The zoomies are not all right...

[Copper]

In sum, the Air Force today would struggle to execute another Desert Storm, much less take on a peer adversary like China. Even more distressing, the service’s leaders show no interest in pulling out of that downward spiral.

Scary

[Jolly]

Much.

We often promote the wrong officers in peacetime. Ticket punchers are not always good leaders, especially combat leaders.

We also don't always field the best mix of equipment. Right now, we're depending heavily on technology as a force multiplier.

That may not be optimum.

[George K]

@Jolly said in The zoomies are not all right...:

Right now, we're depending heavily on technology as a force multiplier.

And have for a long time.

I remember seeing a story about Russian fighters. Dumb, but durable.

[Axtremus]

@Jolly said in The zoomies are not all right...:

Right now, we're depending heavily on technology as a force multiplier.

That may not be optimum.

That's how the nation has been prioritizing different things. Loads of funding to fund weapons R&D and acquisition, paltry funding for education -- cut the Department of Education and leave education to the local governments, they say.

[Doctor Phibes]

@George-K said in The zoomies are not all right...:

I remember seeing a story about Russian fighters. Dumb, but durable.

A bit like their leaders.

How's it working out for them?

[Jolly]

@Doctor-Phibes said in The zoomies are not all right...:

@George-K said in The zoomies are not all right...:

I remember seeing a story about Russian fighters. Dumb, but durable.

A bit like their leaders.

How's it working out for them?

They're winning.

[Renauda]

@Jolly said in The zoomies are not all right...:

@Doctor-Phibes said in The zoomies are not all right...:

@George-K said in The zoomies are not all right...:

I remember seeing a story about Russian fighters. Dumb, but durable.

A bit like their leaders.

How's it working out for them?

They're winning.

Who are “they” and how are “they” winning?

[Doctor Phibes]

@Jolly said in The zoomies are not all right...:

@Doctor-Phibes said in The zoomies are not all right...:

@George-K said in The zoomies are not all right...:

I remember seeing a story about Russian fighters. Dumb, but durable.

A bit like their leaders.

How's it working out for them?

They're winning.

Yeah, it's been a real walk-over.

If you honestly think the US should base it's military on that of the Russians, I don't know what to say.

[Jolly]

@Renauda said in The zoomies are not all right...:

@Jolly said in The zoomies are not all right...:

@Doctor-Phibes said in The zoomies are not all right...:

@George-K said in The zoomies are not all right...:

I remember seeing a story about Russian fighters. Dumb, but durable.

A bit like their leaders.

How's it working out for them?

They're winning.

Who are “they” and how are “they” winning?

Russians. They still control about 18% of Ukraine. The war has become a war of defense for Russia and the Ukranians cannot draw them into a war of maneuver. Maybe, if they had air superiority, but they don't.

The Ukranians do not have the numbers to fight a war of attrition, and their average age is getting a good bit older than the Russians.

The Ukranians will blunt their teeth on the Russian trenches and minefields, eventually giving up territory in a peace deal. The Russian snake will digest it's meal, then try to grab another 10-15% of Ukraine in ten years.

[Renauda]

Why would the Kremlin sign a bogus armistice then wait ten years when he can have it all in the next year or so? He doesn’t mind feeding more men into his meat grinder. Most of them are simple uneducated rural boys and ethnic minorities of dubious loyalty and utility at the best of times. After all, the man in the Kremlin has an Imperial legacy to leave his people.

A decade is too long to wait to reclaim that empire stretching to the German border.

[jon-nyc]

@Jolly said in The zoomies are not all right...:

The Ukranians will blunt their teeth on the Russian trenches and minefields, eventually giving up territory in a peace deal. The Russian snake will digest it's meal, then try to grab another 10-15% of Ukraine in ten years.

To the cheers of magats everywhere.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in The zoomies are not all right...:

@Jolly said in The zoomies are not all right...:

The Ukranians will blunt their teeth on the Russian trenches and minefields, eventually giving up territory in a peace deal. The Russian snake will digest it's meal, then try to grab another 10-15% of Ukraine in ten years.

To the cheers of magats everywhere.

Non sequitur.

The question is who is winning the Ukraine War. The answer I gave is based on where we are right now and the assets available to both sides. Russia is now fighting a defensive war, behind mine fields and earthworks. Russia also has air superiority, albeit somewhat negated by modern weapons such as Stingers.

The Ukrainians have a manpower problem. That becomes exacerbated when trying to fight an offensive war. They would best be served by a breakout and a war of maneuver, but between the Russian defenses and the Russian air force, I'm not sure they can. And even if they can manage to push into the Russian lines, they are losing soldiers they cannot replace.

IMO, we're eventually going to see a peace agreement, with Russia retaining most of what they currently occupy. Then after the wounds are healed, Russia comes back to take another bite or they go after another former satellite state.

Internal Russian politics may change that. I don't know what happens after Putin is gone. I do know I have been very disappointed in the Europeans. They should be much more proactive in their support of Ukraine with money and material. And they should also be taking a very hard look at their own armed forces.

[Jolly]

@Renauda said in The zoomies are not all right...:

Why would the Kremlin sign a bogus armistice then wait ten years when he can have it all in the next year or so? He doesn’t mind feeding more men into his meat grinder. Most of them are simple uneducated rural boys and ethnic minorities of dubious loyalty and utility at the best of times. After all, the man in the Kremlin has an Imperial legacy to leave his people.

A decade is too long to wait to reclaim that empire stretching to the German border.

You may well be right, but at what point do the Russian people start to rebel against the Kremlin due to the mounting casualties? Surely, there has to be a point where this happens?

[Mik]

The problem with waiting is Putin probably doesn’t have ten or fifteen years to wait.

[Jolly]

@Mik said in The zoomies are not all right...:

The problem with waiting is Putin probably doesn’t have ten or fifteen years to wait.

True, but I don't know the beliefs of those following him. I think Renauda has spoken before about a Russian view of empire and how many Russians share that view.

[Renauda]

@Jolly said in The zoomies are not all right...:

@Renauda said in The zoomies are not all right...:

Why would the Kremlin sign a bogus armistice then wait ten years when he can have it all in the next year or so? He doesn’t mind feeding more men into his meat grinder. Most of them are simple uneducated rural boys and ethnic minorities of dubious loyalty and utility at the best of times. After all, the man in the Kremlin has an Imperial legacy to leave his people.

A decade is too long to wait to reclaim that empire stretching to the German border.

You may well be right, but at what point do the Russian people start to rebel against the Kremlin due to the mounting casualties? Surely, there has to be a point where this happens?

Russians have long resigned themselves to a reality that the state is a repressive institution directed by a privileged few. Given that, so long as there is plenty of food available at the local stores and markets, Russians will lament their dead and wounded but remain passive. I can tell you with first hand authority that Putin makes sure there is an abundance of affordable food for the country. Western sanctions have not made any unbearable hardship or hunger for the average Russian.

I do not see any change on the horizon. If anything, only increasing hostility and resentment towards all things Western.

[taiwan_girl]

@Copper said in The zoomies are not all right...:

Even more distressing, the service’s leaders show no interest in pulling out of that downward spiral.

Curious as why this is? Hard to believe that they are intentional doing this.

[Renauda]

@Jolly

IMO, we're eventually going to see a peace agreement, with Russia retaining most of what they currently occupy. Then after the wounds are healed, Russia comes back to take another bite or they go after another former satellite state.

The issue then is not who wins the war. From what you say it is a given that Russia wins on the battlefield.

So let’s say there is an armistice and Russia retains what it has occupied since 2014 (that is when this war started). The real issue then is who wins the peace?

First and foremost, the US in its capacity as the only invested continental military and political power in Europe to counterbalance Russia, must be at the table alongside Ukraine. Washington has to play role of honest broker and arbiter of the peace

Ideally, Ukraine should be able to claim reparations from Russia although I believe that would be like drawing blood from a rock. Table it but be prepared to abandon it.

Non negotiable conditions of any armistice must include Ukraine’s ability to 1) join the EU and 2) station NATO troops on its soil in a deterrence/peacekeeping capacity until such time Ukraine can become a full member of NATO.

It’s all about winning the peace not the war. History has repeatedly shown that Russia can win wars (at unbearable human costs) but it has yet to ever win the peace in the long run. Right now I would wager that Russia stands no chance of winning the peace any time in the next fifty years or more.

[Jolly]

Does the U.S. have to be the counter-balance? Surely some of the European nations could step up to the table?

[Renauda]

No. It has to be the US, no other European power can act as a credible deterrent or post armistice arbiter with what is left of a sovereign Ukraine. Besides, it is only with the US that the Kremlin will negotiate in anything that could remotely resemble good faith.

As for alternative continental power to Russia that is the role the US chose for itself in 1945. Nothing has changed in that regard since. The UK and France can only ride its coat tails. Germany and Poland are merely concerned proximity stakeholders in the game. But you know this. I have pointed it out numerous times in this den forum of short term attention and perpetual iniquity.