The Ukraine war thread
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Duds:
Russian missiles in Ukraine have failure rate of up to 60%, U.S. officials say
Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.
Since President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, Russia has failed to achieve basic objectives such as neutralizing Ukraine's air force despite a vastly larger armed forces.
The U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information, did not provide evidence to support the assessment and did not disclose what precisely was driving high Russian missile failure rates.
Reuters was unable to independently verify the figures.
Though Reuters could not determine what a standard failure rate would be for air-launched cruise missiles, two experts interviewed by Reuters said any failure rate of 20% and above would be considered high.
U.S. defense officials told reporters this week that the Pentagon assesses that Russia has launched more than 1,100 missiles of all kinds since the war began. The U.S. officials have so far not said how many of those hit their targets and how many failed to do so.
Citing U.S. intelligence, three U.S. officials said the United States estimated that Russia's failure rate varied day-to-day, depended on the type of missile being launched, and could sometimes exceed 50%. Two of them said it reached as high as 60%.
One of the officials said the intelligence showed that Russia's air-launched cruise missiles had a failure rate in the 20% to 60% range, depending on the day.
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That ship that was blown up?
It appears on Russian TV "News" two days earlier:
Link to videoBest comment: "This ship is so sophisticated. Allegedly it can also become a submarine."
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Multiply both those number by 4 and you’ll have a fairly accurate number. Approaching the same numbers the Pentagon and Brits are estimating.
@Renauda I saw a story (I think it was on Forbes) that the Ukrainians have more, yes MORE, tanks now than they did at the beginning of the "special mission." Despite their losses, they have captured more abandoned tanks than they have lost. I think Forbes said they are up 49 tanks overall.
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The oligarchs are going for redemption. Also to get out of the sanctions.
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Unless someone sends me a specific link I avoid US media sources. Like you, I too follow the BBC reports as well several European sources in English. Our own CBC is not too bad although it is more or less BBC lite. For print media the National Post and Globe and Mail from time to time also provide some fairly decent analysis depending on the topic.
There are however some excellent US sources but they are not part of the slick media outlets. Rather they are found with various think tanks and specialised research institutes and schools that operate out of the country’s universities.
@Renauda There are however some excellent US sources but they are not part of the slick media outlets. Rather they are found with various think tanks and specialised research institutes and schools that operate out of the country’s universities.
^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^https://thebestschools.org/magazine/most-influential-think-tanks/
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@Catseye3 said in The Ukraine war thread:
Phibes, does your Russian friend have an opinion about all this?
He has an opinion about everything, so yes. He's been wearing the Ukrainian flag for the last month.
He's very anti-Putin, and says that he's essentially a gangster that has taken over the country.
FWIW, he doesn't think that it's likely that Putin will get stabbed in the back by his own people as he's completely surrounded himself with yes-men.
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Well...
https://www.ft.com/content/7f14efe8-2f4c-47a2-aa6b-9a755a39b626
Russia is no longer requesting Ukraine be “denazified” and is prepared to let Kyiv join the EU if it remains militarily non-aligned as part of ongoing ceasefire negotiations, according to four people briefed on the discussions.
Moscow and Kyiv are discussing a pause in hostilities as part of a possible deal that would involve Ukraine abandoning its drive for Nato membership in exchange for security guarantees and the prospect to join the EU, the people said under the condition of anonymity because the matter is not yet finalised.
The draft ceasefire document does not contain any discussion of three of Russia’s initial core demands — “denazification”, “demilitarisation”, and legal protection for the Russian language in Ukraine — the people added.
Envoys from both sides are to meet in Istanbul on Tuesday in a fourth round of peace talks designed to end president Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The concessions on Russia’s side come as its month-long ground offensive has largely stalled as a result of fiercer Ukrainian resistance than expected and Russian operational deficiencies.
But Ukraine and its western backers remain sceptical of Putin’s intentions, worrying that the Russian president could be using the talks as a smokescreen to replenish his exhausted forces and plan a fresh offensive.
"Security guarantees."
LOLGF
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