17,000 ATGMs in a week?

[Klaus]

I find it rather difficult to assess the military situation. The things one reads are quite contradictory.

Does the Ukraine have a real chance of defeating the Russians?

[George K]

@Klaus said in 17,000 ATGMs in a week?:

Does the Ukraine have a real chance of defeating the Russians?

In the long run, probably not. However, in the short term, it looks like they are holding their own, and the US DoD has said that 95% of the military Russia positioned is now in-country. I'm surprised that it's taken this long - perhaps "Potemkin Army," as referenced in the twitter thread @jon-nyc linked to is accurate.

The other question, as to outcome, is not one of military might, but how much pain is Russia going to endure because of sanctions, etc. I wonder how much of it has hit the average citizen so far. Your credit cards being turned off is a major inconvenience, but it's an inconvenience. When other shit starts happening, like you can't get gas or food, or have the cash to pay for either, it'll become a big deal.

[Mik]

Seems unwise to broadcast how this is done.

[89th]

Yes, the press has the right to report facts and promote transparency, but there is a logical line to be aware of as not to provide additional details to the enemy that they don't already know.

@Klaus No, Ukraine would not ultimately beat the Russians, but as @George-K said, if it can be stalled enough, the benefit of "taking Ukraine" may not be worth the cost to Putin. Who knows.

Biden is in a tough spot. Sure, the US (or other countries) could impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, which would make it even easier to let the Russian convoys stall to death or even be counter attacked. Heck, the US could essentially stop the Russian invasion completely tomorrow, but we know how that changes the game. On the flip side, Biden has to ask himself...is the US ok if Ukraine is gone tomorrow? Because the longer countries wait to join Ukraine's fight, the harder it will be to undo the Russian advance.

[Jolly]

@Klaus said in 17,000 ATGMs in a week?:

I find it rather difficult to assess the military situation. The things one reads are quite contradictory.

Does the Ukraine have a real chance of defeating the Russians?

Yes.

In the long run, not the short run.

Think Vietnam.

[Klaus]

@George-K said in 17,000 ATGMs in a week?:

@Klaus said in 17,000 ATGMs in a week?:

Does the Ukraine have a real chance of defeating the Russians?

In the long run, probably not.

@Jolly said in 17,000 ATGMs in a week?:

@Klaus said in 17,000 ATGMs in a week?:

Does the Ukraine have a real chance of defeating the Russians?

In the long run, not the short run.

@Klaus said in 17,000 ATGMs in a week?:

The things one reads are quite contradictory.

[Jolly]

Proxy war.

[LuFins Dad]

At this point, it's only going to get bloodier for the Russians. 95% of their troops are in-country and engaged. The shock and awe part of the campaign has passed and Ukraine is still standing. Their air defenses are still up, and they can now start to predict and plan for Russian troop movements. The longer this stretches on, the worse it gets for the Russians unless they choose to start crossing some lines. That's what scares me, when they realize they won't win this conventionally.

[Doctor Phibes]

I don't think this is about military might, but about whether the rest of the world is willing to keep on isolating Russia, or whether they'll cave if things get more difficult.

[Copper]

@Doctor-Phibes said in 17,000 ATGMs in a week?:

Irest of the world is willing to keep on isolating Russia, or whether they'll cave if things get more difficult.

What is more important a the people of Ukraine or the price of my gasoline?

That's an easy question.