Inflation
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@taiwan_girl said in Inflation:
In the last 60 years, the US share of the world economy has almost gone down by half - from a little over 40% to almost 20% now.
I'd guess that it was a pretty different world in 1962 than it is today.
I get your point, and I don't even disagree. But, I'd say that the post-war era, which probably extends at least 20 year, was a remarkably different world than we have today.
Oh, and China is an asshole, by the way.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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@George-K I agree with you.
But, there seems to be a "perception" that if the US economy is good, it is strictly due to the actions of the US president AT THAT MOMENT.
If the US economy is bad, it is strictly due to the actions of the US president AT THAT MOMENT.
(Of course, some of the above depends on if your side president is in power).
Example: 2020 was one of the worst economy years on record. President Trumps fault? Of course not. Many many things outside his control. Situation would probably have been the same if Sec. Clinton had won the president.
2022 Inflation. President Bidens fault? Mostly not. (Thailand is experiencing worst inflation in 17 years for example). In big picture, situation would have been similar if President Trump won election.
(I AM NOT SAYING THE US PRESIDENT HAS NO IMPACT ON ECONOMY, BUT I BELIEVE IT IS OVER SAID)
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@taiwan_girl said in Inflation:
Example: 2020 was one of the worst economy years on record. President Trumps fault? Of course not. Many many things outside his control. Situation would probably have been the same if Sec. Clinton had won the president.
Trump wasn't president until January 2021.
2022 Inflation. President Bidens fault? Mostly not. (Thailand is experiencing worst inflation in 17 years for example). In big picture, situation would have been similar if President Trump won election.
US inflation is highest in 40 years.
(I AM NOT SAYING THE US PRESIDENT HAS NO IMPACT ON ECONOMY, BUT I BELIEVE IT IS OVER SAID)
Yes, it's overstated, and as @jon-nyc said, there's a correlation between the infusion of funds and inflation, with a delay of months/years.
But, perception is what determines elections, and since this has happened on Biden's watch, this is what voters will probably remember.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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The basic underpinning of the US and global economy is consumer confidence in spending, and yes, the US President has an enormous impact on that particular keystone.
Me/rry/Christmas
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@LuFins-Dad said in Inflation:
The basic underpinning of the US and global economy is consumer confidence in spending, and yes, the US President has an enormous impact on that particular keystone.
Now, just you waitaminute...
Are you saying that there's not enough confidence in the president?
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I agree. I have said it a couple of times that the president is like a cheerleader.
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@taiwan_girl said in Inflation:
I agree. I have said it a couple of times that the president is like a cheerleader.
I have to admire your tenacity at hanging on to long disproven views, especially in the face of the last 12 mo tbs of example after example that utterly destroys your opinion.
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@Larry Then, I will go back to a question I asked a while ago, though I dont believe you answered?
What are the five top data points that YOU use to measure the US economy? (for example, growing rate, unemployment, inflation, stock market grow, etc etc)
Let me know, and I will do a comparison of these data points when there is a Republican president vs. a Democratic president and see if there is a major difference.
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DON’T let them eat cake.
- RFK Jr -
@taiwan_girl said in Inflation:
@Larry Then, I will go back to a question I asked a while ago, though I dont believe you answered?
What are the five top data points that YOU use to measure the US economy? (for example, growing rate, unemployment, inflation, stock market grow, etc etc)
Let me know, and I will do a comparison of these data points when there is a Republican president vs. a Democratic president and see if there is a major difference.
F you have to have data points in order to figure out who shot John, he no wonder you think like you do.
Try this - quit relying on data points and start looking at reality.
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@taiwan_girl said in Inflation:
@Larry What is the reality?
That a president is NOT like a cheerleader. His decisions and policy moves have deep, long lasting effect both domestically and internationally. That your view that it doesnt matter who is in office because the outcome is the same either way is utterly wrong. You dont need data points to see that. Just pull up to a gas pump. Or any number of other things that are going on around you that utterly destroys your view. Anyone can make data points say whatever they want them to say. You can't however, escape reality. And the real world shows us in hundreds of ways every single day that your view is incorrect.
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@Larry My view is that the President gets too much blame and too much credit for the economy. FULL STOP.
I am not saying that who is in office does not matter. I think in many things, like foreign relations, it certainly does.
My impression is that you believe that the economy does much better under a Republican president. You may be right. All I am asking is what information you use to determine that.
GDP grow?
Unemployment %?
Gas Prices?
People confidence?
Stock market grow?
10 year treasury rate?
Private sector payroll?
Inflation?
etc(PS. I think that President Biden is overall doing a terrible job, but that does not change my belief above)
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@taiwan_girl said in Inflation:
@Larry My view is that the President gets too much blame and too much credit for the economy. FULL STOP.
I'm fully aware of what your view is.
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Presidents are given 94.6% of the credit they deserve for the economy. That is a full 5.4% underestimation of the credit they should be given. I don’t know about you, but I simply refuse to give less credit than is duly owed. When I see someone giving insufficient credit, I take it upon myself to give an offsetting increase in credit. To do otherwise is simply immoral.
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@taiwan_girl said in Inflation:
@Larry My view is that the President gets too much blame and too much credit for the economy. FULL STOP.
I'm fully aware of what your view is.
But I am not aware of your view, other than "Democrats bad, Republicans good"
I use the below to think how the economy is doing
GDP grow
Unemployment %
People confidence
Stock market grow
10 year treasury rate
Private sector payroll
InflationWhat do you use?
If you dont want to answer, that is fine. I can accept that, but it is hard, in my opinion, to have a discussion about the "performance" of the economy without some sort of data.
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@taiwan_girl said in Inflation:
@taiwan_girl said in Inflation:
@Larry My view is that the President gets too much blame and too much credit for the economy. FULL STOP.
I'm fully aware of what your view is.
But I am not aware of your view, other than "Democrats bad, Republicans good"
I use the below to think how the economy is doing
GDP grow
Unemployment %
People confidence
Stock market grow
10 year treasury rate
Private sector payroll
InflationWhat do you use?
If you dont want to answer, that is fine. I can accept that, but it is hard, in my opinion, to have a discussion about the "performance" of the economy without some sort of data.
Larry is saying you live in a world of data. Data can be manipulated. Figures lie and liars figure, so to speak.
Folks that actually live out there in the real world, who are currently eating chicken instead of beef roast, trying to keep old jalopies running because the price of new and used cars has gone through the roof, shaking their head at $90,000 pickups, let alone contemplating whether to fill their car up with gas or eat, and wondering how in the hell they'll ever afford a home, can certainly fill you in on the finer points of inflation and who caused it.
And you know, all your neat figures don't mean a damn to those people.
Always remember, Operation Valkyrie was an act of sedition.
Warning: I post things that interest me. Read and comment at your own discretion. -
Jolly, in your post, you use "data", which seems to be inflation.
I think it was you, (or maybe Jon or George) who used the term "tribe" to describe politics in the US right now. I think it is an accurate term and a good one.
There is a tendency now to use politics when looking at everything.
By looking at some of the data, I am trying to remove politics from it.
I realize that it cannot be 100% done, but it is a start.
(again, I am not specifically talking about the current times. I agree that President Biden is not doing a very good job. I am thinking about historic data and the tendency to say that because the President is from your "tribe", the economy does great!! When he is from the other "tribe", the economy is terrible. I dont think that is true and I think that "data" will prove me right. 555)
