Always sounded like a great idea to me. BUT I've seen the downsides in Canada:

                                      • A bunch of diploma mill colleges pop up that provide a shit educational product, but satisfy the legal requirements

                                      • Migrants take on massive loans from their home countries to get here, then massive educational loans, then face massive housing costs on top of that - not a bright future

                                      • Lots of young people come here without any family - which makes it really hard to assimilate. At least with family migration you have people to show you the ropes, these young immigrants just stick to each other and their old culture

                                      Anyways - I'm rambling now. But immigration policy is hard enough without being stuck on stupid.

                                      CopperC Offline
                                      CopperC Offline
                                      Copper
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #26

                                      @xenon said in Coming China collapse?:

                                      At least with family migration you have people to show you the ropes

                                      I'm sure their professors will fill their heads with great ideas.

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