Inflation or Crash?
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This is a tough question to answer.
There's a few huge explanations that could factor into this : 1) huge injections of money from the fed 2) Supply and demand out of whack 3) changing consumer preferences on %income to spend on housing
It's probably a combination of all 3 - and past indicators are probably not quite instructive for what exactly is going to happen.
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I've just got a bad gut feeling, that within 24 months we're getting some major bad news...
“Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”
Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton
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You're ignoring one huge change to the housing market. Millenials have finally decided to start buying instead of renting and have entered the market en masse... Unless that changes, I don't see a crash.
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The chart they linked to is interesting. I'd imagine we'll see a flattening a bit, but don't see any bubbles popping since the underlying foundation is supply, demand, and low rates...and not the mortgage approval recklessness we saw banks do 15 years ago. With rates slowly increasing, demand will slow a bit, and supply may also start to slow down as a result. In other words, a somewhat organic cooling off... Although it does feel like the Fed has only a single arrow in their arsenal (the interest rate) and that they have used it for far too long to artificially keep any recessions at bay.
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And if we have a recession and a market correction, can all these new buyers pay for their homes?
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And if we have a recession and a market correction, can all these new buyers pay for their homes?
@jolly said in Inflation or Crash?:
And if we have a recession and a market correction, can all these new buyers pay for their homes?
No idea, presuming they don't have ARMs it shouldn't have any impact. Heck, there are plenty of job openings if they need additional income.
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In a recession, jobs can be hard to come by.
Maybe it's just perspective, but I remember stagflation well. I'm hoping we only have transient inflation and a mild recession.
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In a recession, jobs can be hard to come by.
Maybe it's just perspective, but I remember stagflation well. I'm hoping we only have transient inflation and a mild recession.
@jolly said in Inflation or Crash?:
I'm hoping we only have transient inflation ...
