Baby Bust. Low Birth Rates.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/06/baby-bust-wont-end-without-government-action/
“The most recent CDC data on the total fertility rate — how many babies a woman could be expected to have over her lifetime, if age-specific fertility rates stayed constant over time — suggest that the average woman will have just 1.6 children.”
That number needs to be at least 2.1 to keep the population from shrinking.
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Tax something more, you get less of it.
While this isn't necessarily a tax, the more children a couple has, the less income they have for things like housing, cars, etc.
The wife and I were kicking some of this around this morning...The pastor at the church is very Old Skool in some personal beliefs, one being that the husband makes the living and the wife stays home to take care of the children and run the household. His children have followed the same path. His boys (3) are either in the trades or are apprentices. One is married with two children. The girls(3)... One is married with two children. The other two are still in school. I suspect both married couples will be having more children.
Of the two married couples, the son is living in a trailer house on donated land. The girl is living in a nice home in the country, mainly because her husband grew up in a HVAC business where he worked with his dad (being very thrifty) and later joined the state police, where he has done well.
So, I guess big families can work, provided the income is there. But how often does one spouse make that kind of money?
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Mrs. Dr. Phibes wanted 4 kids right up to the point where we had 1 kid.
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Taiwan is down to 1.2 birthrate. It is a big problem and big news. The government is trying different things to increase it.
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China also reports record low birth rate and severe aging of its population going by its 2020 census:
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If you want a progressive social safety net - especially for old age - that goes hand in hand with neeing higher birth rates than where we are.
Deferred benefit social programs don't really work below replacement levels. Skimming off the top of other countries' human capital also seems less than progressive.
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Yup, it is a big problem in most developed countries.