Covid in India - It's a mysterie!
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Last September, India was confirming nearly 100,000 new coronavirus cases a day. It was on track to overtake the United States to become the country with the highest reported COVID-19 caseload in the world. Hospitals were full. The Indian economy nosedived into an unprecedented recession.
But four months later, India's coronavirus numbers have plummeted. Late last month, on Jan. 26, the country's Health Ministry confirmed a record low of about 9,100 new daily cases — in a country of nearly 1.4 billion people. It was India's lowest daily tally in eight months. On Monday, India confirmed about 11,000 cases.
"It's not that India is testing less or things are going underreported," says Jishnu Das, a health economist at Georgetown University. "It's been rising, rising — and now suddenly, it's vanished! I mean, hospital ICU utilization has gone down. Every indicator says the numbers are down."
Scientists say it's a mystery. They're probing why India's coronavirus numbers have declined so dramatically — and so suddenly, in September and October, months before any vaccinations began.
They're trying to figure out what Indians may be doing right and how to mimic that in other countries that are still suffering.
"It's the million-dollar question. Obviously, the classic public health measures are working: Testing has increased, people are going to hospitals earlier and deaths have dropped," says Genevie Fernandes, a public health researcher with the Global Health Governance Programme at the University of Edinburgh. "But it's really still a mystery. It's very easy to get complacent, especially because many parts of the world are going through second and third waves. We need to be on our guard."
Some of the things the article points to are
- Mask Mandates
- Climate
- Age of the Population
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@george-k said in Covid in India - It's a mysterie!:
More tidbits from the article:
In a survey of COVID-19 cases in India's Punjab state, Das, the health economist at Georgetown, found that 76% of patients there did not infect a single other person — though it's unclear why. He and his colleagues examined data collected from contact tracing and found that most patients who did infect others infected only a few other people, while a few patients infected many. Overall, 10% of cases accounted for 80% of infections
Millions of Indians also lack access to clean drinking water, sanitation and hygienic food. Some experts speculate that people with robust immune systems may be more likely to survive in India in the first place.
"All of us have pretty good immunity! Look at the average Indian: He or she has probably had malaria at some point in his life or typhoid or dengue," says Sayli Udas-Mankikar, an urban policy expert at the Observer Research Foundation in Mumbai. "You end up with basic immunity toward grave diseases."
On herd immunity:
Last week, preliminary findings from a fifth serological study of 28,000 people in India's capital showed that 56% of residents already have antibodies, though a final report has not yet been published. The figures were higher in more crowded areas. Last summer, another survey by Mumbai's health department and a government think tank found that 57% of Mumbai slum-dwellers and 16% of people living in other areas had antibodies suggesting prior exposure to the coronavirus.
But many experts caution that herd immunity — a controversial term, they say — would only begin to be achieved if at least 60% to 80% of the population had antibodies. It's also unclear whether antibodies convey lasting immunity and, if so, for how long. More serological surveys are needed, they say.
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What’s amazing is that in the US this population would be considered most at risk given socio economic status.
Something doesn’t add up if it’s true that in the US we were the worst at managing COVID. Convince me India did a better job. My frame of reference is slumdog millionaire.
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Definitely could be something with the immune system.
First time I went to India, I got pretty sick from something I ate (I think). For about 4 days, my "triangle" was bed --> bathroom --> refrigerator for water --> bed Repeat as needed. LOL
After that however, I really never had any stomach problems.
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@taiwan_girl said in Covid in India - It's a mysterie!:
Definitely could be something with the immune system.
First time I went to India, I got pretty sick from something I ate (I think). For about 4 days, my "triangle" was bed --> bathroom --> refrigerator for water --> bed Repeat as needed. LOL
After that however, I really never had any stomach problems.
I was thinking that and some level of herd immunity. It had to have spread like wildfire in India.
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@loki said in Covid in India - It's a mysterie!:
It had to have spread like wildfire in India.
Exactly. That's what I posted back in March/April, saying, to effect, "Wait 'til it hit India."
Well, it did, and...
Of course hydroxychloroquin is available over-the-counter in India. -
India's Pandemic Death Toll Estimated At About 4 Million: 10 Times The Official Count
How many people have died of COVID-19 since the pandemic began?
The official global total as of this week: 4.1 million.
But everyone agrees the true toll is far greater. A study released on Tuesday looks at how much of a disparity there may be in India, one of the epicenters of the pandemic.
The analysis, from the Center for Global Development, a think tank in Washington, D.C., looks at the number of "excess deaths" that occurred in India between January 2020 and June 2021 – in other words, how many more people died during that period than during a similar period of time in 2019 or other recent years.
Drawing death data from civil registries and other sources, the report came up with three estimates for undercounts. The conclusion is that between 3.4 and 4.7 million more people died in that pandemic period than would have been predicted. That's up to 10 times higher than the Indian government's official death toll of 414,482.
The researchers looked at India in particular because, says study co-author Justin Sandefur, the country has been hit so hard by COVID-19. "The second wave in particular led to heart-wrenching stories from friends and colleagues – and a sense that official numbers are not capturing the true scale of that toll."
But COVID death undercounts are happening almost everywhere. In the United States, the official toll is 500,000 but the real number is closer to 700,000, says Ali Mokdad of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). The group's website has a global rundown that estimates "excess mortality" in many countries during the pandemic.
When counting "excess deaths," the cause of death is not part of the data set. But during a health crisis like the pandemic, the assumption is that these additional deaths are part of the COVID-19 toll, says Mokdad. They reflect not only those who died of the virus but those who might have died, say, of heart disease or diabetes because they were afraid to seek treatment during lockdowns, and those who killed themselves due to pandemic stresses, he adds.
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It's been obvious that Modi's government is more interested in optics than honesty from the word go. They've threatened and intimidated people who spoke out, or didn't toe the optimistic party line.
I'm no expert, but...
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@doctor-phibes said in Covid in India - It's a mysterie!:
It's been obvious that Modi's government is more interested in optics than honesty from the word go.
Not sure if I can attribute this to their desire for good optics vs sheer incompetence and/or denial.
Regardless to have the number, if true, off by an order of magnitude is yuge.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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@george-k said in Covid in India - It's a mysterie!:
@doctor-phibes said in Covid in India - It's a mysterie!:
It's been obvious that Modi's government is more interested in optics than honesty from the word go.
Not sure if I can attribute this to their desire for good optics vs sheer incompetence and/or denial.
Regardless to have the number, if true, off by an order of magnitude is yuge.
Well, to be fair, many people were accusing Modi of press intimidation before Covid, so it could just be coincidental.
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My feeling is that there is a monstrous cover-up in both China and India, and monstrous is the right word to use.
The irony of these idiotic conspiracy theories being so popular in the west, when there's a very real chance of an awful conspiracy of silence in the east, is very sad.
I'm no expert, but...
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@doctor-phibes said in Covid in India - It's a mysterie!:
My feeling is that there is a monstrous cover-up in both China and India, and monstrous is the right word to use.
And Iran and Russia...though the polupulations are not of the same magnitude.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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@george-k said in Covid in India - It's a mysterie!:
@doctor-phibes said in Covid in India - It's a mysterie!:
My feeling is that there is a monstrous cover-up in both China and India, and monstrous is the right word to use.
And Iran and Russia...though the polupulations are not of the same magnitude.
You can tell the countries that have the best governments, as they're the ones where people publicly say the government is covering stuff up the whole time without disappearing.
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33 districts in Uttar Pradesh are now Covid-free: State govt
Overall, the state has a total of 199 active cases, while the positivity rate came down to less than 0.01 per cent.
There are no active cases of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) in 33 districts of Uttar Pradesh, the state government informed on Friday. About 67 districts have not reported a single new case of the viral infection in the last 24 hours, the government said, noting the steady improvement of the Covid-19 situation in the state.
The 33 Covid free districts include Aligarh, Amroha, Ayodhya, Baghpat, Ballia, Balrampur, Banda, Basti, Bahraich, Bijnor, Bhadohi, Chitrakoot, Chandauli, Etah, Deoria, Fatehpur, Ghazipur, Gonda, Hamirpur, Hapur, Hardoi, Hathras, Kasganj, Lalitpur and Mahoba. The list also includes Moradabad, Muzaffarnagar, Pilibhit, Rampur, Saharanpur, Shamli, Siddharth Nagar, and Sonbhadra, according to the state government data.
Overall, the state has a total of 199 active cases, while the positivity rate came down to less than 0.01 per cent. The recovery rate, meanwhile, has improved to 98.7 per cent. As per the state's health bulletin, Uttar Pradesh reported only 11 new Covid-19 cases and zero deaths in the last 24 hours. The fresh cases came out of 2.26 lakh samples that were tested in the last 24 hours. As of Friday, the state government has conducted 7.42 crore tests, according to the data published by Uttar Pradesh's health department.
Meanwhile, the overall nationwide tally climbed to 33,174,954 after recording 34,973 cases in the last 24 hours. This was around 19% lower than Thursday when the country had logged 43,263 fresh infections. The death toll stands at 442,009.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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@george-k said in Covid in India - It's a mysterie!:
33 districts in Uttar Pradesh are now Covid-free: State govt
Overall, the state has a total of 199 active cases, while the positivity rate came down to less than 0.01 per cent.
And there was I thinking the most ridiculous thing I was going to read all week was that bloke's bollocks swelling up after getting vaccinated.
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@doctor-phibes said in Covid in India - It's a mysterie!:
@george-k said in Covid in India - It's a mysterie!:
33 districts in Uttar Pradesh are now Covid-free: State govt
Overall, the state has a total of 199 active cases, while the positivity rate came down to less than 0.01 per cent.
And there was I thinking the most ridiculous thing I was going to read all week was that bloke's bollocks swelling up after getting vaccinated.
Another view on India from India
