The Ukraine war thread
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Are the Russian people beginning to understand?
As War Hits the Home Front, Russia’s Defeat Inches Closer
By many accounts, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is already a colossal failure. The confirmed losses of destroyed and abandoned tanks and other armor alone exceed the entire army of a decent-sized Central or Eastern European country, and the rate of loss doesn’t look likely to be reversed anytime soon. Citing sources close to the Kremlin, Russian independent media has reported 90,000 irrecoverably lost soldiers, including battlefield and hospital deaths plus injuries severe enough to prevent them from ever fighting again. These losses now exceed those incurred during Russia’s wars in Afghanistan and Chechnya, politically devastating conflicts that left deep scars on Russian society that have still not healed today. What’s more, it took Russia 10 years to accumulate its losses in Afghanistan, whereas it has only been fighting in Ukraine for eight months.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “partial mobilization,” which he recently promised will be over in two weeks just before the regular annual military draft begins, has also been a failure on all levels. Russian social media is full of clips of fresh conscripts facing squalor in hastily thrown up tents and cold abandoned barracks without food, uniforms, sanitation, equipment, or commanders, left to fend for themselves or survive on parcels brought by their relatives. As men are grabbed from the streets and sent right to the front with only a cursory training course at best, their relatives are expected to cough up money for basic items that are supposed to be provided by the army, such as first-aid kits or winter clothes.
For hundreds of thousands of Russian families, the war is not only an immediate threat to their livelihoods, as sole breadwinners are thrown into battles without regard for their dependents, but also a massive economic burden. On Telegram, chat groups with hundreds of members are popping up where wives and fiancés exchange tips on where to buy armor and helmets on the cheap while sharing their growing desperation about the chaotic nature of mobilization.
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Putin has declared martial law in the annexed territories and delegated enhanced security measures to regional authorities throughout Russia but in particular, regions bordering Ukraine.
There is a lot of speculation that behind the scenes something is being planned in Kherson region. Given the ongoing evacuation of civilians from Kherson, some believe the Russians may blow the dam on Dneiper River and flood the areas the Ukrainian forces are advancing. Others suggest that the Russians will use the civilians as human shields to enable the foundering Russian forces to evacuate and avoid encirclement. Still others speculate the Russians will deploy chemical or a small tactical nuke in a desperate move to halt the Ukrainian advance.
All this is pure speculation. It’s anyones guess as to what the Kremlin is planning.
@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
All this is pure speculation. It’s anyones guess as to what the Kremlin is planning.
Isn't that the truth.
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To understand Putin, then, requires comprehending the mindset of a predatory intelligence officer. Putin is like a shark who must keep moving to survive. Only in his case, the reason Putin is an object constantly in motion is to outrun his failures, change the narrative in his favor, and keep adversaries at bay. He deals with misfortune by doubling down and redirecting energy into even more sensational initiatives. It is not in his nature to pause, reflect, and thoughtfully adjust to changing circumstances, or be influenced by experts he should respect. Rather, Putin prides himself on the ability to shift on the fly and go it alone, without ever showing weakness, let alone fear. Putin will therefore be inclined to charge ahead with whatever might overshadow his misfortunes and make others forget the burning houses left in his wake. But the more he blusters and threatens, the more we know Putin is struggling, weak, and threatened. A dangerous time, yes, but one that also offers opportunities for the West.
Good SitRep on Putin’s mindset and how to respond to his escalation of the war:
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@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
It lays out the situation pretty clearly. I hope our allies see it as clearly as we do.
NATO already said this is how they'd respond if a tactical nuke were to be dropped: no nukes on NATO's side, but yes, NATO is going to allow for Russian forces in Ukraine to be targeted directly and we're going to attack Russia in the black sea.
Who freaking knows whether or not Putin believes this, or cares.
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@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
It lays out the situation pretty clearly. I hope our allies see it as clearly as we do.
NATO already said this is how they'd respond if a tactical nuke were to be dropped: no nukes on NATO's side, but yes, NATO is going to allow for Russian forces in Ukraine to be targeted directly and we're going to attack Russia in the black sea.
Who freaking knows whether or not Putin believes this, or cares.
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Pentagon maintains Iranian military specialists in Crimea training Russians in drone deployment:
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My bet is that he believes it though I am almost certain he does not in the least, care.
@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
My bet is that he believes it though I am almost certain he does not in the least, care.
So you think he wants nuclear WWIII?
Please love yourself.
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
My bet is that he believes it though I am almost certain he does not in the least, care.
So you think he wants nuclear WWIII?
@Aqua-Letifer said in The Ukraine war thread:
@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
My bet is that he believes it though I am almost certain he does not in the least, care.
So you think he wants nuclear WWIII?
No, he wants to reclaim all lands and territories that he believes are historically and rightfully belonging to Russia. It is, in his mind, an absolute truth.
Moreover he spelled it all out detail in July 2021. No one took the mythology seriously at the time but he meant every word of it. Here, have at it:
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@Aqua-Letifer said in The Ukraine war thread:
@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
My bet is that he believes it though I am almost certain he does not in the least, care.
So you think he wants nuclear WWIII?
No, he wants to reclaim all lands and territories that he believes are historically and rightfully belonging to Russia. It is, in his mind, an absolute truth.
Moreover he spelled it all out detail in July 2021. No one took the mythology seriously at the time but he meant every word of it. Here, have at it:
@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
@Aqua-Letifer said in The Ukraine war thread:
@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
My bet is that he believes it though I am almost certain he does not in the least, care.
So you think he wants nuclear WWIII?
No, he wants to reclaim all lands and territories that he believes are historically and rightfully belonging to Russia. It is, in his mind, an absolute truth.
Moreover he spelled it all out detail in July 2021. No one took the mythology seriously at the time but he meant every word of it. Here, have at it:
It's amazing to read that and then look back at the news footage of the ramp-up to this war. Everyone and their mother was saying they weren't really going to invade.
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
@Aqua-Letifer said in The Ukraine war thread:
@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
My bet is that he believes it though I am almost certain he does not in the least, care.
So you think he wants nuclear WWIII?
No, he wants to reclaim all lands and territories that he believes are historically and rightfully belonging to Russia. It is, in his mind, an absolute truth.
Moreover he spelled it all out detail in July 2021. No one took the mythology seriously at the time but he meant every word of it. Here, have at it:
It's amazing to read that and then look back at the news footage of the ramp-up to this war. Everyone and their mother was saying they weren't really going to invade.
That’s right, virtually no one, not even the experts thought he would invade.
On the other hand Putin’s thesis did spell out to those who read it that he held the West and open democracy in complete contempt. It also laid bare his paranoia wholly warped sense of history. At least that is how I read and understood it at the time. Up to that point I was not only open to some of Putin’s grievances with the West but also the Russian claim to Crimea. His written rant induced me to revisit his actions over the past twenty odd years and during the course of the ensuing months leading up to the invasion, I realized just how much I had been error.
Putin represents a truly malevolent idea and force in the world, there is no dispute about that any longer.
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Don’t know what it means or what gave rise to it but under the circumstances it can’t make things any worse than they are:
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Not sure what that could mean other than seeking US support for peace - peace meaning carving out parts of Ukraine.
My gut feeling is that it had more to do with the current NATO exercises in Europe, Iranian drone specialists in Crimea and recent incidents involving Russian and NATO aircraft in proximity to one another and designated airspace.
Carving up someone else’s country fall within the job descriptions of Heads of State and their respective Foreign Ministers and Sect’y s of State.
