Magical Thinking

[Horace]

Among the never-Trumpers lurk never-Republicans, who don't want to show their hand until they have to.

[Jolly]

@xenon said in Magical Thinking:

Don't buy the argument. In the general, any of the top GOP candidates would do better than Trump.

Up against Biden and Kamala? They'd wipe the floor.

You want the MAGA folks to sit on their hands, come election?

[xenon]

@Jolly if the choice were between Biden and a gop candidate, the maga people would go for the gop candidate. I guess some would abstain. They ain’t voting Biden.

Trump is just gonna get maga. Maga keeps losing in generals. Maybe it would be different this time around. I don’t see why it would though.

[Jolly]

@xenon said in Magical Thinking:

@Jolly if the choice were between Biden and a gop candidate, the maga people would go for the gop candidate. I guess some would abstain. They ain’t voting Biden.

Trump is just gonna get maga. Maga keeps losing in generals. Maybe it would be different this time around. I don’t see why it would though.

1. Trump, especially depending on the economy, will draw more than just MAGA.
2. If the MAGA folks believe the fix is in, I could easily see them staying home.

[Doctor Phibes]

@Jolly said in Magical Thinking:

If the MAGA folks believe the fix is in, I could easily see them staying home.

It would be highly ironic if all of Trump's endless whining about election fraud lost him the election.

[taiwan_girl]

@xenon said in Magical Thinking:

Trump is just gonna get maga. Maga keeps losing in generals. Maybe it would be different this time around. I don’t see why it would though.

This.

President Trump, at this point in his career, will have a difficult time expanding his vote past the "hard core" supporters of him. I just dont see him capturing a majority of the "middle of the road" voters.

The US economy is moving in the right direction. If (and it is a big if) the economy trends continue, the days of high inflation will be 2 years in the past, unemployment is low, I think interest rates will have started to drop. People have short memories will help the Democrats.

[George K]

@taiwan_girl said in Magical Thinking:

The US economy is moving in the right direction

Probably.

The question is what will the population see when they vote. All of us can look at the numbers and nod...it might, might, be improving.

But Joe the Plumber will see groceries that cost a lot more than when the Orange Peril was in office. Gas is more expensive, and forget about buying a house with a 7% mortgage (I know, that's still low, but memories are short).

It's the economy, stupid. And, as we said yesterday, perception is reality. Graphs and charts aren't.

[jon-nyc]

@Jolly said in Magical Thinking:

@xenon said in Magical Thinking:

Don't buy the argument. In the general, any of the top GOP candidates would do better than Trump.

Up against Biden and Kamala? They'd wipe the floor.

You want the MAGA folks to sit on their hands, come election?

Oh come on, I’m sure Trump would travel the country in support of the nominee that beat him in the primary.

[Doctor Phibes]

@jon-nyc said in Magical Thinking:

Oh come on, I’m sure Trump would travel the country in support of the nominee that beat him in the primary.

If I'm honest, my main reason for wanting Trump to lose in the primary is how hilarious the spectacle of him attacking the Republican Party will be.

I know it's childish and petty.

[LuFins Dad]

@xenon said in Magical Thinking:

@Jolly if the choice were between Biden and a gop candidate, the maga people would go for the gop candidate. I guess some would abstain. They ain’t voting Biden.

Trump is just gonna get maga. Maga keeps losing in generals. Maybe it would be different this time around. I don’t see why it would though.

72 million votes last election. That’s an unbelievable and almost unprecedented jump in the number of votes for a candidate. 20% more than Romney…

Of course, otoh the reason it’s only “almost” unprecedented is because there was an even larger increase in the number of anti-Trump voters….Nearly 25%…

[Jolly]

Voters? Or ballots?

[Renauda]

@jon-nyc said in Magical Thinking:

@Jolly said in Magical Thinking:

@xenon said in Magical Thinking:

Don't buy the argument. In the general, any of the top GOP candidates would do better than Trump.

Up against Biden and Kamala? They'd wipe the floor.

You want the MAGA folks to sit on their hands, come election?

Oh come on, I’m sure Trump would travel the country in support of the nominee that beat him in the primary.

Not exactly true to form but would indeed be sporting of him.

Have reservations whether it could come to pass.

[Jolly]

BTW, I think the vote totals this year will be less.