Down 15%?

[Larry]

@Jolly said in Down 15%?:

@Aqua-Letifer said in Down 15%?:

Pretty hard to take seriously any "news" outlet that doesn't know the difference between less and fewer.

The US is experiencing 34,000 less deaths in 2020 than in the prior four years but we are concerned about a virus that to date as of March 31, 2020 that had a total of 4,000 US deaths?

I love how we're more than a month into this and we still haven't quite wrapped our heads around what "exponential growth" means.

They're not looking at an in toto number.

Link to video

[jon-nyc]

Jolly try to put his actual arguments into words and I think it will be really apparent how ridiculous it is.

[Doctor Phibes]

Is it possible the total fatality statistics haven't been accurately reported as yet because everybody's attention is elsewhere?

[jon-nyc]

It's something like this:

1. We invoked unprecedented social distancing measures in order to combat Covid-19.
2. As a result, we are experiencing fewer deaths from all causes than most recent years.
3. Ergo, the threat from Covid-19 was a hoax.

[Klaus]

On the other hand, there are projections that the overall deaths caused by the recession (which is in turn currently caused by the lockdown) will far exceed the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 itself.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in Down 15%?:

Jolly try to put his actual arguments into words and I think it will be really apparent how ridiculous it is.

That's because you're focused on the last paragraph. Consider the numbers without it.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in Down 15%?:

It's something like this:

1. We invoked unprecedented social distancing measures in order to combat Covid-19.
2. As a result, we are experiencing fewer deaths from all causes than most recent years.
3. Ergo, the threat from Covid-19 was a hoax.

My philosophy professor would be proud of you!

[Jolly]

@Klaus said in Down 15%?:

On the other hand, there are projections that the overall deaths caused by the recession (which is in turn currently caused by the lockdown) will far exceed the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 itself.

Also interesting.

[jon-nyc]

@Klaus said in Down 15%?:

On the other hand, there are projections that the overall deaths caused by the recession (which is in turn currently caused by the lockdown) will far exceed the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 itself.

Show me one with a non-laughable amount of reasoning behind it.

[Klaus]

Today there’s an article about that in Die Welt. I didn’t link to it because it’s in German and paywalled.

[Klaus]

Here’s one English language source referenced in that article.

https://www.ifpri.org/blog/how-much-will-global-poverty-increase-because-covid-19

[jon-nyc]

Thanks Klaus I’ll have a look.

[jon-nyc]

JD Vance says the all-cause drop is not real. CDC takes months to compile the stats. Not sure his source on that.

[Doctor Phibes]

I would have thought it would take a fair amount of time to compile death statistics for the entire country, particularly when the CDC is more than busy with other things.

What's odd is how hard some people seem to want to try to deny what at this point should be screamingly bloody obvious.