The New Coffee Room

I have a bad feeling about Monday as well.

@Mik said in Trumpenomics:

That's not the problem he's trying to fix. It's manufacturing capability as national security. All this rise of the middle class and good jobs is smoke. We need more steel and aluminum made here, alongside chips, etc.

Specific industries can be (and are) subsidized internally. I suspect you've misread his actual intentions here, and that his actual intentions are closer to his actual talking points.

@Mik said in Trumpenomics:

@Horace said in Trumpenomics:

@Axtremus said in Trumpenomics:

#3 can happen after the Democrats win big in the mid-term.

Two years of this madness will be enough time for the Dems to gain credit for saving the economy, if they end the tariffs. If they do it now, with some GOP help, Trump takes only a small hit, and he'll be able to retail the idea that the tariffs would have worked if they'd been given a chance.

As Matt Yglesias opens today's email with:

Well, “Liberation Day” has arrived and it sucks, but Trump’s taste for terrible trade policy may be American democracy’s best hope, so I have mixed feelings about the whole thing.

I assume these sorts of mixed feelings are shared by lots of Democrats, and so I'm a little surprised they would try to end the tariffs right now. But once the legislation is on the floor, which I hope happens as soon as possible, I guess they'll have to vote to end them, or take responsibility for them.

And nowhere does Mr. Yglesias state what he would suggest doing about the problems Trump is trying, however well or badly, to address. he just snipes from the gallery. Pundits gotta pundit.

It's not hard to meaningfully criticize, when doing nothing would have been much better than doing something. Your premise that Trump is addressing a problem, is flawed. Trade imbalances are not a problem. People in poorer countries doing America's dirty work making cheap products and selling them to us, is not a problem.

@AndyD said in Trumpenomics:

Jolly said in Trumpenomics:
I'm just sitting back, enjoying the show.

...I guess you have that in common with a good chunk of the left...

And other wealthy folk who won't be affected financially by these taxes. Including your bumchum Trump (CF)

I doubt wealthy people are enjoying this, either. Buffet maybe, who's got tons of cash on the sidelines, waiting for an opportunity like this.

@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

@jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

Good to see that you, Adam, and whoever made the meme still don’t get it.

As I mentioned several times already, still better than the alternative…

Cold comfort for the Trump haters.

But I can't see a clip from that movie, and not mention that it is one of the greatest comedies of all time.

@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

@Horace said in Trumpenomics:

The fact that the market plunged after he announced the tariffs, is proof that very few people thought he'd do this. If they thought he'd do this, it would have been priced in after he was elected. The idea that Trump cared about the stock market, was generally agreed upon.

In a way, I think that’s what made this necessary. IF this is about leverage, then it wouldn’t be a very good tool if nobody thought he would really go through with it. To his way of thinking he had no choice. I still think it’s entirely possible that within 2 weeks there are a number of reworked trade deals and things are looking far rosier. You’ll see a handful of promises to restore manufacturing and the markets will be euphoric for a few weeks.

That would be nice, but I am not optimistic. I do think some very high tariffs will be reduced through negotiations, but I don't know if the flat 10% across the board will be negotiable. I will watch the Vietnam thing, to get an indicator if Trump is willing to reduce tariffs below 10% on any country.

Since these are not real reciprocal tariffs, a country can't simply reduce tariffs on America to zero, and expect America to reciprocate that.

I think Trump is really excited about this revenue. It's like he's living out the fantasy of someone who bought a bridge, and will now charge the tolls.

@Jolly said in Trumpenomics:

No, I just think I understand what's happening and how Trump is rolling the economic dice.

...

Will it work? Again, I dunno.

There's plenty of information available to help you tune your intuitions about this.

The fact that the market plunged after he announced the tariffs, is proof that very few people thought he'd do this. If they thought he'd do this, it would have been priced in after he was elected. The idea that Trump cared about the stock market, was generally agreed upon.

If you start counting the market drop from the time it started becoming clear he was serious, after he took office, we're at a 20% drawdown on America's piggy bank. The 12% over the past two days has been a continuation of the slow realization of how serious he is about the tariffs. No telling where it stops, but permanent tariffs, at least until 2028, would surely cause more beatings, at least until morale improved. I'm worried about companies going out of business, and the job losses from that. You can't suffocate efficiency in highly tuned economic systems without suffocating a bunch of jobs out of existence. And the lead time to create new jobs will be significant, in that best case scenario where there's a point to this all.

@Jolly said in Trumpenomics:

I'm just sitting back, enjoying the show.

I guess you have that in common with a good chunk of the left.

@Axtremus said in Trumpenomics:

@Horace said in Trumpenomics:

... But this economic destruction won't be forgiven or go unnoticed by enough people, no matter what happens next.

Well, similar things were said with regards to the January 6 Capitol tourist event.

Not by me. I would always have said that the price of eggs would be considered more important than J6. But the price of eggs won't be more important than material impacts to the retirements of 10s of millions of Americans. (Not to mention that inflation will get worse with these tariffs.)

@xenon said in Trumpenomics:

Is it ok for the rest of the GOP to call Trump stupid yet? I hope we get there sooner than later.

Trump has the ability to remain retarded longer than we can remain solvent.

I really think it's over for Maga even now. Like, done deal. They may not realize it yet. But this economic destruction won't be forgiven or go unnoticed by enough people, no matter what happens next. Trump was elected by 1% of the vote, one person in 100 deciding to vote Trump over Harris. 50% of the country has skin in the market, and circa 0% of them are hoping to work in a factory someday. I think it's safe for the GOP to call Trump out, but I know that'll have to gradually dawn on them. I expect the congresspeople's phones are hot since yesterday, hotter today and over the weekend, and as long as this insanity lasts.

@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

@Jolly said in Trumpenomics:

Y'all may not believe it, but Donald J. Trump is a master at holding a grudge.

Word is, his State Department (and Trump) were pissed during Trump's first term, because of China's reluctance to come anywhere near reciprocity on tariffs.

Maybe...There are countries we are willing to run trade deficits with. Countries we know are not going to buy much from us.

Maybe Trump is willing to let countries run a trade surplus against us, if we have low, reciprocal tariffs. Maybe we try to cut China out in favor of Vietnam or India.

I dunno.

But I think it's fixin' to get interesting...

That makes 0 sense in regards to the actions being taken. You realize that S Korea and fucking Japan have just agreed to act in concert with China in response? He is strengthening China.

As Shapiro notes, other nations have to cooperate for any of this to play to America's advantage. China has a lot more staying power through pain, with its permanent government. They won't cooperate. They'll just wait.

@Jolly said in Trumpenomics:

But I think it's fixin' to get interesting...

"Interesting" got here a while ago.

I would expect a prosperous nation of consumers to have huge trade deficits with less prosperous nations.

I wish I knew how trade deficits got confused with tariff differences. But it's not confusion, it's just opportunistic false messaging.

@kluurs said in Trumpenomics:

A guy with a small business that ships in containers at a cost of $50K from China notes the increase in the cost of goods...from 36 cents in 2024 to $5.76 per unit now. He figures the business will fold in 2025.

I think a lot of business will be going under, and a lot of jobs will be lost. So many businesses operate on low margins.

@Wim I'm sure there are a number of definitions of a square that the keyhole violates.

It's actually surprising to me how legitimately stupid even the calculation is. I did not expect this level of disconnect from reality, when playing around with economic heavy machinery capable of doing this much destruction.

@Axtremus said in Trumpenomics:

#3 can happen after the Democrats win big in the mid-term.

Two years of this madness will be enough time for the Dems to gain credit for saving the economy, if they end the tariffs. If they do it now, with some GOP help, Trump takes only a small hit, and he'll be able to retail the idea that the tariffs would have worked if they'd been given a chance.

As Matt Yglesias opens today's email with:

Well, “Liberation Day” has arrived and it sucks, but Trump’s taste for terrible trade policy may be American democracy’s best hope, so I have mixed feelings about the whole thing.

I assume these sorts of mixed feelings are shared by lots of Democrats, and so I'm a little surprised they would try to end the tariffs right now. But once the legislation is on the floor, which I hope happens as soon as possible, I guess they'll have to vote to end them, or take responsibility for them.

@Mik said in Funny Pics:

That's clever.

It's either 2 or 3 IMO. 2 has a better chance of happening before too much damage is done. I doubt he knows how much damage he's already done to the Maga brand. Of course, I can only project. I'm sure I care more about this stuff than the average Trump voter. 20 years ago I was sort of glad to see the housing and stock market crash.

But his older supporters are feeling this.