The zoomies are not all right...
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Why would the Kremlin sign a bogus armistice then wait ten years when he can have it all in the next year or so? He doesn’t mind feeding more men into his meat grinder. Most of them are simple uneducated rural boys and ethnic minorities of dubious loyalty and utility at the best of times. After all, the man in the Kremlin has an Imperial legacy to leave his people.
A decade is too long to wait to reclaim that empire stretching to the German border.
“Little by little I am learning the art of being quite content by doing very little slowly” ~ Lionel Hardcastle
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@Jolly said in The zoomies are not all right...:
The Ukranians will blunt their teeth on the Russian trenches and minefields, eventually giving up territory in a peace deal. The Russian snake will digest it's meal, then try to grab another 10-15% of Ukraine in ten years.
To the cheers of magats everywhere.
DON’T let them eat cake.
- RFK Jr -
@jon-nyc said in The zoomies are not all right...:
@Jolly said in The zoomies are not all right...:
The Ukranians will blunt their teeth on the Russian trenches and minefields, eventually giving up territory in a peace deal. The Russian snake will digest it's meal, then try to grab another 10-15% of Ukraine in ten years.
To the cheers of magats everywhere.
Non sequitur.
The question is who is winning the Ukraine War. The answer I gave is based on where we are right now and the assets available to both sides. Russia is now fighting a defensive war, behind mine fields and earthworks. Russia also has air superiority, albeit somewhat negated by modern weapons such as Stingers.
The Ukrainians have a manpower problem. That becomes exacerbated when trying to fight an offensive war. They would best be served by a breakout and a war of maneuver, but between the Russian defenses and the Russian air force, I'm not sure they can. And even if they can manage to push into the Russian lines, they are losing soldiers they cannot replace.
IMO, we're eventually going to see a peace agreement, with Russia retaining most of what they currently occupy. Then after the wounds are healed, Russia comes back to take another bite or they go after another former satellite state.
Internal Russian politics may change that. I don't know what happens after Putin is gone. I do know I have been very disappointed in the Europeans. They should be much more proactive in their support of Ukraine with money and material. And they should also be taking a very hard look at their own armed forces.
Always remember, Operation Valkyrie was an act of sedition.
Warning: I post things that interest me. Read and comment at your own discretion. -
@Renauda said in The zoomies are not all right...:
Why would the Kremlin sign a bogus armistice then wait ten years when he can have it all in the next year or so? He doesn’t mind feeding more men into his meat grinder. Most of them are simple uneducated rural boys and ethnic minorities of dubious loyalty and utility at the best of times. After all, the man in the Kremlin has an Imperial legacy to leave his people.
A decade is too long to wait to reclaim that empire stretching to the German border.
You may well be right, but at what point do the Russian people start to rebel against the Kremlin due to the mounting casualties? Surely, there has to be a point where this happens?
Always remember, Operation Valkyrie was an act of sedition.
Warning: I post things that interest me. Read and comment at your own discretion. -
"My pronouns are FA/FO." - Mik, 2024
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@Mik said in The zoomies are not all right...:
The problem with waiting is Putin probably doesn’t have ten or fifteen years to wait.
True, but I don't know the beliefs of those following him. I think Renauda has spoken before about a Russian view of empire and how many Russians share that view.
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@Jolly said in The zoomies are not all right...:
@Renauda said in The zoomies are not all right...:
Why would the Kremlin sign a bogus armistice then wait ten years when he can have it all in the next year or so? He doesn’t mind feeding more men into his meat grinder. Most of them are simple uneducated rural boys and ethnic minorities of dubious loyalty and utility at the best of times. After all, the man in the Kremlin has an Imperial legacy to leave his people.
A decade is too long to wait to reclaim that empire stretching to the German border.
You may well be right, but at what point do the Russian people start to rebel against the Kremlin due to the mounting casualties? Surely, there has to be a point where this happens?
Russians have long resigned themselves to a reality that the state is a repressive institution directed by a privileged few. Given that, so long as there is plenty of food available at the local stores and markets, Russians will lament their dead and wounded but remain passive. I can tell you with first hand authority that Putin makes sure there is an abundance of affordable food for the country. Western sanctions have not made any unbearable hardship or hunger for the average Russian.
I do not see any change on the horizon. If anything, only increasing hostility and resentment towards all things Western.
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@Copper said in The zoomies are not all right...:
Even more distressing, the service’s leaders show no interest in pulling out of that downward spiral.
Curious as why this is? Hard to believe that they are intentional doing this.
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IMO, we're eventually going to see a peace agreement, with Russia retaining most of what they currently occupy. Then after the wounds are healed, Russia comes back to take another bite or they go after another former satellite state.
The issue then is not who wins the war. From what you say it is a given that Russia wins on the battlefield.
So let’s say there is an armistice and Russia retains what it has occupied since 2014 (that is when this war started). The real issue then is who wins the peace?
First and foremost, the US in its capacity as the only invested continental military and political power in Europe to counterbalance Russia, must be at the table alongside Ukraine. Washington has to play role of honest broker and arbiter of the peace
Ideally, Ukraine should be able to claim reparations from Russia although I believe that would be like drawing blood from a rock. Table it but be prepared to abandon it.
Non negotiable conditions of any armistice must include Ukraine’s ability to 1) join the EU and 2) station NATO troops on its soil in a deterrence/peacekeeping capacity until such time Ukraine can become a full member of NATO.
It’s all about winning the peace not the war. History has repeatedly shown that Russia can win wars (at unbearable human costs) but it has yet to ever win the peace in the long run. Right now I would wager that Russia stands no chance of winning the peace any time in the next fifty years or more.
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Does the U.S. have to be the counter-balance? Surely some of the European nations could step up to the table?
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No. It has to be the US, no other European power can act as a credible deterrent or post armistice arbiter with what is left of a sovereign Ukraine. Besides, it is only with the US that the Kremlin will negotiate in anything that could remotely resemble good faith.
As for alternative continental power to Russia that is the role the US chose for itself in 1945. Nothing has changed in that regard since. The UK and France can only ride its coat tails. Germany and Poland are merely concerned proximity stakeholders in the game. But you know this. I have pointed it out numerous times in this
denforum of short term attention and perpetual iniquity. -
You can point it out, but the world changes, as does responsibilities and budgets.
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The United States is not the world's 911 service. With our ever-increasing debt, that is becoming more true every day. We've currently spent over $113B in Ukraine. I know that's more than the rest of the world combined. It might be as much as twice as the rest of the world combined.
Always remember, Operation Valkyrie was an act of sedition.
Warning: I post things that interest me. Read and comment at your own discretion. -
The 911 service quip does not fly. Whether you like it or not the world and Europe in particular, has been living since 1945 under Pax Americana. You can’t change that because that is the global reality that brought us all to where we are.
Strategic aid to Ukraine is a lot cheaper than sending troops. The option is there for the US and NATO.
Other NATO members are doing what they can given their GDP and tax base. There is a high cost to everyone. It’s called collective security.
For the record here, I am ashamed my country is not giving and investing more in supporting Ukraine and its own defence and security. If it were up to me a minimum of 4% of GDP would go to defence and security and I am personally doing what I can locally to lobby for what amounts to a forlorn hope in this country among the electorate and all political parties.
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@Jolly said in The zoomies are not all right...:
The United States is not the world's 911 service. With our ever-increasing debt, that is becoming more true every day. We've currently spent over $113B in Ukraine. I know that's more than the rest of the world combined. It might be as much as twice as the rest of the world combined.
90% of it spent domestically. Best bang for buck of defense dollars I can think of.
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Don't believe in MMT. I do believe the piper will have to be paid at some point. In the eternal question of guns or butter, at some point the expensive projection of power over the globe will falter.
For recent example, I give you Great Britain.
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I am a believer in the power of foreign policy and helping other countries. As the world has gotten smaller and more connected together, I think this is the wrong time to move to be isolation.
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Vladimir Putin would prefer a US president who takes a “more constructive” approach to Russia and understands the “importance of dialogue,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has declared.
Asked whether Putin could work with Donald Trump, Peskov told NBC News that the Russian president could work with “anyone who will understand that from now on, you have to be more careful with Russia and you have to take into account its concerns.”
Though Putin has previously praised Trump’s intention to resolve the war in Ukraine within 24 hours, Peskov said the situation is “too complex” for such a swift resolution.
Peskov has also said that Russia is ready to talk with the US, but only on its own terms, according to state news agency RIA.
Emphasis mine. I read that as Putin has no intention to talk, let alone negotiate in good faith.
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R Renauda referenced this topic on
