Have we peaked?

LuFins Dad

I think we likely did last week, but the lack of testing means we will not really know for a while.

jon-nyc

We peaked here for sure, but we got the Omicron wave earlier than most if not all of the country.

I pay attention to NC because I fly there in 9 hours or so. They still are peaking it seems.

LuFins Dad

We peaked here for sure, but we got the Omicron wave earlier than most if not all of the country.

I pay attention to NC because I fly there in 9 hours or so. They still are peaking it seems.

That’s a part that’s also making it more complicated to calculate “peaks” in the US. While NY, DC, Chicago, etc… have peaked, other areas are just getting started.

89th

What's encouraging is almost exactly a year ago we saw a 7-day moving average of about 3,500 deaths per day, from 500 cases (per 100k) per day. Now, we have 3x as many cases per day which would translate to 3x as many deaths (10,500) yet we see about 1/10th of that death rate each day.

89th

So I just downloaded the data to see the mortality rate as compared to the cases reported each day. This is a 30-day moving average but it's cool to see the mortality rate continue to push below 0.2% and even lower recently (thanks to the large denominator of cases reported lately, too).

jon-nyc

89 - yea that’s awesome. Part of me had always - I mean from the beginning- thought of Omicron as good news.

LuFin - yes there’s a sense in which the idea of “the US peaked” is not useful. If Tip O’Neil were around he might say “all epidemiology is local”.

George K · "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

@jon-nyc said in Have we peaked?:

If Tip O’Neil were around he might say “all epidemiology is local”.

In the Midwest, the worst is yet to come.

Some East Coast states may see new omicron cases peak this week, but the Midwest is still facing the thick of a surge, former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, MD, said Jan. 9 on CBS' "Face the Nation."

Data from New York City and Washington, D.C., already suggest the omicron surge is slowing, according to Dr. Gottlieb, who is a current member of Pfizer's board. Maryland, Florida, Delaware and Rhode Island will show similar trends this week, he predicted.

"The risk right now is to the Midwest, where you have rising infection, where they aren't in the thick of their omicron wave yet," Dr. Gottlieb said. These states already had high hospitalization rates driven by delta infections at the start of the omicron surge.

"Length of stay is down substantially … so that's allowing hospitals to turn over beds," he said. "But the sheer velocity of the spread right now and the number of hospitalizations is pressing them."

Four more forecasts to know this week:

The nation's "viral blizzard of COVID" will last until late January or early February, according to Michael Osterholm, PhD, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis.

"We've just got to get through the next three or four weeks. I think things will be much better at the end of that," he told Sahan Journal Jan. 7.

Ensemble forecasts the CDC published Jan. 5 predict that daily COVID-19 hospital admissions will increase over the next four weeks, with 24,700 to 53,700 new confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions likely reported on Jan. 28. The current seven-day hospitalization average for Dec. 28 to Jan. 4 is 16,458, a 60.2 percent increase from the previous week's average, according to the CDC.

While federal health officials say it's too early to predict omicron's death toll, data from three cities hit early by omicron — New York City, Boston and Chicago — show deaths have spiked but are below levels seen during last winter's surge, according to The New York Times.

CDC forecasting predicts COVID-19 deaths will increase nationwide over the next month, with 19,700 to 30,500 new deaths likely reported in the week ending Jan. 29. Current forecasts should be interpreted with caution, the CDC said, as they may not fully account for omicron's rapid spread or changes in reporting during the holidays.

LuFins Dad

I think the testing disaster is throwing everybody’s numbers off. I think we are 7-10 days further along the wave than people realize.

Doctor Phibes

@lufins-dad said in Have we peaked?:

I think the testing disaster is throwing everybody’s numbers off. I think we are 7-10 days further along the wave than people realize.

It's clear the numbers must be very inaccurate.

My own very minor situation a couple of weeks ago led me to realise that getting tested in a timely fashion is basically impossible.

kluurs

@doctor-phibes said in Have we peaked?:

@lufins-dad said in Have we peaked?:

I think the testing disaster is throwing everybody’s numbers off. I think we are 7-10 days further along the wave than people realize.

My own very minor situation a couple of weeks ago led me to realise that getting tested in a timely fashion is basically impossible.

Yeah, back when I was just starting to experience symptoms, I got tested - and 8 days later I got test results. Not helpful.

Doctor Phibes

@kluurs said in Have we peaked?:

@doctor-phibes said in Have we peaked?:

@lufins-dad said in Have we peaked?:

I think the testing disaster is throwing everybody’s numbers off. I think we are 7-10 days further along the wave than people realize.

My own very minor situation a couple of weeks ago led me to realise that getting tested in a timely fashion is basically impossible.

Yeah, back when I was just starting to experience symptoms, I got tested - and 8 days later I got test results. Not helpful.

The other thing I've had is completely anecdotal information about severity.

At our management meeting this morning, two people commented that they have friends who have died from Covid in the last couple of weeks, both of whom were relatively healthy.

LuFins Dad

@doctor-phibes said in Have we peaked?:

@kluurs said in Have we peaked?:

@doctor-phibes said in Have we peaked?:

@lufins-dad said in Have we peaked?:

I think the testing disaster is throwing everybody’s numbers off. I think we are 7-10 days further along the wave than people realize.

My own very minor situation a couple of weeks ago led me to realise that getting tested in a timely fashion is basically impossible.

Yeah, back when I was just starting to experience symptoms, I got tested - and 8 days later I got test results. Not helpful.

The other thing I've had is completely anecdotal information about severity.

At our management meeting this morning, two people commented that they have friends who have died from Covid in the last couple of weeks, both of whom were relatively healthy.