So, how soon before Kabul falls?
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I don't even come close to pretending what the solution is.
I don't even come close to pretending that there is a solution.
However, the messaging is pretty lousy. Apparently, yesterday, POTUS said, "Not my problem."
Well, Mr. President, it is your problem. You might (rightly) complain that you inherited it. But...that's part of the job, inheriting the problems of your predecessor, and his predecessor,, and his predecessor.
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That was his message yesterday, and his message today is sending 3000 troops to help expedite the evacuation. This is setting up to be a Hollywood-style hostage or evacuation crisis similar to Vietnam or Iran, and I think they are trying to get ahead of it.
I saw the US is also asking the Taliban not to attack the embassy in exchange for cooperation, it almost read like an onion article!
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@george-k said in So, how soon before Kabul falls?:
I don't even come close to pretending what the solution is.
I don't even come close to pretending that there is a solution.
However, the messaging is pretty lousy. Apparently, yesterday, POTUS said, "Not my problem."
Well, Mr. President, it is your problem. You might (rightly) complain that you inherited it. But...that's part of the job, inheriting the problems of your predecessor, and his predecessor,, and his predecessor.
Agree to all. It would have been Trump’s problem if he were President.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/us/politics/taliban-afghanistan-us-embassy.html
U.S. Asks Taliban to Spare Its Embassy in Coming Fight for Kabul
The demand seeks to stave off an evacuation of the embassy by dangling aid to future Afghan governments — even one that includes the Taliban.
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@89th said in So, how soon before Kabul falls?:
I’d say by Thanksgiving, but probably by Halloween.
3-4 weeks. Wonder if they'll let us chopper people off of the embassy roof?
Always remember, Operation Valkyrie was an act of sedition.
Warning: I post things that interest me. Read and comment at your own discretion. -
@jolly said in So, how soon before Kabul falls?:
@89th said in So, how soon before Kabul falls?:
I’d say by Thanksgiving, but probably by Halloween.
3-4 weeks. Wonder if they'll let us chopper people off of the embassy roof?
You were closer than I was. The videos from the airport are insane. People literally clinging onto a massive military transport jet as it taxis to take off.
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@improviso said in So, how soon before Kabul falls?:
@loki said in So, how soon before Kabul falls?:
It would have been Trump’s problem if he were President.
Wrong.
This would not have played out the way it did if Trump was President. I know it and you know it. You just can't admit it.
I have no partisan dog in this hunt. Would Trump have done it in a better way? Well it’s tough to see a scenario where we were more caught off guard but please share with me what a great withdrawal looks like and what would be really different?
Trump in fact started the cascade, perhaps it’s likely Biden would have given the chance.
Biden gets the blame for sure but don’t kid yourself that Trump would have been the difference.
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Trump was very clear that he didn't want US troops serving overseas. Whether he'd have got out now is less clear.
I must admit I was surprised that Biden did this so quickly - I wonder if he jumped in so fast to avoid having to face a lot of opposition from the Pentagon.
I don't know if there's a viable solution, but this doesn't look like one.
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@doctor-phibes said in So, how soon before Kabul falls?:
I don't know if there's a viable solution, but this doesn't look like one.
In retrospect, the only viable option would have been a surge of military support to ensure an orderly evacuation, especially for the translators and others who were promised visas and never got them now. Which is a travesty.
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The apparent lack of planning looks really bad. It's turning into a rout.
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Presumably, the US military 'planned' this - or did Biden bring in special folks?
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@89th said in So, how soon before Kabul falls?:
Biden’s July 8th comments will haunt him on this issue forever. He said things like “zero percent chance we will chopper away people from the embassy like saigon” and “the taliban will not take control of the country”.
I suspect "zero percent chance" will be the new "read my lips" for the next couple of decades.
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Let's hope so.
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@doctor-phibes said in So, how soon before Kabul falls?:
The apparent lack of planning looks really bad. It's turning into a rout.
If you were Afghan military would you put up a fight when even Biden was saying 6 months before the fall? I mean what are your and your families odds of surviving if you pick giving up now vs later?
Somewhere there could be a silver lining for a quick end. I mean for 6 month delay how many more refugees would we have taken? And would it have slowed refugee flow to Iran in a material way? And what additional would it have cost us to try and hold our assets and the Afghani towns?
