The Ukraine war thread
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The Russian Military Is Destroying Itself
The British Military Intelligence has assessed that “a significant minority” of Russian casualties in Ukraine have been caused “due to non-combat causes.
Non-combat deaths are normal on a battlefield. But Russian Telegram news channels report “extremely high” numbers of deaths linked to alcohol consumption and crime.
“Other leading causes of non-combat casualties likely include poor weapon handing drills, road traffic accidents and climatic injuries such as hypothermia. Russian commanders likely identify pervasive alcohol abuse as particularly detrimental to combat effectiveness,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate on the war.
Although completely foreign to Western professional miliary forces, alcohol consumption is an integral part of Russian culture, especially Russian military culture.
“However, with heavy drinking pervasive across much of Russian society, it has long been seen as a tacitly accepted part of military life, even on combat operations,” the British Military Intelligence added.
Interestingly, the British Military Intelligence assessed that the Russian forces have lost up to 200,000 troops and didn’t corroborate the U.S. intelligence figure of more than 220,000 Russians killed or wounded. It is additionally perplexing because British Defense Minister Ben Wallace was the one who cited the U.S. intelligence figures earlier in the week.
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Bill Clinton’s remorse:
https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2023/0404/1374162-clinton-ukraine/
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Bill Clinton’s remorse:
https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2023/0404/1374162-clinton-ukraine/
@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
Bill Clinton’s remorse:
https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2023/0404/1374162-clinton-ukraine/
I saw that story yesterday. Do you think Ukraine would have actually used nukes if Russia invaded?
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
Bill Clinton’s remorse:
https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2023/0404/1374162-clinton-ukraine/
I saw that story yesterday. Do you think Ukraine would have actually used nukes if Russia invaded?
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Hard to say, but I think it would have been more of a deterrent. At the time I suspect we were thinking Ukraine would be part of NATO.
@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
Hard to say, but I think it would have been more of a deterrent. At the time I suspect we were thinking Ukraine would be part of NATO.
Not that I recall at the time or, from what I have subsequently read. Russia wanted all the Soviet nuclear weapons in former republics on Russian soil. The US, Britain and France also wanted the the nukes out of all former republics except Russia. Kazakhstan gave up all weapons with no or few strings attached. Ukraine on the other hand, bartered the weapons for energy and security guarantees from Russia and billions of dollars in aid from the US and Britain to decommission, clean up and encapsulate the Chernobyl reactor site and its surroundings.
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NATO not a threat to Russian security but it is a threat to Russian imperialism:
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I had missed this item from the newsfeed of the last ten days.
Appears that Hungary has now been added to Putin’s naughty list:
https://hungarytoday.hu/russia-hungary-friendship-relations-unfriendly-countries/
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Interesting read, but you have to use Google translate...
Https://glavcom.ua/columns/vitaliykulik/chomu-pekin-publichno-vidvazhiv-ljapasa-kremlju-919485.html
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Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Will Likely Stall
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U.S. government does not have every confidence that Ukraine is going to prevail. Here is the actual assessment of U.S. intelligence, according to the Washington Post this morning:
Ukraine’s challenges in massing troops, ammunition and equipment could cause its military to fall “well short” of Kyiv’s original goals for an anticipated counteroffensive aimed at retaking Russian-occupied areas this spring, according to U.S. intelligence assessments contained in a growing leak of classified documents revealing Washington’s misgivings about the state of the war.
Labeled “top secret,” the bleak assessment from early February warns of significant “force generation and sustainment shortfalls,” and the likelihood that such an operation will result in only “modest territorial gains.” It’s a marked departure from the Biden administration’s public statements about the vitality of Ukraine’s military and is likely to embolden critics who feel the United States and NATO should do more to push for a negotiated settlement to the conflict.
The document adds that, “Enduring Ukrainian deficiencies in training and munitions supplies probably will strain progress and exacerbate casualties during the offensive.”
As I said yesterday, this is bad. It is bad that this assessment leaked; it is bad that this assessment of Ukraine’s abilities in the spring offensive are so modest or grim; it is bad that apparently lots of foreign-policy experts have doubts about the administration’s approach but are afraid to say so publicly; and it is bad that Biden’s public assessment of the war in Ukraine is the same rosy-eyed, unrealistic optimism that characterized his assessment of Afghanistan, inflation, migrants crossing the border, and the Chinese spy balloon. The president is always telling us that things are going great and that we have nothing to worry about, and a little later, we learn that the truth is the opposite...
the Egyptian government also explored the option of secretly selling rockets to Russia, according to the leaked documents:
President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi of Egypt, one of America’s closest allies in the Middle East and a major recipient of U.S. aid, recently ordered subordinates to produce up to 40,000 rockets to be covertly shipped to Russia, according to a leaked U.S. intelligence document.
A portion of a top secret document, dated Feb. 17, summarizes purported conversations between Sisi and senior Egyptian military officials and also references plans to supply Russia with artillery rounds and gunpowder. In the document, Sisi instructs the officials to keep the production and shipment of the rockets secret “to avoid problems with the West...”
Last month, this newsletter noted that immediately after the downing of the MQ-9 Reaper drone, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called his Russian counterpart and told him that the “United States will fly and operate wherever international law allows,” including in air space near Ukraine. Then, a week later, the administration revealed that the drones have altered their routes and are staying further away from Ukraine “to avoid being too provocative.”
The leaked documents suggest that the U.S. is now keeping its drones about 50 miles from the Crimean coast:
A map on the document shows a boundary drawn over sections of the Black Sea to mark where surveillance planes may fly. It appears to begin about 12 miles off the coast of Crimea, adhering to international law. The map also includes a second line about 50 miles from the shore labeled “SECDEF Directed Standoff,” indicating that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin may have ordered U.S. pilots to keep aircraft farther from the peninsula.
The administration is not playing it straight with the American public when it comes to Ukraine. An inability to see the situation clearly and communicate the situation without any sugarcoating is a formula for long-term problems.
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Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Will Likely Stall
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
U.S. government does not have every confidence that Ukraine is going to prevail. Here is the actual assessment of U.S. intelligence, according to the Washington Post this morning:
Ukraine’s challenges in massing troops, ammunition and equipment could cause its military to fall “well short” of Kyiv’s original goals for an anticipated counteroffensive aimed at retaking Russian-occupied areas this spring, according to U.S. intelligence assessments contained in a growing leak of classified documents revealing Washington’s misgivings about the state of the war.
Labeled “top secret,” the bleak assessment from early February warns of significant “force generation and sustainment shortfalls,” and the likelihood that such an operation will result in only “modest territorial gains.” It’s a marked departure from the Biden administration’s public statements about the vitality of Ukraine’s military and is likely to embolden critics who feel the United States and NATO should do more to push for a negotiated settlement to the conflict.
The document adds that, “Enduring Ukrainian deficiencies in training and munitions supplies probably will strain progress and exacerbate casualties during the offensive.”
As I said yesterday, this is bad. It is bad that this assessment leaked; it is bad that this assessment of Ukraine’s abilities in the spring offensive are so modest or grim; it is bad that apparently lots of foreign-policy experts have doubts about the administration’s approach but are afraid to say so publicly; and it is bad that Biden’s public assessment of the war in Ukraine is the same rosy-eyed, unrealistic optimism that characterized his assessment of Afghanistan, inflation, migrants crossing the border, and the Chinese spy balloon. The president is always telling us that things are going great and that we have nothing to worry about, and a little later, we learn that the truth is the opposite...
the Egyptian government also explored the option of secretly selling rockets to Russia, according to the leaked documents:
President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi of Egypt, one of America’s closest allies in the Middle East and a major recipient of U.S. aid, recently ordered subordinates to produce up to 40,000 rockets to be covertly shipped to Russia, according to a leaked U.S. intelligence document.
A portion of a top secret document, dated Feb. 17, summarizes purported conversations between Sisi and senior Egyptian military officials and also references plans to supply Russia with artillery rounds and gunpowder. In the document, Sisi instructs the officials to keep the production and shipment of the rockets secret “to avoid problems with the West...”
Last month, this newsletter noted that immediately after the downing of the MQ-9 Reaper drone, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called his Russian counterpart and told him that the “United States will fly and operate wherever international law allows,” including in air space near Ukraine. Then, a week later, the administration revealed that the drones have altered their routes and are staying further away from Ukraine “to avoid being too provocative.”
The leaked documents suggest that the U.S. is now keeping its drones about 50 miles from the Crimean coast:
A map on the document shows a boundary drawn over sections of the Black Sea to mark where surveillance planes may fly. It appears to begin about 12 miles off the coast of Crimea, adhering to international law. The map also includes a second line about 50 miles from the shore labeled “SECDEF Directed Standoff,” indicating that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin may have ordered U.S. pilots to keep aircraft farther from the peninsula.
The administration is not playing it straight with the American public when it comes to Ukraine. An inability to see the situation clearly and communicate the situation without any sugarcoating is a formula for long-term problems.
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
More on the leak:
"U.S. intelligence appears to have penetrated nearly every Russian military body including the General Staff, the Defense Ministry and the GRU military intelligence agency, as well as the private mercenary group Wagner."
ORLY...
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
More on the leak:
"U.S. intelligence appears to have penetrated nearly every Russian military body including the General Staff, the Defense Ministry and the GRU military intelligence agency, as well as the private mercenary group Wagner."
ORLY...
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Russian spy ship doing what it does:
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From today’s issue Moscow Times:
The Kremlin said Thursday it welcomed any attempt to end the Ukrainian conflict, on Moscow's terms, a day after the leaders of China and Ukraine had their first call since the offensive.
"We are ready to welcome anything that can bring forward the end of the conflict in Ukraine and the achievement of Russia's goals," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
In other words, the Kremlin is not interested.
Elbows up!
