The Ukraine war thread
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The fact that he's still in power after this disaster is telling of how well entrenched he is.
Another factor is how the majority of Russians perceive the reality. While I do not intend to draw a comparison with Stalin, many if not the majority of Russians during the Terror, believed in their hearts that if Stalin knew what was happening in country he would put an immediate end to it and hold the perpetrators accountable. The people were convinced Stalin was being being deceived by the very people he had entrusted to govern the nation. Hence many would write letters and petitions directly to Stalin telling him of the crimes and warning him of how he was being deceived and manipulated.
Fast forward to present and you can see how the likes of Kadyrov and big name media personalities in Russia are laying blame on the military leaders and state bureaucrats but not Putin himself for the unfolding military debacle. Likewise, Ukrainian success is also linked to foreign interference that is determined to breakup the Russian Federation and subjugate the Russian people.
Contrary to all appearances, as a nation Russians are a passive people who are content with being left alone in their respective communities despite having little or no sense of community as it is understood in the West. In the people’s mind Putin still represents stability in a world of chaos. Until that perception changes my bet is that he will remain exactly where he is now, in the Kremlin and at the helm.
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Barbarians at the gate.
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The Sources of Russian Misconduct
A Diplomat Defects From the Kremlin
By Boris Bondarev, a 20-year Russian DiplomatFor more: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/sources-russia-misconduct-boris-bondarev
[Upon learning of Russia's attack on Ukraine:]
“That is the beginning of the end,” I told my wife. We decided I had to quit.
Resigning meant throwing away a twenty-year career as a Russian diplomat and, with it, many of my friendships. But the decision was a long time coming. When I joined the ministry in 2002, it was during a period of relative openness, when we diplomats could work cordially with our counterparts from other countries. Still, it was apparent from my earliest days that Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs was deeply flawed. Even then, it discouraged critical thinking, and over the course of my tenure, it became increasingly belligerent. I stayed on anyway, managing the cognitive dissonance by hoping that I could use whatever power I had to moderate my country’s international behavior. But certain events can make a person accept things they didn’t dare to before.
The invasion of Ukraine made it impossible to deny just how brutal and repressive Russia had become. It was an unspeakable act of cruelty, designed to subjugate a neighbor and erase its ethnic identity. It gave Moscow an excuse to crush any domestic opposition. Now, the government is sending thousands upon thousands of drafted men to go kill Ukrainians. The war shows that Russia is no longer just dictatorial and aggressive; it has become a fascist state.
But for me, one of the invasion’s central lessons had to do with something I had witnessed over the preceding two decades: what happens when a government is slowly warped by its own propaganda. For years, Russian diplomats were made to confront Washington and defend the country’s meddling abroad with lies and non sequiturs. We were taught to embrace bombastic rhetoric and to uncritically parrot to other states what the Kremlin said to us. But eventually, the target audience for this propaganda was not just foreign countries; it was our own leadership. In cables and statements, we were made to tell the Kremlin that we had sold the world on Russian greatness and demolished the West’s arguments. We had to withhold any criticism about the president’s dangerous plans. This performance took place even at the ministry’s highest levels. My colleagues in the Kremlin repeatedly told me that Putin likes his foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, because he is “comfortable” to work with, always saying yes to the president and telling him what he wants to hear. Small wonder, then, that Putin thought he would have no trouble defeating Kyiv.
The war shows that decisions made in echo chambers can backfire.
The war is a stark demonstration of how decisions made in echo chambers can backfire. Putin has failed in his bid to conquer Ukraine, an initiative that he might have understood would be impossible if his government had been designed to give honest assessments. For those of us who worked on military issues, it was plain that the Russian armed forces were not as mighty as the West feared—in part thanks to economic restrictions the West implemented after Russia’s 2014 seizure of Crimea that were more effective than policymakers seemed to realize.The Kremlin’s invasion has strengthened NATO, an entity it was designed to humiliate, and resulted in sanctions strong enough to make Russia’s economy contract. But fascist regimes legitimize themselves more by exercising power than by delivering economic gains, and Putin is so aggressive and detached from reality that a recession is unlikely to stop him. To justify his rule, Putin wants the great victory he promised and believes he can obtain. If he agrees to a cease-fire, it will only be to give Russian troops a rest before continuing to fight. And if he wins in Ukraine, Putin will likely move to attack another post-Soviet state, such as Moldova, where Moscow already props up a breakaway region.
There is, then, only one way to stop Russia’s dictator, and that is to do what U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin suggested in April: weaken the country “to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.” This may seem like a tall order. But Russia’s military has been substantially weakened, and the country has lost many of its best soldiers. With broad support from NATO, Ukraine is capable of eventually beating Russia in the east and south, just as it has done in the north.
If defeated, Putin will face a perilous situation at home. He will have to explain to the elite and the masses why he betrayed their expectations. He will have to tell the families of dead soldiers why they perished for nothing. And thanks to the mounting pressure from sanctions, he will have to do all of this at a time when Russians are even worse off than they are today. He could fail at this task, face widespread backlash, and be shunted aside. He could look for scapegoats and be overthrown by the advisers and deputies he threatens to purge. Either way, should Putin go, Russia will have a chance to truly rebuild—and finally abandon its delusions of grandeur.
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Fiona Hill interview on Putin, Russia and the war in Ukraine:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/10/17/fiona-hill-putin-war-00061894
@Axtremus said in The Ukraine war thread:
Fiona Hill interview on Putin, Russia and the war in Ukraine:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/10/17/fiona-hill-putin-war-00061894
Hill nails it here:
What Putin is trying to do is to get us to talk about the threat of nuclear war instead of what he is doing in Ukraine. He wants the U.S. and Europe to contemplate, as he says, the risks that we faced during the Cuban Missile Crisis or the Euromissile crisis. He wants us to face the prospect of a great superpower war. His solution is to have secret diplomacy, as we did during Cuban Missile Crisis, and have a direct compromise between the United States and Russia.
But there’s no strategic standoff here. This is pure nuclear blackmail.
Hill knows her stuff. Good interview, however I doubt anyone will approach Putin and ask him to step aside if things continue to go bad for Russia in Ukraine.
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Interesting read on Lukashenko's position.
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This doesn't look good. Not sure if it is trustworthy or just speculation. Don't know anything about metro news.
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This doesn't look good. Not sure if it is trustworthy or just speculation. Don't know anything about metro news.
@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
This doesn't look good. Not sure if it is trustworthy or just speculation. Don't know anything about metro news.
Much of this reporting is coming from news outlets in India. Which, I'm not sure what that means.
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@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
This doesn't look good. Not sure if it is trustworthy or just speculation. Don't know anything about metro news.
Much of this reporting is coming from news outlets in India. Which, I'm not sure what that means.
Putin has declared martial law in the annexed territories and delegated enhanced security measures to regional authorities throughout Russia but in particular, regions bordering Ukraine.
There is a lot of speculation that behind the scenes something is being planned in Kherson region. Given the ongoing evacuation of civilians from Kherson, some believe the Russians may blow the dam on Dneiper River and flood the areas the Ukrainian forces are advancing. Others suggest that the Russians will use the civilians as human shields to enable the foundering Russian forces to evacuate and avoid encirclement. Still others speculate the Russians will deploy chemical or a small tactical nuke in a desperate move to halt the Ukrainian advance.
All this is pure speculation. It’s anyones guess as to what the Kremlin is planning.
Elbows up!
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Are the Russian people beginning to understand?
As War Hits the Home Front, Russia’s Defeat Inches Closer
By many accounts, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is already a colossal failure. The confirmed losses of destroyed and abandoned tanks and other armor alone exceed the entire army of a decent-sized Central or Eastern European country, and the rate of loss doesn’t look likely to be reversed anytime soon. Citing sources close to the Kremlin, Russian independent media has reported 90,000 irrecoverably lost soldiers, including battlefield and hospital deaths plus injuries severe enough to prevent them from ever fighting again. These losses now exceed those incurred during Russia’s wars in Afghanistan and Chechnya, politically devastating conflicts that left deep scars on Russian society that have still not healed today. What’s more, it took Russia 10 years to accumulate its losses in Afghanistan, whereas it has only been fighting in Ukraine for eight months.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “partial mobilization,” which he recently promised will be over in two weeks just before the regular annual military draft begins, has also been a failure on all levels. Russian social media is full of clips of fresh conscripts facing squalor in hastily thrown up tents and cold abandoned barracks without food, uniforms, sanitation, equipment, or commanders, left to fend for themselves or survive on parcels brought by their relatives. As men are grabbed from the streets and sent right to the front with only a cursory training course at best, their relatives are expected to cough up money for basic items that are supposed to be provided by the army, such as first-aid kits or winter clothes.
For hundreds of thousands of Russian families, the war is not only an immediate threat to their livelihoods, as sole breadwinners are thrown into battles without regard for their dependents, but also a massive economic burden. On Telegram, chat groups with hundreds of members are popping up where wives and fiancés exchange tips on where to buy armor and helmets on the cheap while sharing their growing desperation about the chaotic nature of mobilization.
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Putin has declared martial law in the annexed territories and delegated enhanced security measures to regional authorities throughout Russia but in particular, regions bordering Ukraine.
There is a lot of speculation that behind the scenes something is being planned in Kherson region. Given the ongoing evacuation of civilians from Kherson, some believe the Russians may blow the dam on Dneiper River and flood the areas the Ukrainian forces are advancing. Others suggest that the Russians will use the civilians as human shields to enable the foundering Russian forces to evacuate and avoid encirclement. Still others speculate the Russians will deploy chemical or a small tactical nuke in a desperate move to halt the Ukrainian advance.
All this is pure speculation. It’s anyones guess as to what the Kremlin is planning.
@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
All this is pure speculation. It’s anyones guess as to what the Kremlin is planning.
Isn't that the truth.
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To understand Putin, then, requires comprehending the mindset of a predatory intelligence officer. Putin is like a shark who must keep moving to survive. Only in his case, the reason Putin is an object constantly in motion is to outrun his failures, change the narrative in his favor, and keep adversaries at bay. He deals with misfortune by doubling down and redirecting energy into even more sensational initiatives. It is not in his nature to pause, reflect, and thoughtfully adjust to changing circumstances, or be influenced by experts he should respect. Rather, Putin prides himself on the ability to shift on the fly and go it alone, without ever showing weakness, let alone fear. Putin will therefore be inclined to charge ahead with whatever might overshadow his misfortunes and make others forget the burning houses left in his wake. But the more he blusters and threatens, the more we know Putin is struggling, weak, and threatened. A dangerous time, yes, but one that also offers opportunities for the West.
Good SitRep on Putin’s mindset and how to respond to his escalation of the war:
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@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
It lays out the situation pretty clearly. I hope our allies see it as clearly as we do.
NATO already said this is how they'd respond if a tactical nuke were to be dropped: no nukes on NATO's side, but yes, NATO is going to allow for Russian forces in Ukraine to be targeted directly and we're going to attack Russia in the black sea.
Who freaking knows whether or not Putin believes this, or cares.
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@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
It lays out the situation pretty clearly. I hope our allies see it as clearly as we do.
NATO already said this is how they'd respond if a tactical nuke were to be dropped: no nukes on NATO's side, but yes, NATO is going to allow for Russian forces in Ukraine to be targeted directly and we're going to attack Russia in the black sea.
Who freaking knows whether or not Putin believes this, or cares.
