Hamas attacks Israel
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@jon-nyc said in Hamas attacks Israel:
Did people take my previous post as trying to make some moral point?
No, I don't think that you were trying to make a moral point.
The tweet was. To wit:
"-1500+ Palestinian children killed in Gaza
-750K+ Pals displaced
-300K Istaelis (sic) displaced"I don't dispute the facts (though, like @LuFins-Dad I question the source of the Gazan numbers)), but framing in this fashion is certainly making a moral point, imo.
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@jon-nyc said in Hamas attacks Israel:
You really don’t know where this group got their estimates. It’s hardly a pro-Hamas account.
Fair point. Until the source of the estimates is revealed, however, I'll be skeptical.
ETA: This account also posted this.
"There has to be a way to call for a ceasefire and ensure safety of Palestinians while also addressing the need to debilitate Hamas and restore safety for Israelis, while at the same time demanding a solution that ends the siege/occupation of OPT."
OPT: "Occupied Palestinian Territories?"
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@jon-nyc said in Hamas attacks Israel:
You really don’t know where this group got their estimates. It’s hardly a pro-Hamas account.
The Palestinian numbers match exactly what many news outlets are reporting, citing Palestinian Health Ministry
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Are you really that skeptical? The numbers more or less pass the sniff test.
750k displaced could be a bit high, but you have to remember it’s not just northern Gazans who evacuated, there are plenty of others who’s homes have been destroyed.
And ~3k civilian deaths is in the ballpark of what I’d expect after 15 days of more or less continuous airstrikes. I’d be surprised if it were much lower than that.
It’s always something.
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@jon-nyc said in Hamas attacks Israel:
Are you really that skeptical? The numbers more or less pass the sniff test.
750k displaced could be a bit high, but you have to remember it’s not just northern Gazans who evacuated, there are plenty of others who’s homes have been destroyed.
And ~3k civilian deaths is in the ballpark of what I’d expect after 15 days of bombing. I’d be surprised if it were much lower than that.
I’m not being skeptical, the cites are all over the media. The numbers/fatalities are being reported by the Ministry of Health, there are no other sources. https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-flash-update-15
That is the only source for numbers, and there have been several reports concerning them inflating numbers as well as hiding Hamas deaths as civilian…
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By the way, how many of the 1500 children were actually killed by Hamas rockets that misfired? We know that in addition to the hospital, at least 500 rockets launched out of Gaza misfired and landed in occupied Gaza… And those buildings and places hit did not have a warning to evacuate.
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@LuFins-Dad said in Hamas attacks Israel:
@Axtremus said in Hamas attacks Israel:
@LuFins-Dad said in Hamas attacks Israel:
Because the target of those bombings are not people, but equipment, weapons, communication gear, etc…
Can the equipment, weapons, communications gear, etc. not be moved by the terrorists/militants/rapists/murderers as they evacuate along with the civilians in light of the pre-bombing warnings?
In 5 minutes? Best of luck.
Is there a reason you cite “5 minutes” rather than “5 seconds” or “5 hours” or “5 days”?
Is that enough to evacuate the children, the elderly, and the infirm?
If there is enough time to evacuate the children, the elderly, and the infirm (think moving all from the orphanages, schools, old folks homes, hospital patients, including the ICUs and the maternity wards), would there not be enough time to move equipments, weapons, communications gear, etc.?
If there is not enough time to evacuate the children, the elderly, and the infirm, is the warning then merely performative PR?
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@LuFins-Dad said in Hamas attacks Israel:
By the way, how many of the 1500 children were actually killed by Hamas rockets that misfired? We know that in addition to the hospital, at least 500 rockets launched out of Gaza misfired and landed in occupied Gaza… And those buildings and places hit did not have a warning to evacuate.
The number she reported wasn't pretending to differentiate.
Serious question - wouldn't you expect a few thousand civilian deaths in 15 days of near continuous airstrikes and off target Hamas missiles? Even given the care the IAF is taking?
It’s always something.
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@jon-nyc said in Hamas attacks Israel:
@LuFins-Dad said in Hamas attacks Israel:
By the way, how many of the 1500 children were actually killed by Hamas rockets that misfired? We know that in addition to the hospital, at least 500 rockets launched out of Gaza misfired and landed in occupied Gaza… And those buildings and places hit did not have a warning to evacuate.
The number she reported wasn't pretending to differentiate.
Serious question - wouldn't you expect a few thousand civilian deaths in 15 days of near continuous airstrikes and off target Hamas missiles? Even given the care the IAF is taking?
That seems very possible. It also seems possible to be more, and possibly less. That really isn’t enough information to make a judgement on. The information we do have supplied is 1500 children. That information is supplied by the Hamas Health Ministry that has been caught inflating numbers in the past. So is it reasonable to cast some doubt on their numbers?
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If that’s who came from then sure. But the numbers don’t seem ridiculously high.
And the expectation would be children would be 50% of civilian casualties given the demographics of the place.
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@jon-nyc said in Hamas attacks Israel:
And the expectation would be children would be 50% of civilian casualties given the demographics of the place.
True. However "children" is a pretty fluid term.
A 16 year old child carjacked a car in Chicago the other night. So did a 14 year old child.
"Culture..."
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@jon-nyc said in Hamas attacks Israel:
If that’s who came from then sure. But the numbers don’t seem ridiculously high.
And the expectation would be children would be 50% of civilian casualties given the demographics of the place.
If the IDF was just randomly chucking bombs, sure. They aren’t. Let’s factor in how many actually followed the IDF’s instructions to leave the area? While I’m sure that many did not, I am also willing to bet many did. And of those that did leave, it would seem likely to be disproportionately families with children. Next we have to know the actual targets. What types of buildings are they? If apartment buildings then the number of children casualties would be high. If offices, manufacturing centers, etc… The number would likely quite low. Also, how effective are the roof knocks? Are people leaving the buildings? Or are they being forced to stay in the building?
There are way too many variables IMO to sit there and say “that feels right”.
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I think 300k Israelis displaced is high. I see on tv reports that 150k people have been moved from borders (north and south) to hotels (financed by the government).
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Saw another tweet saying they’re going to evacuate a couple of additional towns in the north.
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The Atlantic article on Netanyahu:
"The End of Netanyahu"
The article lists Netanyahu's various missteps over the years, argues that Netanyahu should resign right after the war, and predicts that Netanyahu will not be elected into Israeli leadership again.
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The biggest intelligence failure in a half century happened on his watch. I understand letting him conduct the war, you don’t change horses mid-river. But I can’t imagine how they could tolerate him after that.
If he were a mensch he’d have already announced that he’s stepping down after the war. But he’s actually a felon who needs the post to stay out of prison.
