The only thing surprising about this….

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in The only thing surprising about this….:

@Jolly said in The only thing surprising about this….:

I do think he has caused it with his policies, energy chief among them.

Most of them haven’t gone into effect (federal drilling) or wouldn’t have been contributing to production yet (keystone). I can’t offhand name any that would have had an actual material impact on supplies.

Can you?

You may know finance better than I, but much of any economy is built on public perception and politics. If people are confident, they act differently, they plan differently and they spend differently.

Mr. Biden rapidly lost the confidence of the majority of the American people, particularly the small business people. Without Main Street, there is no Wall Street.

[jon-nyc]

That’s the equivalent of saying Biden’s mean tweets caused inflation.

And the quadrupling of the money supply was just incidental?

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in The only thing surprising about this….:

That’s the equivalent of saying Biden’s mean tweets caused inflation.

And the quadrupling of the money supply was just incidental?

No. But no financial trend is an island. It can be helped or harried, depending on perception and politics.

[George K]

@jon-nyc said in The only thing surprising about this….:

That’s the equivalent of saying Biden’s mean tweets caused inflation.

And the quadrupling of the money supply was just incidental?

Of course not.

But he said what he said, "POTUS is responsible."

So... who's been POTUS for the last 14 months?

I'm not saying it's accurate or true, just pointing out rhetoric campaigning vs reality. This is what people will remember, with, of course, ads from the opposition.

[jon-nyc]

He said “the man caused” the inflation with his policies. And that it was *unarguably” the case.

[Jolly]

You can argue with a fencepost if you wish.

I think the vast majority if the country blames Biden. If you wish to channel your inner Ax around the 20% Far Left deniers, be my guest.

[taiwan_girl]

I am going to step in with my dead horse! 555

The president gets too much credit for the economy when it is going good and too much blame for the economy when it is going bad.

As @Doctor-Phibes said, compare what is happening around the world (inflation, etc) and compare to the US.

As I mentioned in another thread, Thailand experienced its highest inflation in February (pre Ukraine War) since 2008. Psst - people here are not blaming it on President Biden. To many world factors at work.

[Jolly]

You know most Americans don't give a damn about inflation anywhere else.

[Klaus]

@jon-nyc said in The only thing surprising about this….:

Crypto sure has.

Maybe I was particularly stupid in my selection of crypto currencies, but my crypto portfolio is down 30% or so.

[Klaus]

@Jolly said in The only thing surprising about this….:

You know most Americans don't give a damn about inflation anywhere else.

You don't need to give a damn, but not paying attention to what happens elsewhere is just stupid.

As a general rule of thumb: If X happens everywhere in the world, whether X is good or bad, it isn't primarily caused by something the POTUS did. If X happens much more or much less in the US than everywhere else, then you can reasonably argue about whether POTUS is responsible for it.

[89th]

@Mik said in The only thing surprising about this….:

Inflation was coming regardless, if it was not already there.

Yup, it was a snowball already rolling down hill when Biden took office. He hasn't helped slow it down, but it also didn't start it.

[jon-nyc]

Funny that M1 explosion started around April 2020. Inflation got really pronounced in September 2021.

Back in 1960, Milton Friedman (“inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”) studied a few dozen cycles in the US and found a 16 month lag on average between monetary shocks and inflation. But then Biden probably had him write that.

[jon-nyc]

@Jolly said in The only thing surprising about this….:

You can argue with a fencepost if you wish.

Let’s face it, I am. Your conclusion is emotionally driven, not based on data or reasoning. So attempts to dislodge it through data and reasoning are of course going to be fruitless.

[Doctor Phibes]

@Jolly said in The only thing surprising about this….:

You know most Americans don't give a damn about inflation anywhere else.

That isn't really the point.

A number of people seem to struggle to tell the difference between people thinking that inflation is Biden's fault, and it actually being his fault. These same people almost certainly say that perception is reality, but that doesn't mean it's true.

Let's be honest, all you really care about is that the Democrats lose the next election, which I'm sure they will. But then they'll win the next one or the one after that, so it's probably not worth getting too over-excited.

[Jolly]

@Klaus said in The only thing surprising about this….:

@Jolly said in The only thing surprising about this….:

You know most Americans don't give a damn about inflation anywhere else.

You don't need to give a damn, but not paying attention to what happens elsewhere is just stupid.

As a general rule of thumb: If X happens everywhere in the world, whether X is good or bad, it isn't primarily caused by something the POTUS did. If X happens much more or much less in the US than everywhere else, then you can reasonably argue about whether POTUS is responsible for it.

I look at it, especially in countries that trade quite a bit with the U.S. But I stand by the statement. Most Americans are not concerned with what inflation is in other countries, or a host of other issues.

I also suspect that many people around the world are not concerned about American inflation or American issues.

[Klaus]

@Jolly said in The only thing surprising about this….:

@Klaus said in The only thing surprising about this….:

@Jolly said in The only thing surprising about this….:

You know most Americans don't give a damn about inflation anywhere else.

You don't need to give a damn, but not paying attention to what happens elsewhere is just stupid.

As a general rule of thumb: If X happens everywhere in the world, whether X is good or bad, it isn't primarily caused by something the POTUS did. If X happens much more or much less in the US than everywhere else, then you can reasonably argue about whether POTUS is responsible for it.

I look at it, especially in countries that trade quite a bit with the U.S. But I stand by the statement. Most Americans are not concerned with what inflation is in other countries, or a hist of other issues.

I also suspect that many people around the world are not concerned about American inflation or American issues.

I agree that Americans are, on average, rather insular in their perception of the world, but there's a huge difference between "not giving a damn" and "being ignorant about".

[LuFins Dad]

@Klaus said in The only thing surprising about this….:

@jon-nyc said in The only thing surprising about this….:

Crypto sure has.

Maybe I was particularly stupid in my selection of crypto currencies, but my crypto portfolio is down 30% or so.

I think Jon was referring to in total… Compare today’s prices with 19 and you are still way up.

[Jolly]

@Doctor-Phibes said in The only thing surprising about this….:

@Jolly said in The only thing surprising about this….:

You know most Americans don't give a damn about inflation anywhere else.

That isn't really the point.

A number of people seem to struggle to tell the difference between people thinking that inflation is Biden's fault, and it actually being his fault. These same people almost certainly say that perception is reality, but that doesn't mean it's true.

Let's be honest, all you really care about is that the Democrats lose the next election, which I'm sure they will. But then they'll win the next one or the one after that, so it's probably not worth getting too over-excited.

I don't think people struggle with pinning inflation on Biden. I think that almost 70% of the country is already there, no matter how much Peppermint Patti claims it's all Putin's fault.

Politics is the power to effect change. In politics, perception is reality. It may be messy or not analytically correct by the actual numbers, but it is immutable truth.

Do I wish that the Dems get a thumpin'? Yes sir, I do. Primarily because of the courts. Starting in the last century, that's where the power really resides and I think that power should not be overused. I think we function best as a country, when a stricter interpretation of our Constitution is used by those on the bench. I also do not care for a lot of the destructive silliness being pushed by the Dems nowadays. I suspect many Dems don't, either.

So would I like to see a sweep and one party rule. Sure, for about two years, if they do it right. After that, I'm content with a Dem House, a GOP Senate and a Republican in the Whitehouse. Seems like that gives us just the right amount of gridlock and a Republican President to set the agenda.